Oil prices continue to swing on shifting US–Iran headlines, after fresh signs of another breakdown in talks lifted crude. Mixed messages from Washington have kept the market reactive, with prices repeatedly moving on rapid changes in the narrative around negotiations.
Geopolitical and supply-side risks have also added to volatility. Iran has issued threats against vessels transiting the Bab el‑Mandeb, a narrow Red Sea chokepoint through which a major share of global energy shipments passes, while Saudi Arabia has diverted a large amount of crude exports from the Persian Gulf towards the Red Sea route. Separately, Russia has banned jet fuel exports until the end of November following a surge in Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure; Russia is a marginal jet fuel exporter, shipping around 30k b/d.
Heightened Oil Market Volatility Driven By Geopolitical Risks
We are seeing that oil prices are being whipsawed by headlines, especially concerning the US and Iran. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has climbed over 15% in the last two weeks, reflecting this market nervousness. This suggests any breakdown in talks will likely continue to push prices higher in the short term.
We are paying close attention to Iranian threats against ships in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a chokepoint for over 6 million barrels of oil per day. Historically, even minor disruptions in key shipping lanes, like the events in the Strait of Hormuz in 2019, have caused immediate price spikes of 5-10%. The market is not pricing in the full risk of a closure, creating a potential opportunity.
Strategic Approaches And Tightening Fundamentals
Given this unpredictable environment, we believe holding long volatility positions is the prudent strategy for the coming weeks. Buying out-of-the-money call options or bull call spreads on WTI or Brent for July and August 2026 expirations could offer an effective way to gain upside exposure. This approach limits risk while capitalizing on the sharp price moves that follow each new headline.
Russia’s jet fuel export ban, while small, adds pressure to a market we already see as stretched thin. Recent data showing global oil inventories drawing down for the third consecutive week confirms there is little slack in the system. This backdrop means even minor supply disruptions can have an outsized impact on prices, reinforcing our bullish bias.
