BNY said the Korean won remained under pressure even as South Korea’s headline inflation accelerated, a mix that leaves policymakers balancing currency weakness against price stability. Inflation rose to 3.1% year on year in May, the fastest pace in 26 months, driven by higher oil costs and a weaker won that lifted import prices for petroleum products such as petrol and diesel. The backdrop keeps the Bank of Korea in a hawkish posture and keeps rate rises in play.
In Indonesia, activity signals were uneven, with PMI data pointing to fragile manufacturing conditions, while inflation surprised on the high side. Consumer prices increased 3.08% year on year in May, up from 2.42% in April, and that followed Bank Indonesia’s 50 bp rate rise in May. External pricing pressures also firmed, as Indonesia’s export and import price indices for Q1 both rose strongly, alongside a solid trade surplus that complicates the outlook for the rupiah.
Foreign Exchange Market Reaction to Local Data
We are seeing continued weakness in the Korean Won, which is unusual given that high inflation should support a hawkish Bank of Korea. May’s trade surplus figures recently came in below expectations due to high energy import costs, helping push the USD/KRW pair above the 1380 level. We believe buying USD/KRW call options is a sensible way to position for further Won depreciation, as external pressures seem to be outweighing local monetary policy.
For Indonesia, the situation is complex as Bank Indonesia’s rate hikes are occurring alongside signs of fragile manufacturing. The latest S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May dipped to 51.9, and a small decline in foreign reserves suggests the central bank is actively defending the Rupiah. This conflicting data makes long volatility trades, such as an options straddle on the USD/IDR, more attractive than taking a simple directional view.
Impact of US Dollar Strength and Global Sentiment
This regional currency pressure isn’t happening in a vacuum; it reflects a broader theme of US dollar strength. US 10-year Treasury yields remaining firm around 4.5% are pulling capital away from emerging markets. This powerful external factor is likely to overpower local central bank actions in the coming weeks.
The current environment is reminiscent of the 2022 period when aggressive Federal Reserve tightening led to broad-based emerging market currency weakness. Historically, even when Asian central banks hike rates, their currencies can remain under pressure if global risk sentiment is poor. We expect this pattern to hold, meaning we should not be quick to bet on a reversal for the Won or Rupiah.
