Sterling rose about 0.19% against the US dollar on Tuesday, with GBP/USD trading near 1.3470 after rebounding from an intraday low of 1.3446. Risk appetite improved after Donald Trump intervened in the Israel–Hezbollah conflict and markets also tracked expectations of a US–Iran peace deal. US equities moved back towards record territory, while softer energy prices eased pressure on the pound; WTI was down 0.40% at $92.07.
OCBC shifted its GBP stance from bearish to neutral, pointing to easing fiscal concerns and supportive carry, even as UK data remained soft and political risks persisted. The bank revised its end-2026 EUR/GBP forecast to 0.87 from 0.89, while also flagging stretched short positioning and the scope for lower oil prices as a constraint on sterling downside. The US dollar weakened as risk aversion faded following a partial ceasefire: Trump said Israel agreed to pull back troops preparing to attack Beirut and Hezbollah-controlled suburbs, and that Hezbollah pledged through intermediaries not to attack Israel.
Volatility Declines and Option Strategies
With geopolitical risk easing, we see a reduction in market fear, which should lower currency volatility. The VIX Index, a key measure of fear, has fallen over 8% in the last week to 13.5, signaling a calmer environment. For traders, this makes selling options more attractive, as the premiums are still relatively rich from the recent uncertainty.
The drop in oil prices toward $92 per barrel is a significant tailwind for the Pound. As a net energy importer, lower energy costs for the UK reduce inflationary pressures and improve the country’s trade balance. This fundamental support should provide a floor for GBP/USD, especially when compared to the 2022 energy crisis which saw the pair fall below 1.10 when oil and gas prices soared.
Given the shift from a bearish to a neutral outlook, we believe implied volatility in GBP/USD options will continue to decline. One-month implied volatility has already compressed from over 8.5% to around 7.2%, but we expect it could fall further towards the 6.5% yearly average. Therefore, we favor strategies that profit from this decline, such as selling strangles with strikes outside the expected 1.3350-1.3550 range.
US Data, Positioning, and Tactical Trading Views
We must remain cautious, however, due to the resilience of the US economy. The most recent Non-Farm Payrolls report added a stronger-than-expected 225,000 jobs in May 2026, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates high. This underlying dollar strength will likely cap any significant rallies in the Pound above the 1.3550 resistance level.
The large number of speculative short positions against the Pound, as noted in recent CFTC reports, means the currency is vulnerable to a “short squeeze.” This technical factor reinforces our view that downside is limited, and we would not initiate new bearish positions. Instead, we are looking at buying dips in the spot market while selling out-of-the-money call options to fund the position.
Over the coming weeks, our strategy is to treat GBP/USD as a range-bound asset. We will look to buy call spreads on weakness towards the 1.3400 handle, anticipating a bounce. Conversely, we will consider buying put spreads if the price pushes towards the 1.3550 resistance level, betting that strong US data will prevent a major breakout.
