Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret say gold is trading in a tight consolidation around $4,500/oz. They describe the price action as sitting at the lower boundary of a descending triangle, a technical pattern typically associated with downside pressure, even as spot holds its ground for now.
The bank links the risk-off tone to Monday’s shift in mood after Iran announced it had ceased negotiations with the US in protest over Israel. That development left markets trading defensively during the session, while gold maintained its range near $4,500/oz despite the bearish technical setup.
Bearish Technicals and Macroeconomic Pressures
We are watching gold prices consolidate in a tight range around the $4500/oz level. This price action is forming the base of a descending triangle, a technical pattern that typically resolves to the downside. While the market is holding this support for now, the formation signals increasing downside risk in the coming weeks.
This bearish technical outlook is reinforced by a stronger US dollar and rising bond yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield has recently climbed back above 4.6%, making non-yielding gold less attractive for investors to hold. With the May jobs report due this Friday, any sign of persistent economic strength could send yields even higher and pressure gold further.
Positioning and Strategy Considerations
Market positioning data also supports a cautious stance on gold. Recent CFTC reports show that large speculators have trimmed their net-long positions for the second consecutive week, a sign that conviction among bulls is fading. We’ve also noted consistent outflows from major gold-backed ETFs, which saw over $600 million in withdrawals through the last half of May.
Given this backdrop, we believe derivative traders should consider positioning for a breakdown below the $4500 support. Buying put options with July expiration dates offers a clear way to capitalize on a potential drop while defining risk. For those looking to reduce premium costs, establishing bearish put spreads could be an effective strategy.
The current geopolitical tension, with Iran halting negotiations, is providing some temporary support, but we see this as insufficient to counter the negative technical and macroeconomic pressures. Implied volatility in gold options has been rising, suggesting the market is bracing for a decisive move out of this consolidation. We will be watching for a daily close below $4500 as the trigger to increase bearish exposure.
