Key Points
- USDX traded near 100.08 after reaching a two-month high around 100.17 overnight.
- Stronger US non-farm payrolls pushed markets to price in a 25-basis-point Fed rate rise by year-end.
- Traders are watching 100.14 resistance and 99.94 support as the next short-term range.
USDX held near 100.08 as the dollar stayed supported by stronger US jobs data, higher rate expectations, and renewed safe-haven demand.
Friday’s stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report encouraged markets to price in a quarter-point Fed rate rise by year-end, with another increase expected next year. The Federal Reserve is now in its communication blackout period before the 17 June policy decision, which leaves little room for officials to push back against market pricing.
The dollar also drew support from renewed Israel-Iran strikes. Higher geopolitical risk can lift demand for safe-haven currencies, while rising oil prices may add pressure to inflation expectations.
Why Traders Are Watching This
Traders are watching USDX because the dollar has a clear short-term support base.
The Fed blackout period reduces the chance of a verbal reset before the policy meeting. That means the dollar may remain firm if traders continue to price in tighter policy and higher-for-longer rates.
The Middle East conflict also adds another layer of support. If oil prices keep rising, markets may worry about renewed inflation pressure. That could make it harder for the Fed to soften its tone, which may keep USDX bid in the near term.
Still, the chart shows a tight consolidation after the latest jump. The dollar needs a clean break above resistance to extend momentum.
Key Trading Levels
| Level | What Traders Are Watching |
| 100.25 | Wider resistance zone |
| 100.14 | Intraday high and breakout resistance |
| 100.08 | Current trade zone |
| 100.05 | 5-period moving average |
| 100.05 | 10-period moving average |
| 100.03 | 20-period moving average |
| 99.94 | Intraday support |
| 99.1 | Lower chart support |
USDX is trading above its short-term moving averages, with the 5-period MA at 100.052, the 10-period MA at 100.050, and the 20-period MA at 100.031.
That keeps the near-term structure tilted toward buyers. However, the moving averages are tightly packed, which shows momentum has slowed after the earlier rally.
A clean move above 100.14 would strengthen the bullish setup and bring 100.25 into focus. If USDX clears that zone, traders may look toward the wider 100.65 resistance area.
A drop below 99.94 would weaken the current range and suggest that buyers are losing control.
Bullish and Bearish Setups
| Setup | Trigger | Potential Market Reaction |
| Bullish Breakout | Move above 100.14 | Buyers may target 100.25, then 100.65 |
| Pullback Setup | Hold above 100.03 | Traders may watch for renewed buying interest |
| Bearish Break | Move below 99.94 | Sellers may target 99.63 |
| Deeper Pullback | Break below 99.63 | Downside may extend toward 99.32 |
The bullish setup depends on USDX holding above the moving average cluster and breaking above 100.14. That would show buyers are ready to extend the post-payrolls move.
The pullback setup may become cleaner if price dips toward 100.03 to 100.05 and stabilises. This would suggest the dollar is consolidating rather than reversing.
The bearish setup builds only if USDX falls below 99.94. A break under that level would weaken the short-term structure and bring the lower support zones back into view.
Disclaimer
The price levels and trade scenarios above reflect the author’s view at the time of writing and do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.
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What to Watch Next
Traders should watch 100.14 resistance and 99.94 support.
A break above 100.14 could keep the dollar supported and open the path toward 100.25, followed by 100.65 if momentum strengthens. A move below 99.94 would weaken the short-term setup and bring 99.63 back into focus.
The next major driver is the 17 June Fed policy decision. Before then, Middle East headlines, oil prices, and any shift in rate expectations could guide the next move for USDX.
FAQs
Why Is USDX Rising?
USDX is rising as stronger US jobs data supports expectations for tighter Fed policy. Renewed Israel-Iran strikes also lifted safe-haven demand for the dollar.
What Is the Key Level to Watch for USDX?
The key upside level is 100.14. A break above this area could support a move toward 100.25 and possibly 100.65. On the downside, 99.94 is the first support level to watch.
Can USDX Move Higher?
USDX could move higher if traders keep pricing in Fed rate hikes and geopolitical risk supports safe-haven demand. A clean break above 100.14 would strengthen the short-term bullish setup.
Why Does the Fed Blackout Period Matter?
The Fed blackout period limits public comments from policymakers before the policy decision. This means officials have little room to push back against market pricing before the 17 June meeting.
Can I Trade USDX With VT Markets?
Yes. VT Markets offers access to USDX CFDs, allowing traders to take a view on rising or falling US dollar index moves without owning the underlying currency basket. Traders can also access forex, gold, oil, indices, shares, ETFs, and other CFD markets from one platform.
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