Gold (XAU/USD) slid to about $4,050 in early Asian trade on Thursday, its lowest level since November 2025, as markets weighed firmer US inflation against heightened Middle East tensions that are reinforcing expectations for a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve stance. US Central Command said the US began strikes in Iran on Wednesday, describing the action as a response to Iran’s “unwarranted and continued aggression”, following President Donald Trump’s warning that Washington would hit Iran “very hard” again.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed Consumer Price Index inflation accelerated to 4.2% year on year in May from 3.8% in April, the highest in three years and in line with expectations. On the month, CPI rose 0.5%, while core CPI increased 0.2% month on month and 2.9% year on year. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at its June meeting, yet futures pricing points to a hike by year-end as inflation pressures build, a backdrop that tends to weigh on non-yielding bullion.
Fed Policy Response Remains the Dominant Force
Given the hot 4.2% CPI reading, we believe the market will continue to focus on the Federal Reserve’s response to inflation over the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The expectation of higher-for-longer interest rates is the dominant force right now. Therefore, our immediate bias for gold in the coming weeks is bearish, targeting a break below the psychological $4,000 level.
The CME FedWatch Tool now shows an 85% probability of at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by the September meeting, a sharp increase from just 50% last week. As a non-yielding asset, gold becomes significantly less attractive as the opportunity cost of holding it rises with interest rates. We expect this repricing by the market to continue putting downward pressure on the precious metal.
Trading Strategies and Historical Parallel
We have seen the Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) jump to 22.5, reflecting the heightened uncertainty from both the inflation data and the geopolitical news. This elevated implied volatility makes selling premium an attractive strategy for us. We are looking at selling out-of-the-money call spreads to capitalize on both the expected price ceiling for gold and the rich premium available.
For those with a stronger directional conviction, shorting gold futures contracts is the most direct play on this hawkish Fed narrative. However, we must remain cautious, as a significant escalation of US military action in Iran could trigger a sudden safe-haven rally that invalidates this trade. We recommend using tight stop-losses on any short positions to manage this headline risk.
This market environment is reminiscent of the early 1980s, when the Volcker-led Fed’s aggressive rate hikes crushed gold prices despite high inflation and geopolitical instability. History shows that when a central bank is determined to fight inflation, it creates a powerful headwind for precious metals. We see a similar dynamic unfolding, which reinforces our bearish outlook.
