China’s May indicators pointed to steady factory output but weaker demand conditions, according to Standard Chartered’s assessment of survey and activity data. The official manufacturing PMI eased to 50.0 from 50.3, falling short of consensus expectations, while both the new orders index and the new export orders measure moved into contraction territory, signalling a softer pipeline of demand.
Even so, industrial production was expected to regain some momentum, with IP growth seen at 5.0% year on year in May after 4.1% in April, underpinned by robust export activity and support from high-tech manufacturing. By contrast, fixed asset investment was forecast to contract 2.0% year on year over 5M-2025 as the housing downturn persisted, and credit growth was projected to slow further as demand remained subdued.
Persistent Weakness in Domestic Demand
We see China’s recent May data revealing a clear divide between resilient production and weakening domestic demand. The official manufacturing PMI for May dipped to 49.5, falling back into contractionary territory and signaling that factory output is outpacing new orders. This suggests inventories may be building up, which could pressure prices downwards in the near future.
This demand weakness is centered on the ongoing property crisis and hesitant consumer spending. Last month, new home prices in 70 major cities fell for the eleventh consecutive month, and growth in total social financing hit a record low, confirming that credit demand remains subdued. This continued slump in real estate will likely keep a lid on fixed asset investment for the foreseeable future.
Resilient Industrial Production and Strategic Implications
On the other hand, industrial production has been surprisingly strong, growing at 6.7% in May, buoyed by robust export activity, particularly in high-tech sectors. However, the PMI’s new export orders sub-index has slipped below 50, indicating this external support might soon fade. This creates a precarious situation where current strength is masking future vulnerability.
In the coming weeks, we believe this divergence calls for strategies that capitalize on domestic weakness. Traders should consider buying put options on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) or ETFs focused on Chinese real estate and banking sectors. These positions would profit from the persistent drag of the housing downturn and sluggish consumer sentiment.
At the same time, the conflicting economic signals between strong current production and weakening future orders will likely increase market volatility. This makes long volatility positions, such as buying straddles on key Chinese indices, an attractive proposition. We also see opportunities in shorting industrial commodity futures, like copper and iron ore, as the outlook for domestic construction demand remains poor.
