The Australian dollar eased against the US dollar in early Asian trading on Monday, with AUD/USD slipping to about 0.7005 as risk-off conditions took hold. The move followed renewed uncertainty around US-Iran diplomacy after Donald Trump warned of restarting war, even as JD Vance held initial talks under an interim peace deal; Tehran also said it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters. The greenback drew support from safe-haven demand as concerns over a longer Middle East conflict lingered.
US monetary policy expectations also underpinned the USD. Traders have increasingly positioned for tighter Federal Reserve policy, with inflation pressures linked to the Iran conflict feeding bets that rate rises could begin within months. CME FedWatch pricing shows markets assigning more than a 90% probability of a Fed hike in December, up from 61% before the Fed decision. In Australia, the AUD remains sensitive to RBA rate settings and to commodity dynamics, with iron ore exports valued at $118 billion a year in 2021 and Chinese demand a key driver of trade balance outcomes.
Risk-Off Trading and the Australian Dollar’s Vulnerability
Given the renewed geopolitical uncertainty from the US-Iran situation, we are adopting a more defensive stance on risk-sensitive currencies. The Australian dollar is particularly vulnerable as traders move into safe-haven assets like the US dollar. We anticipate continued pressure on the AUD/USD pair, especially around the important 0.7000 psychological level.
This view is strengthened by the diverging paths of central banks. The latest US CPI data, showing inflation at 3.8%, has cemented expectations for a Fed rate hike, with fed funds futures now pricing in a 92% probability of a hike by December. In contrast, Australia’s recent inflation was a more manageable 2.9%, giving the Reserve Bank of Australia room to remain on hold.
Commodity Weakness and Strategic Positioning
The fundamentals supporting the Aussie dollar are also weakening. We have seen iron ore futures prices slide by 8% over the past month to below $100 per tonne amid fears that a global slowdown will curb demand. This directly impacts Australia’s export earnings and weighs on the currency’s value.
Furthermore, recent data from China, Australia’s largest trading partner, is not encouraging. Industrial production growth for May slowed to 4.5%, missing market expectations and signaling a softer economic momentum. A weaker China translates to less demand for Australian commodities, which is a significant headwind for the AUD.
In the coming weeks, we are looking at strategies that benefit from a falling AUD/USD. We are considering buying put options with strike prices below 0.7000, which provides a clear, defined risk for a bearish position. Implied volatility has already picked up to over 12% from 9% last month, showing the market is pricing in larger-than-usual price swings.
This market behavior is reminiscent of previous risk-off periods, such as the initial phase of the 2003 Iraq War. During that time, the AUD/USD pair dropped nearly 8% in a matter of weeks as capital flowed aggressively into the US dollar. History suggests that in times of significant Middle Eastern conflict, the greenback’s safe-haven appeal tends to dominate market sentiment.
