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VT 
The Australian dollar has found renewed support, helped by a rally across key commodities. Gold continues to hover close to record territory, underpinned by safe-haven flows amid global uncertainty and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut rates.
Oil has also pushed higher on the back of renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East, while iron ore advanced as Chinese steelmakers ramped up output following maintenance shutdowns.
For Australia, such commodity moves are crucial. As a resource-driven economy, stronger prices bolster the nation’s terms of trade and often translate into firmer demand for the Aussie dollar.
On the policy front, futures markets are currently pricing in an 86% chance of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut in November, though no adjustment is anticipated at September’s meeting. Inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, but the RBA remains cautious against a backdrop of global volatility.
Even so, risk appetite is being kept in check by international developments. Reports suggest that President Trump has pressed the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods, a move that heightens global trade tensions. Similar measures are reportedly under consideration in Washington, adding pressure to risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD.
Technical Overview
AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6597, up 0.20%, holding firm as it edges back towards the 0.6625 resistance level, last tested in August.
Since bottoming at 0.5921 in April, the pair has been carving out a steady recovery, supported by a series of higher lows and a gradually improving bullish structure.
The moving averages (5,10,30) are aligned positively, with price staying above the short-term averages. The MACD continues to trend higher, reinforcing bullish momentum.
If buyers manage to break past 0.6625, the pair could open the way toward 0.6700 in the near term.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.6500, with stronger backing near 0.6400. As long as the pair holds above these levels, the bias remains upward.
A Cautious Outlook
Despite the encouraging technicals and resilience of AUD/USD, traders may want to tread carefully.
A failure to break convincingly above 0.6625 could spark a corrective pullback towards the 0.6500 support area. Moreover, the pair remains sensitive to shifts in global sentiment, particularly around trade policy headlines and broader risk aversion.
With the RBA expected to keep rates unchanged this month and the Fed increasingly tipped to deliver cuts, any hawkish tilt from the RBA or dovish signal from the Fed could widen yield differentials in favour of the Aussie. Even so, escalating global tensions or a slowdown in Chinese demand could keep gains in check.
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