Insights 
VT 
The Australian dollar slipped on Thursday, trading just under 0.665 after a softer-than-expected employment report raised doubts about the labour market’s durability.
Total employment contracted by 5,400 in August, a stark miss compared with forecasts for a 21,500 increase. The decline came almost entirely from full-time jobs, which dropped by 40,900, a troubling sign that underlying momentum may be fading.
Although the jobless rate held steady at 4.2%, the participation rate edged down to 66.8%, hinting at a small retreat in the number of people actively seeking work.
Taken together, the figures suggest the labour market is gradually losing momentum.
Despite the weaker print, markets still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold steady in September, with only a 20% probability of a rate cut factored in. That likelihood, however, jumps to 70% for November, as inflation remains above target and policymakers continue to strike a guardedly hawkish tone.
Fed’s Measured Approach Adds To Global Pressures
Across the Pacific, the Federal Reserve delivered the widely anticipated 25-basis-point cut but flagged only two further reductions this year and a single move in 2026.
Chair Jerome Powell underscored a ‘risk management’ stance, choosing not to rush into deeper easing.
For the Australian dollar, the Fed’s cautious approach implies global yield spreads may narrow more slowly than markets had projected. That diminishes one potential source of support for the Aussie, particularly if the RBA cuts rates before the Fed acts again.
Technical Overview
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at 0.66498, showing a minor dip of 0.03%, but overall momentum remains bullish. Since rebounding from the April low of 0.59214, the pair has been in a steady uptrend, supported by higher lows and consistent buying pressure.
The recent breakout above the 0.6600 handle has pushed the currency towards its next resistance near 0.6650–0.6700.
From a technical standpoint, price action is well-supported by the moving averages, which continue to slope upward. The MACD remains in bullish territory, with the histogram showing rising momentum, suggesting buyers are still in control despite today’s slight pullback.
Looking ahead, immediate resistance is seen at 0.6700, and a decisive break above this level could extend gains towards 0.6800.
On the downside, initial support lies at 0.6500, with stronger protection around 0.6400. Unless the pair falls back below these zones, the broader outlook remains constructive for further upside.
Outlook: Cautious But Constructive
In the near term, AUD/USD is likely to consolidate between 0.6600 and 0.6660 while traders weigh the policy outlook for both the RBA and the Fed.
A sustained push through 0.6655 could pave the way towards 0.6700, though this may require either softer US economic data or a more dovish tilt from Australian policymakers.
Looking further out, prospects lean towards modest upside, particularly if the RBA delays easing and global risk sentiment remains steady.
However, any renewed weakness in labour market data or a slump in commodity prices could quickly change the picture, dragging the Aussie back below 0.6550.
