Insights 
VT 
Gold traded close to $3,860 per ounce on Thursday, holding just shy of record territory as investors assessed weaker US employment data alongside the fallout from Washington’s political stalemate.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates this year lent strong support to the non-interest-bearing asset.
The latest ADP report showed private-sector employment in the US contracted again in September, marking the first back-to-back monthly fall since 2020 and the steepest decline since March 2023.
These figures bolstered the view that the Fed will need to maintain its rate-cutting cycle to cushion the economy’s slowdown.
Adding to the uncertainty, the Labour Department confirmed that this week’s non-farm payrolls release would be postponed due to the government shutdown, depriving the Fed of a vital data point before its late-October policy meeting.
The partial closure of federal agencies has raised concerns over growth prospects, with thousands of positions now at risk and heightened uncertainty driving safe-haven demand.
In the background, a Supreme Court ruling on the contested status of Fed Governor Lisa Cook has helped ease institutional concerns. The decision reduced fears of disruptive leadership changes, reinforcing expectations of a dovish tilt in near-term policymaking.
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) is holding firm near record highs, trading at 3868.16, up 0.09% on the day. The metal continues its strong bullish momentum, extending the impressive rally that began in late August, driven by persistent safe-haven demand, softer U.S. yields, and renewed geopolitical uncertainty.
Technically, the uptrend remains intact. Gold is trading well above its 5-, 10-, and 30-day moving averages, with the short-term averages providing strong upward guidance.
The breakout above the 3600 resistance zone has now established a higher base, and momentum suggests buyers are preparing to test new highs beyond 3900. Key support rests at 3720–3750, followed by the breakout floor at 3327.65.
Momentum indicators reinforce the bullish bias. The MACD is deeply positive, with the MACD line holding above the signal line, while the histogram continues to print green, showing sustained upward momentum. However, the steep angle of the rally suggests overextension, meaning short-term pullbacks cannot be ruled out as traders book profits.
Cautious Forecast
In the near term, gold continues to look attractive on dips, with pullbacks toward $3,750–$3,800 expected to draw renewed buying interest.
A clean break above $3,900 could pave the way for a test of the psychological $4,000 threshold, but any slide beneath $3,720 would be the first warning of waning momentum.
