Key Points
- Spot gold held around 4,841.76, while June gold futures rose 0.3% to 4,866.50.
- The US dollar stayed near its weakest level in over a month, giving bullion extra support.
- Traders now see roughly a 30% to 33% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed cut this year, up from around 13% last week, but still far below the two cuts that had been expected before the war.
Gold prices held close to a one-week high as traders waited for clearer direction from US-Iran diplomacy. Spot gold was steady at 4,841.76 per ounce, while June futures rose 0.3% to 4,866.50. The market had already rallied strongly into the session, then shifted into wait-and-see mode rather than extending the move immediately.
The price action reflects a market balancing two forces. Hopes for fresh talks in Pakistan have reduced some of the panic around the conflict, but they have not removed uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz or the broader inflation shock that followed the war.
Soft Dollar Underpins Gains
The clearest support is coming from the currency side. The dollar stayed near its weakest level in more than a month, which made bullion cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
That has helped gold hold firm even as broader markets shifted into a more risk-on tone, with equities rising and oil pulling back on renewed talk of negotiations.
That matters because gold has not been rallying off pure fear alone. The move has also been driven by a weaker dollar and lower immediate pressure from oil. When both of those shift in gold’s favour at the same time, bullion can stay resilient even if the market is not fully defensive.
Rate-Cut Hopes Have Improved, but Only Slightly
Fed expectations have softened, though not enough to create a fully bullish rates backdrop for gold. Traders now see about a 30% to 33% chance of one 25-basis-point cut this year. That is up sharply from about 13% last week, but it is still well below the pre-war view that had allowed for two cuts in 2026.
That leaves gold in a middle ground. Lower yields and a softer dollar can help, but the market still knows the Fed may stay cautious if energy-driven inflation proves sticky. March producer prices rose less than expected, yet the annual pace still reached 4.0%, the highest since February 2023, with gasoline up 15.7%, jet fuel up 30.7%, and overall energy prices up 8.5%. Services prices were unchanged, which helped limit the monthly upside surprise.
XAUUSD Technical Outlook
XAUUSD is trading near 4849, edging higher after rebounding from the recent swing low around 4098, with the price now stabilising in the mid-range of its broader structure.
The recovery has been steady rather than aggressive, suggesting buyers are regaining control, but without the same momentum seen in the earlier rally toward the 5598 peak. Price is now pressing into a short-term consolidation zone, hinting at a potential base forming.
From a technical standpoint, the structure is shifting back toward a bullish recovery phase. Price has moved back above the 5-day (4789) and 10-day (4745) moving averages, which are beginning to turn upward and provide immediate support.
The 20-day (4643) sits below as a stronger base, indicating improving short-term sentiment, while the broader trend remains constructive as long as higher lows continue to form.
Key levels to watch:
- Support: 4780 → 4640 → 4410
- Resistance: 4900 → 5050 → 5280
Gold is currently testing the 4900 resistance area. A clean break above this level could open the door toward 5050, with further upside potential if bullish momentum builds.
On the downside, 4780 is acting as immediate support. A break below this level may lead to a deeper pullback toward 4640, though this would likely remain corrective unless price slips back into the prior range.
Overall, XAUUSD is showing early signs of recovery within a broader consolidation, with buyers gradually stepping back in. The next move depends on whether the price can push through 4900 or stalls and rotates back into range.
What Traders Should Watch Next
The next move depends on whether talks with Iran produce anything durable and whether US inflation data gives the market room to lean more clearly toward easier policy.
If the dollar stays soft and diplomacy reduces oil pressure further, gold can keep holding near the weekly highs. If talks stall and inflation stays sticky, bullion may struggle to do much more than trade sideways in the high 4,800s.
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Trader Questions
Why Is Gold Holding Near A One-Week High?
Gold is staying firm because a softer US dollar has improved demand, while traders are still treating the Iran talks as unresolved rather than settled. Spot gold was recently around 4,841.76, after hitting its highest level since April 8 earlier in the session.
Why Does A Weaker Dollar Support Gold Prices?
Gold is priced in dollars, so a weaker dollar makes bullion cheaper for buyers using other currencies. That usually improves demand and helps support prices. The dollar was trading near its weakest level in more than a month during the move higher in gold.
Why Has Gold Stayed Strong Even Though Markets Look More Risk-On?
Gold has been getting support from the softer dollar and slightly better rate-cut expectations, even as equities rose and oil pulled back. That mix has allowed bullion to stay firm without needing a full flight-to-safety move.
What Are Traders Watching In The Iran Talks?
The market wants to see whether talks in Pakistan lead to a more durable de-escalation and a clearer path for normalising traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Until that happens, traders are likely to keep some defensive demand in gold.
How Have Fed Rate Expectations Changed?
Traders now see roughly a 30% to 33% chance of one 25-basis-point Fed cut this year, up from around 13% last week. That is still much less dovish than the earlier expectation for two cuts before the war shock intensified.
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