Key Points
- XAU/USD traded at 4,514.49, up 18.33, or 0.41%, after reaching a session high of 4,522.38.
- Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,514.19 per ounce by 0610 GMT, after falling to a two-month low of $4,365.76 on Thursday.
- Gold remains on track to lose 2.4% for the month and about 15% over three months.
- US gold futures for August delivery inched 0.3% higher to $4,544.80.
Gold recovered on Friday as traders assessed reports that the US and Iran had reached an agreement to extend their ceasefire and lift shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. XAU/USD traded at 4,514.49, up 18.33, or 0.41%, at 05/29 09:44:14 GMT+3. The session high stood at 4,522.38, with a low of 4,489.01, an open at 4,496.01, and a close at 4,496.16.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,514.19 per ounce by 0610 GMT. The rebound came after gold fell to a two-month low of $4,365.76 on Thursday, before closing higher as ceasefire reports changed the tone. US gold futures for August delivery rose 0.3% to $4,544.80.
The bounce looks more like relief than a full trend reversal. Gold is still heading for a third straight monthly loss, with bullion on track to fall 2.4% for the month and about 15% over three months.
Ceasefire Deal Becomes The Main Catalyst
The market now waits for formal approval. Sources say that the US and Iran reached an agreement on Thursday to extend the ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The deal still needs President Donald Trump’s approval, while Iranian state media said it has not been finalised.
Brian Lan, managing director at GoldSilver Central, said the ceasefire report helped trigger the reversal after gold fell toward the $4,360 area. Traders now want confirmation that the deal will be signed, even if it remains only pending Trump’s approval for now.
That uncertainty keeps gold in a narrow balance. A signed deal would likely cool oil-linked inflation fears and weaken some safe-haven demand. A failure to approve the agreement could lift the dollar again and put renewed pressure on XAU/USD.
Fed Outlook Still Caps The Rebound
US inflation rose at its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by higher energy prices from the Iran conflict. That reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged well into next year.
This keeps gold under pressure. Bullion can act as an inflation hedge, but it pays no yield. When traders expect high rates to last longer, cash and bonds become more attractive than gold.
That is why the current rebound needs more than ceasefire headlines. XAU/USD needs lower oil, a softer dollar, and weaker Fed rate-risk pricing before buyers can rebuild a stronger bullish case.
Technical Analysis
Gold staged a modest rebound from recent lows, recovering above 4,500 after briefly testing the 4,390 area, though the broader trend remains under pressure.
- Current Price: 4,514
- MA5: 4,509
- MA10: 4,519
- MA20: 4,584
The bounce has pushed price back above the MA5, but gold still trades beneath both the MA10 and MA20, indicating that sellers retain control of the broader short-term structure. The recovery appears corrective rather than a full trend reversal at this stage.
The move higher comes as traders reassess recent dollar strength and lock in profits after gold’s sharp decline earlier in the week. However, the inability to reclaim the MA10 decisively suggests buying conviction remains limited.
Immediate resistance sits near 4,520–4,550, followed by the key 4,600 region. Support is now seen around 4,450, with stronger downside protection near 4,390.
The near-term bias remains cautiously bearish while price trades below the MA20, although a sustained break above 4,550–4,600 would be needed to signal a stronger recovery is underway.
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Cautious Forecast
Gold may stabilise while it holds above 4,489.01 and the 5-day moving average at 4,508.84. A break above 4,584.44 would support a recovery toward 4,848.65, especially if the US-Iran ceasefire extension receives final approval and oil continues to fall.
A move below 4,365.76 would warn that sellers are still in control and could expose 4,098.79. The next move depends on three signals: Trump’s approval of the ceasefire deal, oil’s ability to hold its weekly decline, and whether Fed rate expectations ease as energy inflation pressure fades.
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Trader Questions
Why Is Gold Rising Today?
Gold is rising today as traders react to reports that the US and Iran may extend their ceasefire and lift shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. XAU/USD traded at 4,514.49, up 18.33, or 0.41%.
What Is The Gold Price Today?
The gold price today is 4,514.49 for XAU/USD. The session high was 4,522.38, the low was 4,489.01, the open was 4,496.01, and the previous close was 4,496.16.
Why Did Gold Rebound From A Two-Month Low?
Gold rebounded after falling to a two-month low of $4,365.76 on Thursday. Reports of a US-Iran ceasefire extension helped trigger a reversal as traders waited for the deal to be formally signed.
Is Gold Still Falling This Month?
Yes. Gold is still on track to lose 2.4% for the month and about 15% over three months, despite the latest rebound.
How Are US-Iran Ceasefire Talks Affecting Gold?
US-Iran ceasefire talks are supporting gold in the short term by reducing panic around energy-led inflation and dollar strength. However, the deal still needs President Donald Trump’s approval, while Iranian state media said it has not been finalised.
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