Insights 
VT 
Gold strengthened on Friday, inching back towards the key $4,000 level as a softer US dollar and signs of labour market weakness revived expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut before the end of the year.
The prolonged US government shutdown has disrupted the flow of official economic indicators, leaving traders to rely on private-sector surveys that point to a cooling jobs market.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,996.72, while futures gained 0.3% to $4,004.40. Traders increased wagers on looser monetary policy, with markets now pricing in around a 69% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s 10 December meeting.
Gold, which yields no interest, tends to perform well when borrowing costs are low. The combination of weak data and political gridlock in Washington has led investors to adopt a more defensive stance.
Labour Market Weakness Fuels Safe-Haven Demand
Recent figures indicate that the US economy lost jobs in October, particularly in the government and retail sectors, as layoffs linked to automation and cost-cutting continue to rise. Challenger data showed a sharp increase in announced job cuts, adding weight to the narrative of a slowing labour market.
The US 10-year Treasury yield, which touched a one-month high on Thursday, later declined as investors moved back into bonds and bullion. With equity markets under pressure, gold regained its shine as a hedge against both policy uncertainty and stock volatility.
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) hovered close to $4,000, recovering from earlier dips as buying interest slowly returned. On the 15-minute chart, the metal appears to be consolidating after reaching an intraday peak near $4,019, with short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) converging, a signal of potential stabilisation.
The MACD has crossed into positive territory, indicating that bullish momentum may be regaining strength after a brief correction.
The latest rebound underscores renewed safe-haven flows, driven by soft US employment data and dovish expectations ahead of the December Fed meeting. Markets now assign roughly a 60% probability to a rate cut, while ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to lend support to gold.
However, the firm dollar and resilience in US Treasury yields remain near-term headwinds, keeping gold from making a clean breakout above the $4,020–$4,030 zone.
If gold holds above $3,990, buyers could push for a retest of the recent high and potentially aim for $4,050. A failure to maintain this level, however, risks a retreat toward $3,950, where deeper profit-taking could emerge.
For now, sentiment remains cautiously bullish. Gold’s broader trend stays intact, but its next decisive move will hinge on how the Fed frames its policy stance in the coming weeks.
Outlook
If the weak jobs story continues and the Fed signals further flexibility on rates, gold could extend its rally towards the $4,050–$4,080 range. A decisive move above $4,020 would strengthen the bullish case, setting up a potential retest of $4,100.
Conversely, if policymakers strike a more guarded tone or if bond yields rebound, gold may consolidate between $3,950–$4,000 in the short term. As long as prices stay above $3,940, the broader trend remains moderately upward.
