Insights 
VT 
The New Zealand dollar slipped to around $0.563 on Wednesday, continuing its decline amid mounting expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will implement another 25-basis-point rate cut next week.
Markets are now fully pricing in this move, as recent economic indicators have pointed to sluggish domestic activity and easing inflationary pressures.
Today’s data revealed that producer prices increased less than anticipated in the third quarter, reinforcing the view that policymakers are likely to maintain an accommodative stance to support economic growth.
Analysts, however, suggest that this upcoming cut may signal the end of the easing cycle, with further reductions unlikely unless global conditions deteriorate significantly.
External Factors Provide Limited Support
The external environment remains mixed. Although US President Donald Trump’s recent decision to lift tariffs on over 200 food products could offer a boost to New Zealand’s export sector, the move has so far had little impact on the Kiwi in the near term.
Global risk sentiment remains subdued, while the US dollar has stayed firm ahead of key American economic releases, keeping the NZD/USD pair under pressure.
Technical Analysis
NZD/USD is trading around 0.5628, down 0.50%, with the daily chart showing continued bearish momentum. Prices are hovering near recent lows of approximately 0.5606, where temporary support was found earlier in the week.
Short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) remain aligned in a downtrend, while the MACD indicator continues to signal negative momentum below the zero line. Immediate resistance lies at 0.5670, followed by 0.5710, while key support levels are at 0.5600 and 0.5560.
Cautious Outlook
The Kiwi dollar is expected to remain under pressure ahead of the RBNZ meeting, with traders anticipating a dovish tone in the policy statement. A confirmed rate cut could push NZD/USD below 0.5600, whereas any indication that the easing cycle is concluding might trigger a short-term rebound towards 0.5700.
Looking at the broader picture, subdued global growth and soft commodity demand are likely to constrain the currency’s upside through the end of the year.
