NVIDIA Climbs as China Talks Lift AI Hopes

Key Points

• NVIDIA traded at 221.27, up 2.18, or 1.00%, after reaching a session high of 223.63.
• Shares rose nearly 1.5% in overnight trading as Jensen Huang joined President Donald Trump’s China delegation.
• NVIDIA’s China revenue has effectively dropped to zero, after reaching $25 billion and 32% of total revenue in 2024.
• Q1 results are due on May 20, with revenue expected to rise 79% to $78.98 billion and adjusted profit expected to increase 119% to $1.78 per share.

NVIDIA moved higher as traders reacted to CEO Jensen Huang joining President Donald Trump’s delegation for high-level talks in Beijing. The stock traded at 221.27, up 2.18, or 1.00%, at 05/12 22:59:58 GMT+3. The session high stood at 223.63, with a low of 214.91, an open at 218.37, and a close at 219.09.

Shares rose nearly 1.5% in overnight trading heading into Wednesday and became the top trending ticker on Stocktwits. The move came after Trump confirmed Huang was part of the trip, following earlier reports that the NVIDIA chief had not been included.

CNBC reported that Huang flew to Alaska to join Trump’s Air Force One flight to Beijing on Tuesday, while Trump later said in a Truth Social post at 11:09 pm ET that Huang was already on board.

The trip gives NVIDIA a direct seat at one of the market’s most important policy tables. Trump is due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday and Friday, with trade, technology, energy security, Iran, Taiwan, and market access all in focus. President Trump will be travelling with a group of business leaders as Washington seeks to stabilise relations with Beijing while keeping pressure on key strategic issues.

China Access Remains The Core Overhang

The China issue sits at the centre of NVIDIA’s current valuation debate. Trader sentiment across semiconductor stocks has reached fresh highs, but NVIDIA has lagged parts of the wider chip sector because US export restrictions have damaged its China business.

Huang recently said NVIDIA’s revenue from China has effectively dropped to zero. Just two years ago, NVIDIA was a dominant chip supplier in the region, with $25 billion in sales from China, representing 32% of total revenue in 2024. That drop has left traders watching every policy signal from Washington and Beijing.

The Beijing talks could help if they create room for compliant AI chip sales or a clearer framework for semiconductor trade. NVIDIA has already been working around export restrictions with China-compliant chips, but political risk remains high. Any easing in export rules could lift revenue expectations. Any tougher stance could keep China as a drag even while AI demand stays strong elsewhere.

Q1 Earnings Become The Next Major Test

NVIDIA reports fiscal first-quarter results on May 20. The company has confirmed that its Q1 FY2027 earnings call will take place on Wednesday, May 20, at 2 p.m. PT, or 5 p.m. ET.

Analysts expect another record quarter. Revenue is expected to rise 79% to $78.98 billion, while adjusted profit is expected to increase 119% to $1.78 per share. Other market estimates sit close to that range, with consensus revenue around $78.89 billion and adjusted EPS around $1.77.

The market reaction may still prove hard to predict. NVIDIA’s previous earnings beat drew a negative reaction because traders had already priced in a strong result. This time, the stock needs more than a beat. Traders will watch data-centre revenue, AI chip demand, gross margins, China commentary, and any update on export-restricted product demand.

AI Optimism Still Supports The Stock

The broader AI trade remains strong. NVIDIA continues to sit at the centre of data-centre growth, model training demand, inference workloads, and cloud infrastructure spending. NVIDIA expected fiscal first-quarter sales of $78 billion, plus or minus 2%, above the $72.60 billion analyst average at the time.

That demand backdrop gives bulls a strong case. Cloud providers, governments, and enterprises continue to spend on AI infrastructure. The Beijing trip adds a policy catalyst on top of that earnings story.

Still, the stock’s next phase depends on whether NVIDIA can reconnect its AI growth story with China access. If the market hears stronger China language from either Trump, Xi, or Huang, NVIDIA could close part of the performance gap with SOXX. If export restrictions stay firm, traders may treat the rally as short-term sentiment rather than a structural shift.

Technical Analysis

NVIDIA is extending its bullish recovery, with the stock now trading around 221.27 after climbing sharply from the April low near 164.24. The chart structure remains firmly constructive, with momentum accelerating again as buyers push price back toward the upper end of its multi-month range.

Technically, the trend remains decisively bullish:

• MA5: 214.94
• MA10: 207.89
• MA20: 205.78

The short-term moving averages are stacked cleanly above the 20-day average, while price itself continues trading well above all key trend lines. That alignment typically reflects strong upside momentum and sustained buyer control.

Key levels to watch:

• Immediate support: 214 → 208
• Major support: 205 → 194
• Resistance: 223 → 228.50

The recent breakout above the 210 region was important because it confirmed a continuation move following several weeks of consolidation during late April. Buyers have since maintained momentum, pushing NVIDIA back toward the upper resistance area near 223–228.

That zone now becomes the next key test. A sustained breakout above 228 could open the path toward a fresh leg higher, especially if broader AI-related sentiment remains strong across the semiconductor sector.

On the downside, the first layer of support sits near the rising 5-day and 10-day averages around 214–208. As long as price continues holding above that cluster, short-term bullish momentum likely remains intact.

Volume has also improved during the latest rally phase, which adds credibility to the breakout structure. The market continues to price in strong AI infrastructure demand, hyperscaler spending, and ongoing semiconductor investment tied to data centre expansion.

The broader macro backdrop has also become more supportive for growth stocks as traders increasingly position for eventual Federal Reserve easing later in the year. Lower rate expectations tend to favour high-growth technology names, particularly AI-linked leaders such as NVIDIA.

For now, NVIDIA maintains a strong bullish bias, though the stock is approaching an important resistance region near recent highs. A clean move above 223–228 would likely reinforce the current momentum structure further.

Cautious Forecast

NVIDIA maintains a bullish short-term bias as long as it holds above 214.94 and 207.89. A break above 223.63 would support a test of 228.49, especially if China headlines stay constructive and retail momentum remains strong.

A failure near 223.63 would suggest short-term profit-taking ahead of earnings. A break below 214.91 would weaken the latest rally and shift focus toward 211.21 and 207.89. The strongest upside path needs three forces to align: China talks deliver a credible market-access signal, Q1 earnings beat already high expectations, and AI demand guidance stays strong enough to justify fresh record pricing.

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