Insights 
VT 
Oil prices gave back some gains on Tuesday, pausing after Monday’s sharp advance, as markets absorbed the broader implications of a fresh US–EU trade agreement and turned their attention to an upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged down 0.2% to $66.60 per barrel, while Brent crude slipped 0.1% to $69.98.
The retreat followed a strong start to the week, which saw both major benchmarks climb more than 2%, with Brent reaching its highest level since 18 July. However, sentiment began to cool as traders examined the finer points of the trade deal. Though the agreement managed to avoid an all-out trade war, its terms introduced new uncertainties.
A key feature of the pact is the EU’s commitment to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy over President Trump’s second term.
Market watchers have expressed scepticism over the feasibility of this target. Similarly, a promised $600 billion in European investment into the US remains a lofty goal without a firm schedule.
In the near term, the outlook continues to lean bullish, but price action remains sensitive to central bank signals and any resurgence in trade tensions. The Federal Open Market Committee convenes on 29–30 July. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, a dovish shift in tone is possible should inflation indicators continue to soften.
Elsewhere, talks between US and Chinese negotiators in Stockholm remain in focus. Monday’s five-hour dialogue signalled interest in extending the current truce, though the path forward remains murky.
President Trump has also issued a 10–12 day ultimatum to Russia over rising tensions in Ukraine, adding another layer of geopolitical uncertainty.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil (WTI) surged to a session high of $67.123 on the 29th before retreating below the 5- and 10-period moving averages. The price action shows a clear uptrend from the low of $64.979, but the rally appears to be losing steam as the MACD crosses lower and the histogram shifts into negative territory.
The failure to hold above the $67 handle suggests a weakening of bullish momentum. This aligns with broader sentiment after recent API data hinted at a potential build in US crude inventories and ongoing concerns about Chinese demand weighed on energy markets. If the price holds above $66.40, a rebound remains possible. A break below may expose the $65.60 zone as the next downside target.
Outlook Remains Guarded
WTI continues to hold above $66.50 for now, but a lack of fresh drivers could see the upside capped near $67.20. Any hawkish surprises from the Fed or setbacks in trade negotiations could trigger a pullback toward the $66.00 mark. Traders should prepare for increased volatility around the Fed’s announcement.
