Insights 
VT 
Oil prices climbed on Friday, buoyed by renewed optimism surrounding US-China relations. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced by 0.8%, closing at $59.74 per barrel, while Brent crude also moved higher, adding 49 cents to finish at $62.62. Both benchmarks continued their upward movement from late Thursday, erasing losses sustained earlier in the week due to OPEC+ supply-related uncertainties.
The rebound followed confirmation from China’s Commerce Ministry that it is “reviewing” a US proposal to begin tariff discussions. This development helped ease market nerves after prolonged protectionist tensions, giving traders hope that demand concerns may reduce in the near term and supporting bullish sentiment in the oil space.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil has staged a sharp recovery off the $56.38 low, closing near $59.67. After declining sharply from $60.13, the price stabilised near the lower range before reversing. The moving averages (5, 10, 30) have now flipped into a bullish alignment, with price holding above all three lines and maintaining an upward trajectory.
The MACD (12,26,9) confirms this bullish momentum with a clean crossover and rising green histogram bars, though the slope is beginning to flatten – hinting at short-term exhaustion. Resistance near $59.85–$60.13 is the next key barrier to watch. If breached, this could open the door for a retest of $61.00.
For now, momentum favours bulls, but consolidation may follow after such an aggressive rebound.
US – Iran Fallout
Meanwhile, President Trump stoked fresh geopolitical concerns by warning of possible secondary sanctions against nations continuing to purchase oil from Iran. These comments came after US-Iran nuclear negotiations collapsed, prompting Washington to double down on efforts to halt Iran’s oil exports entirely, a recurring factor that has tended to support higher prices in the past.
Future Output Plan From OPEC+
Despite this, gains may be capped. Reports from Reuters suggest Saudi Arabia is hesitant to maintain current output cuts, even as oil remains below its favoured price range. A key OPEC+ meeting involving eight member countries is scheduled for 5 May, where plans for June output will be finalised. Some participants are reportedly pushing for a second straight production increase. In the meantime, rising output from non-OPEC nations continues to pressure the group’s efforts to manage global supply.
As Beijing’s trade stance evolves and OPEC+ debates its next move, oil markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to breaking news. While the rebound has cleared short-term hurdles, any further rally depends on clarity from the US and Saudi leadership. For now, traders should closely watch the $60.13 level as a key indicator of continued bullish momentum.
