Insights 
VT 
The S&P 500 advanced sharply on Thursday, buoyed by renewed trade optimism following remarks from US President Donald Trump. Posting on his Truth Social platform, Trump hinted at a significant trade deal with a ‘big’ country, widely interpreted as the United Kingdom. The announcement spurred a risk-on mood across global markets, propelling US equity futures higher and pushing the S&P 500 to an intraday high of 5678.48.
However, the optimism was tempered by Trump’s clarification that existing tariffs on Chinese imports would remain intact during initial negotiations. This added a layer of caution, as market participants remain sensitive to the risk of deteriorating US – China relations.
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, which was in line with expectations. Chair Jerome Powell struck a careful tone, acknowledging inflationary pressures and a tight labour market, but stressed there is currently no case for rate cuts. Powell also noted that while tariffs pose risks to the outlook, the Fed remains data-dependent and will not act on speculation alone.
Markets responded positively to both the trade headlines and the Fed’s steady hand. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.27%, and the S&P 500 closed 0.43% higher before futures extended gains into the overnight session.
Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 has staged an impressive intraday recovery, rebounding sharply from the 5578 support zone to set a new session high at 5678. The bullish drive was preceded by a brief consolidation phase and a dip toward the 5619 area, where buyers re-emerged with strength. The 5- and 10-period moving averages have realigned upward, signalling renewed bullish structure, while the MACD histogram has flipped firmly positive, with its lines showing a clean bullish crossover.
This move clears near-term resistance and suggests continuation potential, especially if momentum sustains above 5670. However, the current push is approaching psychological resistance, and overextension may trigger minor profit-taking. A retracement toward 5640 could act as a healthy retest zone before bulls attempt further upside.
Outlook: Bullish but Cautious
While the technical structure remains supportive of further gains, headline risk looms. A sustained breakout above 5700 is possible if trade optimism continues, but sentiment could reverse swiftly should the proposed UK deal lack substance or US – China trade tensions reignite. Additionally, upcoming labour market data and any signs of economic softening could inject volatility.
