Key Points
- WTI crude fell toward $95.34, trimming earlier gains as ceasefire hopes reduced Middle East risk premium.
- US crude inventories dropped by 8.0 million barrels to 433.7 million barrels, beating expectations for a 4.0 million-barrel draw.
- The short-term setup remains mixed, with traders watching $95.70 resistance and $94.72 support.
The Setup
Oil prices pulled back on Thursday as traders reacted to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which raised hopes for broader progress toward ending the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. WTI crude slipped around 0.8% to trade near $95.24, while Brent moved lower toward $96.92.
The move marks a shift from the previous session, when Brent and WTI rose about 2% after renewed Middle East hostilities lifted fears around supply disruption near the Strait of Hormuz.
For crude oil CFD traders, the setup remains active. Geopolitical risk has cooled, but supply data still looks tight. That leaves WTI caught between peace-deal optimism and a sharper-than-expected US inventory draw.
The Trade Zone
| Zone | Level | Action Signal |
| Breakout Resistance | 95.7 | Price needs to reclaim the session open |
| Stronger Resistance | 95.87 | Intraday high and next upside trigger |
| Upper Reference | 96.18 | Wider recovery area |
| Short-Term Pivot | 95.3 | Moving average cluster and current trade zone |
| Immediate Support | 94.72 | Intraday low and first downside level |
| Deeper Support | 94.3 | Prior chart support zone |
| Lower Risk Zone | 94.04 | Bearish extension area |
WTI is trading near its short-term moving averages, with the 5-period MA at 95.299, the 10-period MA at 95.221, and the 20-period MA at 95.098.
That cluster shows the market is trying to stabilise after the pullback. Price has rebounded from the intraday low near 94.72, but it still needs to reclaim 95.70 to shift momentum back toward buyers.
A break below 94.72 would weaken the recovery attempt and expose the lower chart zone near 94.30.
How Traders Can Approach Oil Now
A move above 95.70 would be the first bullish signal. That would show buyers are willing to step back in despite the softer geopolitical premium.
If WTI clears 95.87, traders may watch for a push toward 96.18 and then the wider resistance area near 96.95.
A move below 94.72 would change the tone. That would suggest ceasefire optimism is weighing more heavily on oil prices, despite tight inventory data.
The cleaner setup may come from confirmation. WTI is holding near the moving average cluster, so traders may want to wait for a firm break above resistance or below support before taking a stronger view.
Why This Market is Active
Oil is moving on two opposing forces.
The first is geopolitics. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has reduced immediate supply fears and raised hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations. US President Donald Trump also suggested that progress with Iran could come as soon as this weekend, though Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said talks had made no progress yet.
The second is supply pressure. US crude inventories fell by 8.0 million barrels in the week ended May 29, far larger than the 4.0 million-barrel draw analysts expected. Commercial crude stocks now sit at 433.7 million barrels, around 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.
That tension keeps crude volatile. Ceasefire headlines can pressure oil by reducing the risk premium, but falling inventories may limit the downside if traders start to price in tighter supply before peak summer demand.
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Why Trade Oil as a CFD?
Crude oil CFDs allow traders to take a view on both rising and falling price moves without owning physical barrels or futures contracts.
That flexibility can help when oil reacts quickly to headlines. If ceasefire hopes continue to build, traders can watch downside setups. If supply fears return or inventory draws deepen, traders can monitor bullish momentum.
With VT Markets, traders can follow crude oil price action in real time and compare it with other major CFD markets from one account.
What to Watch Next
Traders should watch the $95.70 resistance level and the $94.72 support level.
A break above $95.70 could signal that buyers are absorbing the ceasefire-driven pullback. A move below $94.72 may bring $94.30 back into focus.
Beyond the chart, the next drivers are US-Iran negotiation headlines, Strait of Hormuz risk, and fresh inventory data. The IEA has warned that global oil inventories are drawing quickly, with further volatility likely before peak summer demand.
Trader Questions
Why Are Oil Prices Falling Today?
Oil prices are falling as ceasefire hopes between Israel and Lebanon reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium in crude markets. Traders are also watching whether progress in US-Iran talks could lower the threat of supply disruption near the Strait of Hormuz.
What Is The Key Level To Watch For WTI Crude?
The key short-term level to watch is $95.70. A move above this area could show that buyers are returning. On the downside, $94.72 is the first support level. A break below it may expose $94.30.
How Do US Crude Inventories Affect Oil Prices?
Lower crude inventories can support oil prices because they point to tighter supply. The latest US crude stockpile draw was larger than expected, which may limit the downside even as ceasefire hopes pressure prices.
Can Oil Prices Rise Again?
Oil prices could recover if supply risks return, US-Iran talks stall, or inventory draws continue before peak summer demand. A move above $95.70 would strengthen the short-term bullish case for WTI.
Can I Trade Oil With VT Markets?
Yes. VT Markets offers access to crude oil CFDs, allowing traders to take a view on rising or falling oil prices without owning physical barrels or futures contracts. Traders can also access forex, gold, indices, shares, ETFs, and other CFD markets from one platform.
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