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Rabobank expects USD/CAD to stay range-bound into 2026, with USMCA and tariff risks offsetting dollar weakness

Trade tensions are trapping USD/CAD in a 1.36–1.41 range through 2026: weaker USD and narrower rate spreads offset a “tariff premium” on CAD. Volatility should rise ahead of July 1 USMCA review. – vtmarketsmy.com

Deutsche Bank analysts say EUR/USD held steady as the dollar index rose slightly ahead of US CPI data

EUR/USD is stuck as traders await delayed US January CPI. Headline may cool on cheaper fuel, but core could stay hot, shifting rate-cut bets and sparking a volatility breakout. – vtmarketsmy.com

Markets await US inflation data as sterling slips for a fourth session, hovering near 1.3600 after peaking at 1.3700

Pound slips four days as risk-off boosts the dollar. All eyes on US CPI: softer inflation could spark Fed cut bets. Weak UK GDP and BoE easing fears keep sterling pressured. – vtmarketsmy.com

Commerzbank says OPEC, EIA and IEA disagree on 2026 oil balances and warns oversupply risks persist

Oil’s 2026 outlook is split, keeping Brent near $67.6. Iran sanctions support prices, while Kashagan’s ramp-up risks a glut. Traders can sell near-term calls and buy longer-dated calls. – vtmarketsmy.com

The eurozone’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose to €11.6B from €10.7B previously.

Eurozone trade surplus hit €11.6bn in December, signaling sturdier growth. That could lift the euro and exporters, curb ECB cut hopes amid sticky inflation, and pressure short-term bonds. – vtmarketsmy.com

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