Pandangan 
VT 
EUR/USD is experiencing difficulties, retreating after failing to surpass the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a third time, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum. Sellers are regaining control, indicating a potential change in the overall trend.
Technical indicators show decreasing momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) declining while still in positive territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat, suggesting weak directional strength.
Attention is on the potential convergence of the 100-day and 20-day SMAs, which may lead to a bearish crossover. A break below the 20-day SMA at approximately 1.0450 could heighten downside risks.
What we are observing is a weakening bullish push, as shown by the repeated inability to break past the 100-day SMA. When a key resistance level rejects price action multiple times, it usually indicates that buying pressure is diminishing, giving sellers more control. With support levels now in focus, traders should be paying close attention to whether the 20-day SMA holds or gives way.
Momentum indicators are not showing much strength in either direction. The RSI is moving lower, but it remains above the midpoint, meaning bearish pressure is increasing, though not overwhelmingly so. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram staying flat reflects a lack of enthusiasm from both bulls and bears. This often happens when markets struggle to find direction after an extended period of uncertainty.
One upcoming technical event that might influence decision-making is the possible crossover between the 100-day and 20-day SMAs. If the shorter-term moving average moves beneath the longer-term one, we would normally expect further downside pressure to gain traction. That is why the 1.0450 level carries weight; falling below it could see momentum shift firmly to the downside, potentially setting up a deeper pullback.
In the near term, traders should be attentive to whether selling pressure continues building or if buyers can regain control. If support holds, we might see another attempt to break higher, but for now, the evidence leans in favour of further losses. The market is hesitating, which often precedes a larger move, meaning quick adjustments to strategy might be required depending on how price developments unfold.
