Major currency pairs experienced limited movements on Monday due to a lack of high-tier economic data. On Tuesday, the European Central Bank will release Negotiated Wage Rates for Q4, while the US will see regional manufacturing surveys and the Consumer Confidence Index.

The US Dollar Index started the week under selling pressure, reaching below 106.20 but later fluctuated above 106.50. The index has been affected by a cautious market mood.

EUR/USD opened positively, rallying above 1.0500 but entered a consolidation phase above 1.0450. GBP/USD experienced a minor decline, remaining above 1.2600, while USD/JPY initially rose but retreated to 149.60.

Japan’s Corporate Service Price Index showed a 3.1% year-on-year increase in January. Gold prices reached an all-time high above $2,955 before correcting to below $2,940.

Market participants began the week with subdued price action, given the absence of data releases capable of driving volatility. As we advance into Tuesday, attention will turn towards Europe’s latest wage figures and survey-based indicators from the United States, which could shift sentiment if they outperform or disappoint. These releases, while not top-tier, will still provide insight into economic momentum.

The US Dollar came under pressure in early trade, pushing the Dollar Index towards 106.20. However, as sentiment remained cautious, the index found some footing and rebounded above 106.50. This back-and-forth movement suggests that markets are waiting for clear direction from incoming data before making decisive moves. The way investors react to Tuesday’s figures will set the stage for how the currency behaves in the coming days.

The Euro gained some traction at the start of the week, climbing past 1.0500 against the Dollar. However, as buyers struggled to maintain momentum, the pair drifted lower but held above 1.0450. Similarly, Sterling faced mild selling pressure yet managed to remain above the 1.2600 threshold. The Japanese Yen saw an early push higher in USD/JPY, only to reverse course towards 149.60. The movement in this pair highlights traders taking profits amid uncertain risk sentiment.

Japan’s latest Corporate Service Price Index showed a 3.1% increase from a year earlier, reinforcing the view that pricing pressures remain persistent in the services sector. While this is not the primary inflation gauge for monetary policymakers, it does offer clues about how inflation dynamics are playing out beneath the surface. This could become more relevant as markets assess future moves by the Bank of Japan.

Commodities saw a volatile start to the week, particularly in gold. The precious metal surged to a fresh record above $2,955 before retreating slightly below $2,940. Price swings of this nature underscore the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and profit-taking by short-term traders. With inflation and geopolitical risks still in focus, gold’s ability to hold elevated levels will be key in gauging broader market sentiment.

For traders dealing in derivatives, volatility expectations and positioning around these developments will be key in shaping short-term strategies. While the lack of major events on Monday kept price action restrained, the unfolding data cycle could lead to sharper moves as expectations adjust accordingly.

Isabel Schnabel, a board member of the European Central Bank, is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech at a Bank of England conference on Tuesday.

The event will occur at 1300 GMT / 0800 US Eastern time as part of the Bank of England’s Annual Research Conference, themed “The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet.”

Schnabel’s address will centre on the subject of “No Longer Convenient? Safe Asset Abundance and r*.”

Her remarks are expected to provide insight into how the European Central Bank currently views the balance of risks in financial markets. Given her influence within the ECB, any mention of long-term interest rate trends or liquidity conditions could shift expectations around future policy decisions.

Recent discussions among policymakers have highlighted concerns about the availability of safe assets and how this affects borrowing costs. If Isabel outlines new considerations regarding this issue, we could see adjustments in how traders position themselves. A speech that leans towards tighter financial conditions might prompt market participants to reconsider how they price longer-dated assets.

The timing of this address is also important. Markets have been searching for clearer guidance on the direction of monetary policy, not just in Europe but globally. Data over the past few weeks has reinforced the sense that inflation is moving closer to target, yet uncertainty remains. If her remarks suggest that officials see risks tilted in one direction more than previously thought, that could influence expectations around bond supply dynamics.

Speeches like this often prompt immediate reactions, even before any formal policy action. If Isabel signals that liquidity trends are shifting, that could alter market participants’ expectations around funding conditions. Meanwhile, if her comments indicate a more cautious stance on withdrawing support, that could affect sentiment on short-term rate projections.

What matters most is whether she introduces a perspective that markets have not yet fully priced in. If she challenges assumptions about how quickly balance sheets might shrink, that could reshape expectations for how central banks manage excess liquidity. With traders already adjusting to shifting rate expectations, any change in this narrative could be reflected in asset price movements soon after her remarks.

For those tracking sovereign yields and bond spreads, any reference to structural shifts in safe asset demand could be particularly relevant. If Isabel suggests that supply constraints could affect rate dynamics, that may lead to reassessments of where fair value lies for longer maturities. This would have implications far beyond the euro area, given the interconnected nature of global bond markets.

As we head into the coming weeks, attention will remain on how central bank officials balance financial stability concerns with their broader policy objectives. Any deviation from the prevailing expectations could be met with quick adjustments in positioning. Keeping a close eye on both the speech and any subsequent commentary from colleagues will help in interpreting how policy signals are shifting.

Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter (Q4) has recorded a decline of 0.2%, aligning with forecasts.

This downturn indicates challenges in the German economy, contributing to discussions about potential future economic strategies and interventions.

A drop of 0.2% in Germany’s GDP for the final quarter of the year had been expected, yet it still underlines ongoing difficulties within Europe’s largest economy. A contraction like this generally hints at weaker industrial output, lower consumer spending, or external pressures such as reduced demand from key trading partners. These figures will renew debates over policy responses and whether further measures are needed to spur growth.

Meanwhile, expectations around inflation are shifting again. With price growth in the eurozone showing signs of slowing, speculation around European Central Bank (ECB) decisions is growing. Any indication that rate cuts might come earlier than previously thought could impact market positioning, particularly in rate-sensitive assets.

Turning to the United States, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has reiterated his view that there is no pressing need to cut interest rates immediately. He acknowledges progress in bringing inflation down but maintains that patience is necessary before making adjustments. His stance mirrors recent messaging from other Fed officials, reinforcing the idea that borrowing costs will remain elevated for longer than some had hoped.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell takes to the stage this week, and markets will be watching for any hints that diverge from what officials have already stated. If Powell signals that the Fed might reconsider its timing on rate cuts, it could prompt fresh market movements, particularly in bond yields and currency markets.

Elsewhere, the focus remains on the energy sector. Crude oil prices have been steadier following earlier volatility. With supply-side concerns and geopolitical tensions still present, traders will continue to factor in potential disruptions when assessing future price movements.

For those involved in derivatives, the coming weeks will demand close attention. GDP contractions, central bank policies, and commodity price fluctuations all bring potential trading opportunities and risks. Staying ahead of policy shifts and understanding broader economic signals will be key when navigating market moves.

The Bank of Korea will assess the timing and pace of future base rate cuts following its recent reduction. There is a high level of uncertainty surrounding Korea’s growth outlook.

The Bank plans to monitor the domestic political climate closely. It anticipates a slowdown in export growth and will examine both domestic and international economic policy changes.

The effects of the recent rate cuts will also be observed carefully. Domestic economic growth is expected to remain low for an extended period, requiring caution regarding potential increases in household debt.

Various factors, including U.S. tariff policies, Federal Reserve actions, and local government stimulus measures, contribute to economic uncertainties. Additionally, there is a need for caution concerning exchange rate volatility.

Inflation levels are projected to remain stable at around 2% due to subdued demand pressures.

The recent rate cut reflects an adjustment aimed at addressing sluggish economic conditions, but further reductions will depend on how things unfold. Following this move, the bank will take a cautious approach, weighing risks tied to debt accumulation.

Trade remains a concern. Overseas demand is showing signs of a slowdown, and with expected shifts in global monetary policy, external risks are not easing. The direction taken by policymakers in Washington will have immediate consequences, particularly if tariff adjustments alter the balance of trade. At the same time, domestic initiatives to support economic activity will require careful handling to avoid unintended distortions.

Price stability seems to be holding, with inflation tracking close to current projections. However, the persistence of weak demand suggests that cost pressures are unlikely to build quickly. That being said, swings in foreign exchange markets could pose challenges. A weaker currency may lift import prices, and if confidence wavers, capital flows could become less predictable.

For now, keeping a close watch on global shifts remains essential. Any further response will need to account for how these external and internal conditions develop in the coming weeks.

Goldman Sachs predicts a rise in copper prices to a range of $10,500 to $11,500 per ton. The firm anticipates deficits of 180,000 tons in 2025 and 250,000 tons in 2026.

They expect copper prices to breach $10,500 per ton in the first quarter of 2026. However, the firm believes that the price will be limited to a maximum of $11,500 per ton.

Goldman Sachs sees a tightening copper market over the next two years, driven by growing shortages. The firm projects a supply gap of 180,000 tonnes in 2025, widening further to 250,000 tonnes in 2026. With demand still increasing, they believe this will lift prices above $10,500 per tonne by early 2026. That said, they don’t see prices climbing indefinitely, as they expect an upper boundary at $11,500 per tonne.

The forecast suggests that supply constraints will strengthen as production fails to keep up with consumption. Mining delays, lower ore grades, and limited expansion in output are all factors that could keep supply tight. At the same time, demand remains firm, particularly from sectors such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, both of which rely on copper for infrastructure.

Given these conditions, short-term price moves may be more volatile as traders adjust to shifting expectations. Sudden changes in supply forecasts or economic data could push prices higher or lower in a short period. Longer-term investors may position themselves in anticipation of supply deficits supporting higher prices, but not exceeding the levels outlined by the bank.

Market participants should also watch for policy shifts that might influence demand. Any government initiatives related to infrastructure, energy transition, or trade restrictions could add support to the bullish outlook. On the other hand, signs of economic slowdown might lead to temporary pullbacks.

While some might expect prices to overshoot, Goldman Sachs maintains that increases will remain contained within their projected range. If market conditions remain as expected, traders should see the price move towards the lower threshold before testing higher levels as shortages deepen.

Gold prices in the United Arab Emirates decreased on Tuesday, with the cost at 347.03 AED per gram, down from 348.44 AED on the previous day. The price for Gold per tola fell to 4,047.66 AED, from 4,064.09 AED the day before.

Current gold prices in AED include 3,470.30 AED for 10 grams and 10,793.77 AED for a troy ounce. Gold prices are adjusted from international prices to local currency and measurement, updated daily based on market rates.

Central banks are major gold holders and bought 1,136 tonnes worth around $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual purchase on record. Factors influencing gold prices include geopolitical instability, interest rates, and movements of the US Dollar.

Gold has dropped slightly in the United Arab Emirates since Monday, and if we look at both per gram and per tola prices, the downward movement is clearly visible. A shift of just over one dirham per gram may not seem much at first glance, but it can add up for larger volumes. At 10 grams, that’s around 10 dirhams less, and for a whole ounce, the adjustment means nearly 15 dirhams lower than the previous day.

The reason gold prices in the UAE move the way they do is not just down to international markets. Local adjustments are made based on exchange rates and small fluctuations in demand and supply. However, the broader trends are set by global factors. Central banks continue to be major buyers, with their stockpiling habit well established. In 2022 alone, these institutions picked up over a thousand tonnes of gold, and that level of demand plays a part in long-term pricing.

What really sways gold on any given day, though, is a combination of interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and, crucially, the US Dollar’s movement. When investors see greater risks in the economy, gold tends to do well. If central banks hold interest rates higher for longer, gold often faces pressure because other assets that offer interest look more attractive. And since gold is priced worldwide in US Dollars, when that currency rises against others, gold becomes more expensive internationally, sometimes pushing demand down.

For those involved in future contracts or gold-linked derivatives, keeping an eye on upcoming statements from policymakers will be necessary. Interest rate decisions remain one of the biggest forces in the gold market. If inflation pressures remain high, central banks may avoid rate cuts for longer than traders expect. That would mean gold might struggle to rise sharply. If central banks indicate they’re ready to ease policies sooner, gold could find stronger support.

In practical terms, traders who are active in gold options or futures need to consider volatility when making their next moves. With price shifts tied to central bank actions and currency changes, short-term strategies will require close attention to market news. Ensuring stop-losses are set wisely and keeping risk management tight will be necessary over the coming weeks. The trends seen so far suggest that any sudden changes in the price of gold will likely be guided by rate expectations and investor sentiment, more than just supply and demand alone.

Trump has announced plans to sign additional executive orders on Tuesday at 1500 US Eastern time. Earlier statements confirmed that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will proceed, and he expressed intentions to advance the Keystone XL pipeline project.

On February 4, Trump signed an executive order regarding Iran, further shaping his administration’s foreign policy. These developments reflect ongoing actions in the political landscape as decisions continue to unfold.

These executive orders demonstrate a continuation of the policies that Donald set in motion during his campaign. By moving forward with tariffs on Canada and Mexico, he reinforces a stance on trade that prioritises domestic industries over previous agreements. This decision is not isolated. It affects multiple industries and could lead to reactions from the affected countries, particularly in manufacturing and agriculture.

The Keystone XL pipeline announcement signals further support for fossil fuel infrastructure. This decision follows years of regulatory hurdles and debate, and it underlines a shift towards policies that favour domestic energy projects. Market participants should recognise the direct effects this could have on energy prices, production levels, and supply chain adjustments.

The executive order on Iran, signed on February 4, fits into broader foreign policy shifts. Given the nature of previous measures against the country, this introduces new elements for those monitoring geopolitical influence on markets. It is not a standalone action. It aligns with earlier rhetoric and policy directions that suggest further restrictions or responses. The consequences of such a move could extend beyond immediate diplomatic tensions, affecting energy markets and financial instruments tied to them.

With the upcoming announcements scheduled for Tuesday at 1500 US Eastern time, additional changes are expected. These are not routine legislative measures but direct actions that carry weight in multiple sectors. Those tracking policy changes should remain attentive to any further movements in trade, energy, and foreign relations. Understanding these connections allows for better judgement of potential shifts ahead.

Gold prices in India fell on Tuesday, with the price per gram at 8,205.23 Indian Rupees (INR), down from 8,238.38 INR the previous day. The price per tola decreased to 95,704.90 INR from 96,090.80 INR.

Current prices for gold in various units are as follows: 1 gram at 8,205.23 INR, 10 grams at 82,053.46 INR, and a troy ounce at 255,209.80 INR. Prices are updated daily based on market conditions.

Central banks, particularly from emerging economies, have been increasing their gold reserves, with a record addition of 1,136 tonnes in 2022. Various factors influence gold prices, including geopolitical instability, interest rates, and the performance of the US Dollar.

The drop in gold prices this Tuesday, though not drastic, does reflect the overall pressure on the market. A gram of gold now sits at 8,205.23 INR, lower than Monday’s 8,238.38 INR, while a tola follows suit, moving from 96,090.80 INR to 95,704.90 INR. This is the result of several forces at play, ones that those trading derivatives will need to keep in mind in the coming weeks.

We are seeing central banks, particularly those from emerging markets, actively increasing their gold reserves. This accumulation has not been minor—1,136 tonnes were added in 2022 alone. This matters because it introduces a consistent source of demand, underpinning prices even when other market forces apply downward pressure. Yet, traders cannot rely solely on this trend.

Geopolitics remains one of the larger factors driving prices. Tensions between major economies and ongoing conflicts create moments of sharp upward movement. If these geopolitical risks continue, gold will likely see more periods of strength, but the timing of such surges is never predictable. Traders should remain aware of any shifts in international relations that could alter investor sentiment. Staying ahead of such movements could provide an edge.

Then there’s the role of interest rates. When rates rise, holding gold—an asset that generates no yield—becomes less appealing. This puts downward pressure on its price. If inflation data or central bank policy hints at tighter monetary conditions, gold could experience further declines, creating trading opportunities. But when conditions soften and expectations turn towards rate cuts, we could see a reversal.

The US Dollar’s strength also plays a part. A stronger dollar typically dampens demand for gold, making it more expensive for those holding other currencies. If the dollar remains strong, gold prices may stay subdued, but any signs of weakness in the greenback might support a recovery.

With prices updated daily to reflect market conditions, short-term price movements will remain fluid. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the multiple forces shaping the market. As traders, it will be necessary to track all these drivers—geopolitical developments, interest rate expectations, and currency fluctuations. Each one could shift price action in the days ahead.

Trump expressed a desire for the Keystone XL pipeline to be constructed, urging the company responsible to return to the United States for this purpose.

He indicated that easy approvals could facilitate an almost immediate start to the project.

Furthermore, he mentioned that if the original company is unwilling to proceed, an alternative pipeline company could take on the project.

Trump reiterated his stance on the Keystone XL pipeline in his recent social media post.

Donald’s statement reaffirms his long-standing interest in seeing Keystone XL built, emphasising that approvals would not be an obstacle should the project be revived. By encouraging the company to return and highlighting the ease of restarting construction, he suggests a more accommodating regulatory approach under his leadership. If the original developer hesitates, he is open to another firm stepping in to take over.

This stance signals a potential shift in expectations for those tracking energy markets. Policy direction, or at least sentiment from influential figures, plays a role in shaping industry confidence. Even the notion of approvals becoming easier can alter forward-looking assessments. Whenever a high-profile figure speaks about a project that was previously halted, discussions tend to follow. Questions arise about feasibility, financing, and whether market conditions align with renewed interest.

Near-term considerations will focus on how this affects sentiment surrounding domestic energy infrastructure. Conversations may emerge around what logistical challenges a new or returning firm would face. Infrastructure development does not resume overnight, even with a friendlier policy backdrop. Potential obstacles such as securing materials, workforce availability, and state-level requirements remain part of the broader equation.

There is also the matter of competition. If alternative firms sense an opportunity, discussions could follow about how realistic it is for another player to step in. Those watching pipeline developments will recognise that financing, permits, and long-term contracts are not arranged instantaneously. Even with a smoother regulatory setting, market conditions remain central.

One must consider how energy markets react to such statements. If infrastructure concerns ease, expectations around supply can shift. Any suggestion that an abandoned project could be revived may lead to fresh speculation on transport capacity. Those following this space will likely keep a close eye on whether industry participants acknowledge or dismiss what Donald has put forward.

From a broader perspective, infrastructure expansion—or even the perception that it might return—often leads to adjustments in outlooks. Some will re-evaluate existing positions, while others will look for concrete developments before acting. It remains to be seen whether statements alone translate into actual movement. However, when a matter this prominent resurfaces, it does not go unnoticed.

The GBP/USD pair is currently operating within an ascending channel, trading around 1.2630. Immediate resistance is noted at 1.2690, with primary support identified at the nine-day EMA of 1.2597.

The pair shows a bullish trend, supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the 50 mark. This suggests a robust short-term price momentum, as the pair stays above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

If the pair surpasses 1.2811, it could reach the upper boundary of the channel at 1.2960. Conversely, a drop below the nine-day EMA may indicate a weakness, bringing the price closer to 1.2490.

The British Pound has also demonstrated strength against other major currencies, particularly the Japanese Yen.

From what we see, the pound is maintaining an upward trend, with price action hinting at sustained momentum. The fact that it remains within this ascending range tells us that buyers are still in control, at least for now. The resistance at 1.2690 is a key level to watch, as breaking beyond this would suggest confidence among traders, potentially setting the stage for a push towards 1.2811. If that hurdle is cleared, there’s little in the way before the upper boundary near 1.2960.

Looking at the nine-day EMA at 1.2597, this is the first test of the trend’s strength. Holding above this line signals resilience, while dipping beneath it would be an early warning of fading momentum. Should that happen, attention would need to shift towards 1.2490, which stands as the next possible stopping point.

Technical indicators are still giving the edge to the buyers. The RSI sitting above 50 points to a continued bullish bias, reinforcing what we observe in price behaviour. The short-term EMAs are acting as a guide, keeping the pair propped up, and offering levels that traders can use to measure shifts in sentiment.

Beyond its performance against the US dollar, sterling has also been proving itself elsewhere, particularly against the yen. This hints at underlying strength that isn’t isolated to a single pairing, suggesting broader support in favour of the pound.

Over the coming weeks, holding above these EMAs should keep traders leaning towards the buy side, but any move below the nine-day EMA could force a reassessment. Watching for a test of resistance, alongside how the pair behaves near support markers, will be key in determining whether this momentum holds or starts to fade. All of this points to a market where traders should stay agile and ready to adjust based on where price action takes us next.