US stocks are expected to open with modest gains despite further selling of Nvidia shares. Nvidia’s stock has decreased by 2% in pre-market trading after an 8% decline following its earnings report.

The S&P 500 futures are up by 9 points today, although they were previously up 30 points before ending down nearly 100 points yesterday. Currently, Nvidia is trading at $117, down from $136 at the open yesterday, and the S&P 500 has seen nearly all its gains lost since the US election.

This movement shows that investors remain cautious despite signs of stability in futures markets. The selling of Nvidia shares appears to be continuing, and the broader market is struggling to regain lost ground. The drop in its stock suggests that traders are reassessing long-term growth expectations after the company’s earnings report. Some might have been expecting stronger guidance, while others are likely taking profits after a strong rally earlier in the year.

With the S&P 500 futures showing a modest rise, there is a hint of resilience, but yesterday’s reversal highlights how fragile sentiment remains. A gain of 30 points earlier in the session suggested buyers were stepping in, yet that optimism faded as the day progressed. Now, with futures up by just 9 points, confidence appears measured. The broad index has now wiped out almost all advances seen since the US election, reinforcing that sellers continue to dominate in the short term.

The levels Nvidia is trading at now indicate how quickly sentiment can shift after earnings. A drop from $136 at yesterday’s open to $117 today highlights how swift corrections can be when expectations run too high. The momentum behind the decline will likely influence positioning going forward, particularly among short-term traders who react quickly to such adjustments.

As we’ve observed before, the balancing act between growth expectations and profit-taking plays a key role after major earnings announcements. When a stock has run up significantly before a report, even decent results can trigger selling if they fall short of the most optimistic forecasts. The current price action suggests that many are taking a step back to reassess Nvidia’s valuation in light of new information.

For those positioning themselves in the coming weeks, the focus should be on how broader market sentiment develops. If selling pressure persists in leading stocks, it could weigh on overall index performance. At the same time, any shift towards buying in beaten-down names could signal a stabilisation effort. It will be important to watch trade volumes and whether losses accelerate or begin to slow.

Additionally, attention should be given to how other large-cap technology stocks respond. If declines are isolated, it may indicate this is specific to Nvidia. However, if weakness extends to other key players, it could suggest a larger shift in sentiment towards the sector. Given recent market movements, each session will provide fresh insight into whether this is a contained adjustment or part of a broader retreat.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

EUR/USD has increased to around 1.0410 during the North American trading session. The rise follows the release of US PCE data for January, showing core PCE inflation steady at 2.6% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%.

Earlier, the US Dollar experienced gains due to new tariff threats from President Trump, including 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The Philadelphia Fed Bank President supports maintaining current interest rates, anticipating these tariffs could impact US economic growth.

German HICP data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in February, which exceeded expectations. Market forecasts predict the European Central Bank will cut its Deposit Facility rate to 2.5% in the upcoming meeting.

German Retail Sales rose by 0.2% in January, contrary to expectations of no change, and 2.9% on a yearly basis. This follows a contraction of 1.6% in December, suggesting resilient consumer spending trends.

EUR/USD faces selling pressure after breaking out of its recent consolidation range. The next support level is marked at 1.0285, while the resistance level is at 1.0530.

In currency comparisons, the Euro performed well against major currencies today, particularly the Japanese Yen.

The move to 1.0410 comes as traders digest inflation data from the US that, at least for now, suggests price pressures remain stable. A core PCE increase of 2.6% year-on-year was exactly what economists had forecast, and a monthly uptick of 0.3% aligned with expectations. No surprises there, which may explain the relatively muted reaction from markets.

Earlier in the day, the US Dollar briefly strengthened after comments from the former President about raising tariffs. A 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico would, if implemented, throw a wrench into trade relations. These kinds of developments usually push investors to buy up safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar, but with the Federal Reserve likely to hold interest rates steady for now, the rally quickly fizzled out. Even Patrick, who runs the Philadelphia Fed, has made it clear that he sees no need to change rates at the moment. If tariffs slow economic growth, there will be even less urgency to adjust policy.

Economic releases in Europe have added another layer of complexity. Germany’s inflation came in at 2.8% for February, surpassing estimates. Markets have already priced in an interest rate cut from the European Central Bank, with expectations that policymakers will lower the Deposit Facility rate to 2.5% at the next meeting. However, inflation readings like this could lead to some hesitation among ECB officials. If prices keep rising beyond forecasts, the timeline for a rate cut might shift further out.

Retail data out of Germany also painted a slightly different picture from what analysts had predicted. Consumer spending edged up 0.2% in January after a hefty drop in December, signalling that households are still spending despite uncertain economic conditions. Compared with a year ago, sales jumped 2.9%, reinforcing the argument that demand is holding up better than feared.

For those trading EUR/USD, the recent breakout turned into selling pressure rather quickly. The currency pair has resistance around 1.0530, while support sits near 1.0285. If the exchange rate drifts lower, that support zone could be an area where buyers step in again.

Outside of this specific exchange rate, the Euro has performed better today against other major currencies, especially when matched up against the Yen. That suggests Europe’s currency still has a degree of strength, at least for now, even as it faces headwinds from policy expectations and shifting economic data.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

US advance wholesale inventories rose by 0.7%, contrasting with a predicted drop of 0.5%.

The previous figure was adjusted from a decline of 0.5% to a decline of 0.4%.

There are concerns that these changes may be linked to stockpiling in anticipation of upcoming tariffs.

An increase in wholesale inventories of this scale suggests businesses are holding onto more goods than expected. This could indicate confidence in future demand, supply chain inefficiencies, or preparations for external risks such as trade policy changes. The adjustment to the prior data, though minor, reinforces that stock levels were not shrinking as quickly as originally thought.

If this build-up is tied to expected tariffs, firms might be accelerating purchases to avoid increased costs later. This could mean higher near-term activity, followed by slower periods once the excess supply is worked through. If demand doesn’t keep pace with this accumulation, businesses could face pressure to offload inventory at lower margins, which would have broader pricing implications.

For traders focusing on derivatives, shifts like these can affect expectations for inflation, interest rate policy, and overall market sentiment. If stockpiling leads to temporary boosts in economic activity, it may support stronger short-term figures, potentially influencing how policymakers approach monetary decisions. However, if inventory levels stay elevated without a corresponding increase in sales, it could signal a drag on future production and investment.

Gregory is scheduled to speak later this week, and any reference to trade policy or supply chains will be closely analysed. A shift in rhetoric could either reinforce current market positioning or force adjustments. The timing of these developments, alongside broader economic releases, suggests heightened volatility in the coming sessions.

At the same time, Madison’s latest comments have emphasised the necessity of monitoring demand trends to assess how sustainable this stockpiling might be. If firms expect strong sales, recent inventory movements may not create long-term distortions. However, if purchases slow while warehouses remain full, that would imply a different set of risks.

With multiple data points in play, markets will be paying close attention to signals that clarify whether this inventory build represents a short-term strategy or something that might impact broader conditions for a longer period.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Annual inflation in the United States decreased to 2.5% in January, down from 2.6% in December, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.6% on a yearly basis, decreasing from 2.9% in the previous month.

Monthly, both the PCE and core PCE Price Index saw a rise of 0.3%. Personal Income grew by 0.9% while Personal Spending fell by 0.2%.

At the time of reporting, the US Dollar Index rose by 0.04% to 107.33. The USD showed the strongest performance against the New Zealand Dollar.

Monthly changes in currency values indicated various fluctuations, with the USD experiencing a 2.46% increase against the NZD, while different currencies saw varied performances against each other.

Anticipated readings had projected core PCE to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.6% YoY in January, while annual PCE inflation was expected to drop to 2.5%. Central bank policy during March and May is anticipated to remain unchanged.

Higher inflation typically leads central banks to raise interest rates, impacting currency values, while lower inflation can have the opposite effect.

These figures give us a clear indication of where inflation and currency movements are heading. The dip in annual inflation to 2.5% and the decline in core PCE to 2.6% confirm what markets were expecting. A monthly rise of 0.3% for both measures, while not alarming, suggests pressures haven’t evaporated completely.

Personal Income climbing 0.9% sounds encouraging, but the 0.2% drop in Personal Spending throws up some questions. Are consumers pulling back because they feel uncertain, or is this just a temporary adjustment? It’s too early to say, but this will be something to watch, especially with wage growth in focus.

As we saw, the dollar edged up ever so slightly, but its strength over the past month was most evident against the New Zealand Dollar, with a 2.46% gain. That tells us risk sentiment may be shifting, or the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s own policy stance may have played a part. Elsewhere, currency movements varied, reflecting local factors rather than a single global trend.

The market had already priced in these inflation numbers, and with expectations aligning with reality, there’s little reason to think the Federal Reserve will deviate from its projected path in March or May. Central bank decisions often hinge on inflation levels—when prices rise too fast, interest rates tend to follow suit. A slowdown, on the other hand, makes room for easing later on.

In the coming weeks, volatility in currency and derivative markets will rely heavily on fresh economic data. With Personal Spending dipping and inflation cooling, we need to keep an eye on whether demand slows further or picks back up. For now, the prevailing sentiment appears to be one of cautious waiting.

In January, the US advance goods trade balance reported a deficit of $153.26 billion, an increase from $122.0 billion in December. This marks the largest trade deficit recorded, attributed to a surge in imports driven by fears of potential tariffs.

The Census Bureau’s data shows exports rose to $172.2 billion, up by $3.3 billion, while imports escalated to $325.4 billion, an increase of $34.6 billion.

Additionally, advance wholesale inventories reached $905.2 billion, rising 0.7% from December. Meanwhile, advance retail inventories stood at $821.3 billion, decreasing 0.1% from December but increasing 4.9% from the previous year.

A widening trade deficit often reflects robust domestic demand as businesses and consumers increase their purchases from abroad. This particular jump, however, appears to be fuelled not only by economic strength but also by expectations of policy changes. Companies accelerating imports ahead of potential tariff adjustments may have inflated the figures, creating an artificial spike that could ease later in the year. Any reversal could soften import demand, influencing price movements across multiple asset classes.

Exports climbing at a slower pace than imports narrows the scope of trade-driven economic growth. While outbound shipments saw an improvement, the disparity in gains suggests that external demand has not kept pace with the growing appetite for overseas goods in the United States. If this pattern persists, currency fluctuations may become more pronounced, particularly as trade imbalances factor into exchange rate expectations.

Inventory movements provide another layer of insight. The rise in wholesale inventories indicates that businesses are stocking up, either preparing for supply chain uncertainties or anticipating stronger sales. In contrast, the small decline in retail inventories implies that sales have kept pace with stock levels, though the yearly increase signals a larger build-up over time. Any shift in consumer behaviour could alter these dynamics, impacting both supply chains and pricing strategies.

For those navigating price movements in the coming weeks, these figures highlight areas that could drive volatility. Import-heavy sectors may experience changing cost pressures if trade policies adjust. Meanwhile, inventory trends offer clues about upcoming demand shifts, as businesses react to both current conditions and future expectations. With these factors in play, watching for adjustments in global trade policies and domestic demand indicators will be necessary.

Gold’s price (XAU/USD) has dropped by 3%, trading at $2,860, following a recent peak at $2,956. This decline comes after US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China.

January’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures show a monthly core PCE increase from 0.2% to 0.3%, with the headline PCE unchanged at 0.3%.

In China, Gold ETFs are gaining popularity, boosting holdings by 17.7 tons in February. Asian indices faced multiple percentage losses, while European markets showed over 1% losses.

The odds for a June interest rate cut have risen to 71.8%, influencing market sentiment. Gold’s weekly performance reflects a near 3% drop, with support levels at $2,790 and tactical resistance near $2,888.

Interest rates play a role in currency strength, with higher rates typically benefiting the local currency and impacting Gold prices unfavourably. The Fed funds rate is crucial for markets, shaping expectations around future economic conditions.

This recent drop in gold’s price follows a sharp rally that saw it reaching highs of $2,956 before pulling back. The downturn stems from new trade tariffs introduced by Donald Trump, which have injected fresh uncertainty into global markets. While gold is often considered a safe haven during such periods, elevated interest rate expectations and shifting economic data have put downward pressure on the metal.

January’s core PCE reading moving higher to 0.3% signals that inflation remains slightly sticky. Although the headline figure holding firm suggests a lack of major shifts in underlying inflation trends, markets may interpret this as the Federal Reserve having less urgency to cut rates in the immediate term. A stronger-than-expected cost environment can dampen rate-cut enthusiasm, affecting gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.

China’s gold ETFs pulling in nearly 18 tons in February highlights an ongoing appetite for bullion in the region. This demand, especially from institutional buyers, could support prices over time. However, Asian stocks suffering notable drops while European equities declined more than 1% points to a broader unease among investors. Such turbulence often drives capital into defensive assets, yet gold’s retreat suggests traders may be adjusting to shifting monetary expectations.

With traders now placing a 71.8% probability on a rate cut by June, sentiment remains tilted towards looser monetary policy. This should, in theory, offer gold a tailwind. However, shifting expectations can be volatile, particularly as policymakers gauge incoming data. While recent declines have erased a week’s worth of gains, the $2,790 level remains a key point for buyers to defend. Resistance at $2,888 will likely determine whether short-term momentum can shift back upwards.

The ongoing relationship between interest rates and gold remains clear. A push towards higher Fed rates strengthens the US dollar, which can weigh on gold’s price performance. The federal funds rate continues to be a central driver, shaping inflation outlooks and broader market conditions alike. Understanding how rate forecasts shift will be essential in gauging momentum in the weeks ahead.

Canada’s GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 increased due to household spending, exports, and fixed capital formation. Year-on-year growth is at 2.6%, surpassing the 1.8% estimate, while month-on-month growth stands at 0.2%, slightly below the predicted 0.3%.

Household spending recorded a rise of 1.4% in Q4, the highest since Q2 2022, primarily due to new vehicles and financial services. Residential construction grew by 3.9%, the strongest since Q1 2021, supported by ownership transfer costs and new projects.

Business investment rose by 0.7%, with a notable 4.2% increase in machinery and equipment investment. The GDP deflator for Q4 was 0.9%, influenced by rising energy export prices, while the annual deflator for 2024 reached 3.0%.

Wage growth for Q4 rose by 1.0%, linked to expansion in the service sector. Annual wage growth was recorded at 5.9%, marking the slowest rate observed since 2020.

These figures illustrate a higher-than-anticipated expansion in overall economic activity, driven by stronger household consumption, exports, and business investment. While the economy demonstrated resilience, expectations had varied slightly, particularly in regard to short-term growth estimates.

The steady rise in consumer spending, particularly on vehicles and financial services, indicates that households maintained purchasing power despite concerns about borrowing costs. Property investment also played a role, with residential construction growth reaching its highest pace in almost three years. This was supported by new property developments and transaction-related costs, which suggest that housing demand remained healthy.

On the corporate side, the increase in machinery and equipment investment points to confidence among businesses, as firms expanded their asset bases to support production and efficiency. A positive shift in capital expenditures can lead to higher productivity in the long run, reinforcing future output growth.

Rising energy export prices contributed to the GDP deflator, indicating that trade conditions were affecting broader price levels. Inflation-linked growth in nominal output remains an element to watch, as it feeds into revenue expectations.

Wage growth data, while still indicating expansion, has slowed compared to prior years. A 1.0% rise in Q4 earnings reflects strength in certain industries, particularly services, yet the annualised pace of 5.9% marks the slowest increase since 2020. This suggests that while the labour market remains robust, momentum is moderating, which could affect disposable income levels in future quarters.

For those analysing short-term market movements, these figures provide useful insight into key economic drivers over the coming weeks. With consumer activity maintaining strength, businesses investing in growth, and wage increases slowing, economic signals appear mixed but lean towards resilience. Tracking these developments will be necessary when assessing expectations around policy decisions and market positioning.

The goods trade balance in the United States for January was $-153.3 billion, falling short of anticipated $-114.7 billion. This represents a wider deficit than expected.

In related updates, EUR/USD is stabilising around the 1.0400 mark after the release of PCE inflation data. Gold has reached a low point of below $2,840, influenced by ongoing uncertainties regarding trade policies.

GBP/USD retains a positive trend just above 1.2600 following the inflation data. The upcoming week will focus on US payroll statistics, the ECB’s rate meeting, and ITV’s results amidst renewed concerns about tariffs from the Trump administration.

The larger-than-expected trade deficit in the United States suggests that imports surpassed exports by a greater margin than analysts had predicted. This often puts downward pressure on the dollar, as more capital is flowing out of the country. However, the market does not always react immediately, and we must consider whether this widening deficit will push policymakers towards structural adjustments.

Meanwhile, the euro is holding steady around 1.0400, which indicates that traders have largely priced in the latest core PCE inflation reading. Given that this measure of inflation is one the Federal Reserve watches closely, its impact on rate expectations is key. If inflation remains persistent, it strengthens the case for tighter monetary policy, potentially affecting dollar strength. For now, the market appears to be digesting the numbers rather than reacting forcefully.

Gold has dipped below $2,840, weighed down by concerns over trade policy. The precious metal has long been a hedge during uncertain periods, and traders clearly remain unsettled by the direction of global trade discussions. If further restrictions or tariffs materialise, gold could see renewed buying, but in the immediate term, sentiment seems to be leaning towards caution rather than panic.

Sterling remains slightly above 1.2600, reflecting continued optimism after the latest inflation figures. The upcoming week will be key in determining whether this momentum holds. With US payroll data on the horizon, we are likely to see some shifts in dollar positioning. Additionally, the ECB is set to discuss interest rates, which could impact euro crosses, indirectly influencing GBP trends as well. Traders would do well to stay alert to any policy signals that diverge from expectations.

On the corporate front, ITV’s earnings report will be closely watched. Beyond the numbers themselves, the broader discussion around advertising revenue and economic outlooks will be telling. At the same time, renewed import restrictions proposed by the Trump camp could unsettle broader markets, especially if they hint at widespread protectionist measures. These elements combined mean traders should brace for potential volatility across multiple asset classes in the days ahead.

In January, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) core rate rose by 2.6%, matching expectations. Monthly core PCE increased by 0.3%, with unrounded figures showing a rise of 0.285%.

Headline PCE also came in at 2.5% year-on-year, consistent with forecasts. Personal income saw an increase of 0.9%, surpassing the expected 0.3%, while personal spending declined by 0.2%.

Real personal spending fell by 0.5%, with the savings rate rising to 4.6% from 3.8%. Vehicle spending dropped, potentially due to adverse weather, with expectations of recovery as conditions improve.

These numbers provide a precise view of inflation and consumer behaviour at the start of the year. A 2.6% rise in core PCE suggests that price increases remain steady, aligning with what was widely anticipated. The monthly increase of 0.3%, with an unrounded 0.285%, reinforces this stability. No unexpected shifts mean the broader trend is still in place, without indications of accelerating or slowing inflation pressure beyond what was predicted.

Annual headline PCE at 2.5% confirms that general price growth remains in check, providing another piece of data in line with forecasts. While core figures strip out the more volatile food and energy components, headline numbers offer a view of overall cost changes faced by households. With both coming in as expected, there is little in this release to suggest any abrupt adjustments in economic assumptions.

Income growth stood out, rising by 0.9% when only 0.3% was expected. A result like this indicates that people earned more than originally thought, whether through wages, investments, or other means. However, personal spending dropped by 0.2%, meaning that additional earnings weren’t immediately channelled into consumption. Instead, more was set aside, as reflected by the rise in the savings rate from 3.8% to 4.6%.

A steeper drop in real personal spending, down 0.5%, points to inflation-adjusted consumption pulling back even further. Within this, vehicle purchases saw particular weakness, which may have been a result of harsh weather conditions making it difficult for buyers to visit dealerships. If weather was indeed the key reason, demand should return as conditions normalise.

For the weeks ahead, these figures offer a clear reference point. Inflation is not deviating from expectations, spending has softened slightly, and households chose to save more of their income. Each of these trends will be watched closely for confirmation or adjustment as new data emerges.

In January, wholesale inventories in the United States increased by 0.7%, surpassing the forecast of 0.1%. This growth is indicative of inventory management levels in the market.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD currency pair is stabilising around 1.0400 following the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data. Gold has dropped to below $2,840, reflecting bearish pressure amid uncertainties regarding trade policy.

GBP/USD also remains firm above 1.2600 in response to the PCE results. The upcoming week will feature key events, including US payroll data and an ECB rate meeting, alongside a focus on tariff concerns from the Trump administration.

The uptick in wholesale inventories suggests that businesses are either stockpiling in anticipation of stronger demand or struggling with slower sales, leading to a build-up of goods. A rise of 0.7% instead of the expected 0.1% means businesses are holding onto more products than analysts had estimated. If this continues, it might indicate weaker consumer demand, which would impact future production rates. It will be key to monitor whether this trend extends into the next couple of months, as it could shape expectations for broader economic activity.

Over in currency markets, the euro’s relative steadiness suggests that traders have largely priced in the latest US inflation data. For now, the pair is showing little intention of a sharp movement in either direction. If there is a fresh development from the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, we might see a clearer trend emerge. Likewise, the drop in gold prices below $2,840 aligns with traders seeking safer positions elsewhere, particularly as trade policy uncertainty weighs on sentiment. Those active in such markets should keep a close eye on how the US approaches tariffs, as any unexpected moves could trigger volatility.

Looking at the pound, its stability above 1.2600 suggests that investors are comfortable with how the latest inflation figures are shaping expectations for both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. As we move ahead, the labour report in the US will be one of the determining factors for rate bets. If employment figures come in stronger than predicted, the dollar could regain strength, applying pressure on both the euro and the pound.

At the same time, traders need to account for the European Central Bank’s meeting later in the week. If policymakers indicate a firmer stance on policy adjustments, the euro may break out of its current range. However, if they remain cautious, we are likely to see limited movement. Other forces at play include ongoing trade discussions in Washington. This could introduce fresh shocks depending on how restrictive any proposed measures turn out to be.

For those navigating short-term trades, staying attuned to payroll data and central bank rhetoric will be key. The next few sessions could shape expectations not just for the month ahead but for broader currency and commodity trends.