Canada’s current account deficit was recorded at -4.99 billion CAD for the fourth quarter, surpassing expectations of -3.2 billion CAD. This outcome indicates a larger-than-expected divergence in trade balance dynamics.

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate saw a retreat, moving below the 1.0400 support level amid a strengthening US Dollar. The pair’s decline reflects broader market sentiment influenced by tariff concerns and economic data releases.

Gold prices decreased, reaching two-week lows just under $2,880 per ounce as US Dollar yields increased. The market remains under pressure amidst evolving economic narratives.

In cryptocurrency, Litecoin prices surged by 24% recently. Institutional accumulation of Litecoin suggests a potential market shift, despite bearish trends elsewhere.

Inflation trends show a sharp decline expected in France for February, largely due to reduced regulated electricity prices. Yet, price increases persist in services across France and the wider Eurozone, highlighting varying inflationary pressures.

The larger-than-expected current account deficit in Canada suggests that trade imbalances may be deeper than initially forecast. A shortfall of nearly five billion Canadian dollars, compared to the anticipated 3.2 billion, reflects stronger external pressures on the economy. This could influence future monetary policy decisions, particularly if it leads to concerns over capital flows or external debt levels. Market participants should remain aware of potential consequences for the Canadian dollar and how policymakers might respond.

The drop in the Euro against the US Dollar, pushing below the 1.0400 mark, reinforces ongoing strength in the greenback. Tariff concerns and recent economic reports have likely played a role, weakening confidence in the Eurozone’s economic outlook. Traders focusing on currency derivatives must consider how shifting trade policies and upcoming data releases could drive further movement. Close attention should also be paid to upcoming European Central Bank comments or actions that might counteract this decline.

Gold’s pullback to two-week lows below $2,880 per ounce can be attributed to rising US Dollar yields. As bond yields increase, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold rises, leading to downward pressure on prices. This development is noteworthy, particularly for those engaged in metals trading, as it reflects broader moves in safe-haven assets. Keeping track of bond market fluctuations remains essential for anticipating further price adjustments in the commodities space.

Meanwhile, Litecoin’s surge stands out against broader weakness in cryptocurrency markets. A 24% gain signals strong institutional interest that could be shifting market direction. Despite prevailing bearish conditions among other cryptocurrencies, this rise raises questions about whether sustained accumulation will unfold. Actors in digital asset markets should assess whether this move offers short-term opportunities or suggests a deeper trend reversal.

On the inflation front, France is expected to see a sharp reduction in February, largely due to cuts in regulated electricity prices. However, inflationary pressures in services remain clear both in France and across the Eurozone. This divergence between energy-related costs and service price increases could lead to uneven policy responses. Those monitoring inflation-sensitive assets must gauge whether lower headline figures will influence central bank guidance or whether persistent service sector inflation will keep rate concerns alive.

The USDCHF currency pair is experiencing fluctuations near a swing area between 0.8913 and 0.8923, coinciding with a movement of the 100-day moving average towards this level. The lowest point for the week has seen prices rise to the 100-hour moving average and a swing area between 0.8965 and 0.89745.

Today, the price has moved above the 100-hour moving average, settling near this level as it approaches the 200-hour moving average. Observations indicate an upward extension beyond this threshold, which could suggest a more positive trend ahead.

Market participants have been watching as movements between these support and resistance levels continue to unfold. The current positioning near the 100-hour moving average gives a clearer indication of recent shifts in sentiment. This level has acted as a temporary barrier, and the ability to remain above it influences short-term direction.

With the price now edging closer to the 200-hour moving average, any sustained progression past this point could reinforce confidence in additional upside. Past attempts to break above similar levels have often seen resistance, so a move beyond would suggest a greater willingness from buyers to stay engaged.

On the other hand, if selling pressure increases and price action starts drifting back towards the prior swing areas, attention should turn to how strongly those levels hold as support. A drop below 0.8965 could signal that recent momentum has weakened, bringing the 100-hour moving average back into focus. From there, reactions around the 100-day moving average would provide further clues about whether the broader trend remains intact or if further declines could be considered.

The ongoing movement between these technical markers highlights the importance of being attentive to shifting dynamics. Reactions near key moving averages will provide insight into where sentiment is heading next. Continued monitoring of how price behaves around established zones will remain essential in the coming sessions.

The United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index for the fourth quarter recorded a rate of 2.4%, surpassing the forecasted 2.2%. This suggests an increase in the overall prices of goods and services in the economy during that period.

The data indicates possible inflationary pressures, which can affect various market dynamics. Understanding these figures is essential for those analysing economic trends and formulating investment strategies.

A higher-than-expected GDP Price Index suggests that inflationary pressures may not be fading as quickly as some had anticipated. With the rate coming in at 2.4% rather than the projected 2.2%, it signals that prices across the economy continued to rise more than analysts had foreseen.

For traders, particularly those engaged in derivatives, these figures matter because inflation influences interest rate decisions from policymakers. If inflation lingers, central banks may delay any anticipated rate cuts or even consider tightening monetary policy further. That would, in turn, impact bond yields, equity valuations, and currency fluctuations.

It also means that volatility could increase in markets reliant on central bank expectations. Those trading interest rate futures, for example, may need to reassess their positions, as any shifts in sentiment around monetary policy will likely be reflected in price movements. Equities, particularly those in rate-sensitive sectors, could also react as traders weigh the possibility that borrowing costs may remain elevated for longer.

Beyond that, inflation data such as this can influence hedging strategies. Those managing large portfolios may see the need to adjust inflation-hedged positions or reconsider exposure to assets that typically react strongly to price pressure—such as commodities or inflation-linked bonds.

In the coming weeks, attention should remain on additional economic reports that could either confirm or challenge this trend. Data on employment, consumer spending, and corporate earnings will provide further insight into whether inflation is persistent enough to alter market expectations further. If further indicators point in the same direction as the recent data, we could see traders adjusting their strategies to account for the possibility of a delay in monetary easing.

We will also be looking at statements from central bank officials, as their comments could reinforce or contradict market reactions. If policymakers acknowledge sustained inflation concerns, markets may quickly reprice rate expectations, leading to sharp short-term movements across assets.

With the current uncertainty, flexibility will be key. Traders should be aware that shifting economic expectations could impact asset correlations and volatility patterns. Markets can move swiftly when expectations change, making risk management strategies more important than usual.

US initial jobless claims reached 242,000, surpassing the estimate of 221,000, marking the highest level since early October. The previous week’s claims were revised from 219,000 to 220,000, with the four-week moving average rising to 224,000 from 215,500.

Continuing claims were reported at 1.862 million, slightly lower than the estimated 1.872 million. The prior week’s claims were revised down to 1.867 million, and the four-week moving average for continuing claims saw a marginal increase to 1.865 million.

Initial claims reflect a single week’s data; however, a sustained rise could suggest a weakening job market. In market reactions, U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the two-year yield at 4.100% and the ten-year yield at 4.5%. Stock futures also showed recovery, with the Dow up 87 points, the S&P up 34 points, and the Nasdaq up 167 points.

A surge in initial jobless claims, especially when surpassing forecasts by such a margin, can indicate emerging shifts in employment stability. At 242,000, the latest figure is not only the highest since early October but also well above the predicted 221,000. While a single week’s numbers may not set the tone for long-term trends, the steady increase in the four-week moving average to 224,000 suggests that joblessness is not merely fluctuating but possibly sustaining an upward push.

Continuing claims, on the other hand, came in slightly below expectations at 1.862 million. A downward revision of the prior week’s claims to 1.867 million follows a small increase in the four-week average to 1.865 million. This suggests that while more people are filing for unemployment initially, overall job retention among those already claiming benefits has not drastically changed.

One of the more immediate reactions came from bond markets. The rise in Treasury yields, with the two-year climbing to 4.1% and the ten-year reaching 4.5%, signals shifting expectations regarding interest rates. A stronger-than-expected rise in jobless claims could influence sentiment around potential policy directions. If economic data continues to indicate weakening employment figures, we could see adjustments in expectations around future rate decisions.

Stock futures appeared to stabilise despite the labour market data. The Dow climbed 87 points, the S&P added 34 points, and the Nasdaq showed larger gains at 167 points higher. Markets seem to be reassessing the balance between slowing employment trends and potential shifts in monetary policy. Investors may be considering whether this data dents the case for prolonged high interest rates.

In the weeks ahead, it will be important to watch how these numbers evolve. If initial claims remain elevated and continuing claims start to follow the same pattern, the case for a softening labour market would strengthen. On the other hand, if subsequent reports show declines in filings, concerns over broader economic weakness could ease. Treasury yields may remain reactive as traders digest each new development, particularly with inflation and rate policy still shaping sentiment. Equity markets, too, could move with volatility depending on whether new data reinforces this latest trend or signals stabilisation.

For those involved in trading strategies tied to macroeconomic indicators, remaining agile in response to upcoming employment data will be key. A persistent increase in jobless claims could shift positioning in rate-sensitive sectors, while a surprise decline might reverse some of today’s pricing momentum. Watching policy signals and bond movements could offer further clues about how expectations are shifting.

Initial jobless claims in the United States rose to 242,000 for the week ending February 21, exceeding expectations of 221,000.

The report indicates an upward trend in unemployment claims amid broader market fluctuations. In related financial news, the EUR/USD pair faces pressure, approaching key support levels, while GBP/USD trades around 1.2630 due to increased US dollar demand. Gold prices have dropped, reaching two-week lows near $2,880 per ounce, and Bitcoin is recovering slightly to around $86,000 after a significant decline earlier in the week. Additionally, February inflation in France is expected to decrease, whereas prices in services remain high across the Eurozone.

An increase in jobless claims usually points to vulnerabilities within the labour market. When the numbers exceed estimates by such a wide margin, it often reshapes market expectations about the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Traders are now factoring in how policymakers may react—whether they see this as a temporary fluctuation or an indication of deeper issues. We must also consider the broader context. If job losses continue to climb, bond markets could start pricing in a looser monetary policy sooner than previously anticipated. The knock-on effect would spill over into other asset classes, particularly currencies and commodities.

For those dealing with the euro, the currency has been slipping due to renewed pressure, with levels now in sight that could trigger a sharper selloff. When price edges closer to these thresholds, the risk of stop-loss cascades increases. We have seen this before—price stalls, pressure builds, and once a key floor gives way, momentum accelerates. If the pair stabilises and rebounds, traders might need to adjust their expectations on dollar dominance. Meanwhile, sterling is holding firmer, but this strength may not be entirely domestic. Heightened demand for the greenback is shaping price action, meaning any shift in economic sentiment or central bank rhetoric could quickly reorder priorities.

Gold, often a safe haven, has taken a hit. A fall to two-week lows suggests investors are placing more trust elsewhere, whether in cash or alternative defensive assets. When a traditional hedge asset weakens alongside turbulence in the labour market, it raises the question: is fear or optimism running the show? Watching how bullion reacts in the coming days will give us clues on whether the latest selloff is exhaustion or repositioning.

On the digital asset side, Bitcoin is attempting a recovery after a sharp drop. When large swings strike, they often lead to forced liquidations in leveraged trades, shaking out weaker positions before stabilisation can occur. A bounce does not necessarily mean a full reversal—it may just be a temporary relief rally. Whether this rebound has staying power will depend on how sentiment settles across risk markets more broadly.

Inflation data from France suggests a mild pullback, yet services prices are still running high across the Eurozone. If this trend holds, policymakers may hesitate to ease too quickly, keeping rates elevated for longer than some expected. For traders, this means recalibrating assumptions about rate differentials, particularly in relation to the US.

With all these moving parts, we must remain alert. Rapid shifts in expectations can alter market positioning unpredictably, and anticipating these changes before they crystallise into wider trends is where the real edge lies.

The second reading of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 shows growth of 2.3%, matching expectations. The growth rate for Q3 was recorded at 2.8%.

Final sales increased by 3.2%, while consumer spending also rose by 4.2%. Inflation rates were above expectations, with the GDP deflator at 2.4% and core PCE at 2.7%.

In terms of contribution, consumption added 2.79%, government contributed 0.49%, and net international trade accounted for 0.12%. Inventories, however, decreased by 0.81%. The revised data indicates rising inflation, particularly in PCE services excluding energy and housing.

The revised figures paint a clear picture of steady economic expansion, albeit at a slightly reduced pace compared to the previous quarter. A 2.3% growth rate aligns with earlier projections, reinforcing confidence that the economy remains on a stable path. The modest slowdown from 2.8% in Q3 reflects a natural adjustment rather than a sharp downturn.

Consumer spending remains strong, showing an increase of 4.2%, suggesting that households continue to support growth despite persistent price pressures. The 3.2% rise in final sales confirms that demand remains intact. However, inflation readings surpassing estimates add to concerns about price stability. A GDP deflator of 2.4% and core PCE at 2.7% signal price increases beyond initial forecasts, highlighting that inflationary forces are more persistent than some had anticipated.

Delving deeper, consumption provided the largest boost to growth, contributing 2.79%. Government spending added 0.49%, showing a steady hand from public expenditures. Net international trade’s 0.12% contribution reflects a stabilising global trade position. Conversely, inventories declined by 0.81%, indicating that businesses are drawing down stockpiles, potentially in response to uncertain demand or shifts in supply chain expectations.

Higher inflation within PCE services, excluding energy and housing, suggests that price pressures remain concentrated in core spending areas. Elevated costs in these sectors carry implications for monetary policy, as persistently strong underlying inflation may warrant a reassessment of policy direction.

Given these dynamics, market participants must weigh the balance between sustained growth and inflation concerns. Policymakers will be monitoring whether current conditions justify adjustments to interest rates. The next few weeks will provide further clarity on how shifting inflation trends affect expectations. As new data emerges, it will be essential to reassess positions, taking into account both inflation’s effect on purchasing power and the broader trajectory of economic performance.

In January, United States durable goods orders excluding defence increased from -2.4% to 3.5%. This rise indicates a notable reversal in the previous trend.

The market showed varying reactions, with the US Dollar experiencing upward pressure. The EUR/USD pair approached a key support level of 1.0400 as tariffs affected trading.

In other markets, gold prices declined to around $2,880 per ounce, while Bitcoin recovered slightly to approximately $86,000 after a sharp drop. Meanwhile, inflation rates in France are expected to reduce, particularly due to a cut in regulated electricity prices.

This jump in durable goods orders excluding defence shows that businesses are increasing investment after a period of slowdown. It suggests companies are looking ahead with more confidence, which often ties in with broader economic activity. The reversal from negative to positive figures could influence expectations for future policy decisions.

With the dollar gaining strength, it put pressure on other currencies. The EUR/USD exchange rate moving towards 1.0400 reflects this shift, with tariffs adding another factor that traders must weigh. Currency movement at this level means there could be testing of lower price points, depending on how further data emerges.

Meanwhile, gold took a step back, dropping to about $2,880 per ounce. The decline shows lower demand for safe-haven assets, at least for now. Bitcoin, on the other hand, found some footing around $86,000 after its previous plunge. The recovery may indicate that short-term selling pressure has eased, but traders need to watch closely for follow-through momentum before drawing conclusions.

Inflation trends remain important, especially with expectations of a slowdown in France. Lower regulated electricity costs play a role here, easing some of the price pressures that had built up. If similar patterns start appearing elsewhere, it could adjust how inflation is perceived in broader economic forecasts.

In the coming weeks, the focus should be on whether these shifts continue. Strength in business investment could push certain assets further, while currency traders need to monitor support levels carefully. The pullback in gold and the rebound in Bitcoin may signal early positioning adjustments, though a clearer picture will emerge with more data. Inflation changes in Europe will be watched closely, particularly for their effect on future policy responses.

In January, US durable goods orders increased by 3.1%, surpassing the expected rise of 2.0%. The previous month’s data was revised from -2.2% to -1.8%.

Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose by 0.8%, compared to the anticipated 0.3%. The earlier figure for these orders was revised down from 0.5% to 0.2%.

Excluding transportation, orders remained flat at 0.0%, while excluding defence, they increased by 3.5%, a revision from the earlier -2.4% which was adjusted to -1.8%.

January’s rise in durable goods orders reflects a stronger level of activity in the sector than many had expected. The revised data from December, which was adjusted upwards, changes the context slightly but does not erase the general softness seen at the end of last year. That said, fresh figures suggest a rebound, most clearly in headline orders, which advanced beyond market forecasts.

Looking deeper, demand for core capital goods—those that exclude aircraft and defence—was also more resilient than anticipated. The prior figure for this category was revised lower, but the latest numbers indicate firms continued to invest, outpacing expectations. This category is particularly useful in assessing business confidence, so an upswing at this moment hints at a more optimistic outlook from companies looking ahead.

On the other hand, not all areas reported the same momentum. Orders outside of transport came in unchanged, meaning the broader trend for manufacturing demand remains uneven. However, once defence-related goods are removed, orders expanded at a faster pace than initially thought, again reflecting an improvement rather than further weakness.

These details shift attention to what comes next. Given that business investment appears to be holding up, there is reason to consider how this might affect sentiment and positioning. Numbers from the previous month were not as weak as first published, and with January showing renewed strength, expectations may start adjusting upward. Markets could react accordingly, especially in areas sensitive to changes in industrial activity.

Data releases in the coming weeks will have to be watched closely. If further reports confirm sustained demand, adjustments may be needed in response to shifting expectations. However, if this proves to be a one-off bounce, positions based on stronger durable goods figures might need rethinking. There are also broader factors at play, with policy decisions still shaping overall conditions. The next moves will rely on whether this recovery in orders persists or if it gives way to fresh uncertainty.

Continuing jobless claims in the United States reached 1.862 million as of February 14, which is lower than the anticipated figure of 1.87 million. This decrease suggests a slight improvement in the job market.

In currency markets, EUR/USD is testing support around 1.0400, driven by a strengthening US Dollar in light of upcoming Federal Reserve remarks. GBP/USD is currently around 1.2630, reflecting renewed demand for the Greenback.

Gold prices are experiencing downward pressure, trading near two-week lows below $2,880 per ounce, influenced by higher yields and a stronger US Dollar. Meanwhile, Bitcoin shows some recovery, trading around $86,000 after a sharp drop earlier in the week.

Inflation trends in February indicate a potential decrease in France, attributed to a reduction in regulated electricity prices. However, other Eurozone countries continue to see rising prices, particularly in services.

The latest figures show that fewer people are continuing to claim unemployment benefits than expected. While the difference is small, it still hints at a steadier employment situation. A healthier job market generally feeds into stronger consumer spending, which in turn can affect central bank policy decisions.

In foreign exchange, the Euro is struggling against the Dollar, hovering around a key level. A stronger Dollar, partly influenced by anticipation of upcoming Federal Reserve comments, is driving this move. The Pound is also under pressure, but its current level suggests there is still reasonable demand.

Gold is coming under pressure, slipping to its lowest point in two weeks. Rising bond yields and renewed strength in the Dollar are making the metal less attractive. Investors appear to be shifting funds away from safe-haven assets, at least in the short term.

Bitcoin, after suffering a sharp decline earlier in the week, is showing some recovery. Trading around $86,000, the cryptocurrency remains volatile, though buyers seem willing to step in at current levels. Market participants will be watching whether this bounce has momentum or if another leg lower is in store.

Inflation data suggests prices in France may be easing slightly, helped by lower regulated electricity tariffs. However, elsewhere in the Eurozone, costs—particularly for services—are still climbing. This creates a difficult environment for monetary authorities, who must balance inflation control with the broader economic outlook.

As the North American session opens, the EURUSD and GBPUSD have experienced declines followed by recoveries, while the USDJPY has responded positively to easing risk-off sentiment after Nvidia’s earnings report. US yields are up, crude oil trades above $69, and gold is down over 1% for the second time in three days, now at $2886.

Bitcoin has increased by 2.87%, reaching $2885, but has fluctuated from a high of $99,508 to a low of $82,133 since last Friday. The price has rebounded towards the broken 38.2% level at $85,520.

The economic calendar features several significant announcements, including discussions from FOMC members and various key indicators. Expectations for the Preliminary GDP are at 2.3%, with unemployment claims forecasted at 222,000.

In equity markets, futures indicate a higher open, with the Dow expected to rise by 111 points, the S&P by 37 points, and the Nasdaq by 163 points. Recent closes varied, with the Dow declining, while the S&P remained nearly unchanged.

European indices reflect mixed results, with the German DAX down 0.65% and France’s CAC down 0.31%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 has increased by 0.28%. US debt yields are higher across the board, with the 10-year yield at 4.292%.

In commodity markets, crude oil is up by 41%. Gold is down by 1.04%, and Bitcoin shows an increase of 2.67% at $86,313.

The early movements in EURUSD and GBPUSD suggest a period of uncertainty as both pairs initially fell before reversing direction. This indicates shifting sentiment, with traders reacting to external influences rather than committing to a clear trend. Meanwhile, USDJPY has strengthened on reduced risk aversion, helped by a boost in confidence following Nvidia’s earnings results. These shifts imply a market still absorbing broader economic developments, adjusting positions accordingly.

Bond yields in the US have pushed higher, suggesting expectations of continued resilience in economic activity. The 10-year yield at 4.292% aligns with this positioning, as investors reassess the balance between growth prospects and potential policy adjustments. These changes in fixed income markets should not be overlooked, as they offer insight into broader risk preferences.

Crude oil maintaining levels above $69 suggests steady demand despite persistent concerns about global economic momentum. The movement in gold, down more than 1% for the second time in three days, points to reduced safe-haven demand. This decline comes as markets adjust to stronger yields, making interest-bearing assets more attractive compared to non-yielding commodities.

Bitcoin’s fluctuations, ranging from $99,508 to $82,133 since last Friday, highlight the asset’s continued volatility. The rebound toward the broken 38.2% retracement level at $85,520 suggests technical traders are closely monitoring key support and resistance levels. With the latest increase of 2.87% to $2885, there is an ongoing tug-of-war between short-term momentum and broader structural forces.

Upcoming economic data will play a key role in shaping expectations in the near term. The focus on Preliminary GDP figures, forecasted at 2.3%, will offer insights into overall growth momentum, while unemployment claims projected at 222,000 will serve as a gauge for labour market strength. These indicators will help refine expectations regarding future adjustments in monetary policy.

Equities are positioned for a strong open, with futures pointing higher. A projected increase of 111 points for the Dow, 37 for the S&P, and 163 for the Nasdaq suggests renewed optimism. The mixed results in previous sessions show hesitation, particularly with the Dow declining while the S&P remained largely unchanged.

European markets reflect a similarly measured stance. With Germany’s DAX down 0.65% and France’s CAC lower by 0.31%, sentiment appears cautious across key indices. However, the UK’s FTSE 100 stands apart, rising 0.28%, suggesting regional differences in risk appetite.

In commodities, crude oil prices continue to gain, showing a 41% increase, reinforcing buying interest in energy markets. Gold remains under pressure, down 1.04%, while Bitcoin’s latest movement to $86,313 confirms persistent trading activity in digital assets.

Taken together, these movements point to a market adjusting to shifting expectations on economic growth, policy direction, and risk dynamics. Traders reacting to these developments should remain aware of the momentum already in place, while keeping a close eye on upcoming data releases that may reshape sentiment once again.