Ukrainian President Zelenskiy stated that his discussions with G7 leaders were productive and that Ukraine is nearing a deal with the US regarding economic cooperation. He expressed optimism about signing an agreement soon in Washington.

Zelenskiy rejected former President Trump’s claim of $500 billion restitution for US defence support, asserting he would not relinquish Ukraine’s natural resources. He emphasised he would not agree to terms that burden future generations.

Negotiations about a minerals deal are reportedly in the final stages, with Ukraine offering to return two dollars for every dollar of US aid. Additionally, sources indicate potential restrictions on Ukraine’s access to Starlink internet services related to the minerals agreement.

Zelenskiy’s comments suggest that discussions with world leaders are moving towards more structured economic arrangements. The way he described the negotiations implies that both sides are actively working on terms they find mutually beneficial. Given the pace at which these talks are progressing, an official announcement could come sooner rather than later. However, as is often the case with such agreements, unforeseen delays could arise.

Donald’s remarks about financial restitution stand in stark contrast to what Zelenskiy has outlined. The former US leader’s suggestion that Ukraine should compensate Washington for military assistance is not something Kyiv appears willing to entertain. Instead, Zelenskiy has drawn a clear line, indicating that any economic arrangement must not come at an unsustainable cost for Ukraine’s future. His response also reaffirmed that strategic assets would not be used as leverage. That stance, if maintained, sets the framework for how he intends to manage Kyiv’s external partnerships.

The mineral discussions are reaching a decisive point. From what has been revealed, the proposed structure would see Ukraine reimbursing aid at a fixed rate, which would create a framework for long-term obligations between Kyiv and Washington. This type of deal would embed Ukraine’s economic future further within existing alliances. While the mechanics of these repayments are not fully outlined, even the basic structure suggests a commitment to deeper financial entanglement between the two governments.

On a different note, reports indicate restrictions may be placed on Ukraine’s access to Starlink services. These limitations, supposedly linked to the mineral discussions, would mark a shift in how critical infrastructure is provided to Kyiv. Starlink has played an instrumental role in maintaining communications, and any change in access could have widespread effects. The extent of these reported restrictions remains to be seen, but if enforced, they could introduce new logistical considerations.

Mexico’s first half-month inflation for February decreased to 0.15%, down from the previous 0.2%. This change reflects ongoing trends in the country’s economic conditions.

Further assessments of the inflation data may provide more insights into future economic policies and their effects on the market. Investors and analysts are monitoring the data closely for any potential impacts on broader economic indicators.

The drop in inflation to 0.15% suggests a slowdown in rising prices, which could point to easing pressure on consumers and businesses. This is particularly relevant in assessing the central bank’s next steps, as policymakers will weigh whether current monetary measures are having the intended effect. A softer inflation reading may strengthen the argument for keeping interest rates steady or even adjusting them in the months ahead.

For those trading derivatives, this slight cooling in prices can influence expectations around future rate moves. If inflation continues to moderate, it could reinforce the case for a less aggressive monetary stance. On the other hand, a temporary dip might not be enough to shift policy direction, leading to little change in market sentiment.

Looking deeper, markets are also considering how this adjustment fits within broader economic trends. The fall in inflation aligns with what some had predicted, given recent shifts in consumer demand and external price pressures. However, future readings will be key in determining whether this decrease is part of a sustained pattern or merely a short-term fluctuation.

While analysts are digesting these figures, it remains important to track additional data releases that might offer more clarity. Labour market strength, consumer confidence, and global commodity movements will all feed into the larger picture. The latest inflation figures are just one part of this equation, and markets will likely remain sensitive to any fresh signals that could confirm—or challenge—current assumptions.

For now, traders should stay alert to any policy commentary from decision-makers, as even subtle shifts in rhetoric could drive volatility. If central bank officials acknowledge this lower inflation print as a cause for policy adjustment, it could reshape short-term market expectations. If they dismiss it as inconclusive, then positioning might remain relatively unchanged until the next batch of data provides a clearer signal.

The NASDAQ index initially rose, reaching 19,644.23 before declining to 19,423, down 100 points or 0.52%. This downturn occurred after failing to surpass the broken 200-hour moving average at 19,661.80.

Currently, the low from last week at 19,415.48 is being tested. If this level is breached, there could be additional downward momentum.

The trading range spanning back to November 21 has a low of 18,831 and a high of 20,204.58, representing a potential 6.74% decline from December’s all-time high.

Nvidia will announce earnings after the close on Wednesday, with shares up 0.24%. Conversely, Palantir shares are down 9.19%, currently testing the 200-hour moving average.

The drop in the NASDAQ index highlights a shift in momentum, with a retreat from earlier gains as selling pressure picked up near the 200-hour moving average. The attempt to reclaim that level at 19,661.80 was short-lived, creating a point of resistance that traders should now factor into their decisions. With the index already testing last week’s low, any decisive break lower could lead to an extended decline.

Looking at the broader range established since late November, the potential downside remains measurable. A full retracement to November’s lows would represent a loss exceeding 800 points from current levels. While such a move wouldn’t erase the longer-term uptrend, it would reinforce the idea that upward momentum is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain without clearer catalysts.

Market participants are keeping an eye on Nvidia’s earnings, given its influence on sentiment, particularly within the technology sector. The stock’s modest rise ahead of results suggests tempered expectations. Any surprise in revenue or outlook could have a ripple effect, influencing broader sentiment beyond just semiconductors.

Meanwhile, Palantir’s decline brings it close to technical support at the 200-hour moving average. The reaction around this level will be worth following, as a sustained drop below could invite additional selling. The speed of this pullback raises the question of whether recent gains were overextended, making the stock susceptible to further volatility.

This week’s price action underscores the importance of identifying critical thresholds. Rejections at resistance, coupled with declines toward key support levels, suggest that markets are in a phase where both buyers and sellers are testing conviction. Momentum traders, in particular, should remain mindful of whether price movements are sustaining follow-through or stalling near well-watched levels.

Beyond just index movements, the reactions to earnings reports in the coming sessions may provide further clarity. Nvidia’s results could either alleviate concerns or add to the downside risks that have emerged over the past few days. At the same time, stocks already under pressure, such as Palantir, will need to show stability at technical levels to avoid further selling pressure.

PepsiCo, headquartered in New York and founded in 1965, operates in over 200 countries with a diverse brand portfolio including Pepsi and Tropicana. Despite a stock sell-off in May 2023, the company remains in a bullish cycle, with anticipated patterns suggesting support levels between 142.13 and 116.60.

The stock found support at the expected levels, showing a bounce from 142.13. Projections indicate a further rally towards 162.53, where traders should consider taking profits while maintaining a stop at 116. Overall, the outlook for PepsiCo appears positive in both the short and long term.

PepsiCo’s movements over the past year have followed the patterns we expected. The dip to the support range between 142.13 and 116.60 played out almost exactly to plan, with the stock reversing at the upper bound of that zone and beginning its climb. What this tells us is that market participants recognised value in those levels, which could mean they will serve as a foundation for future price action.

With the stock showing a clear recovery from that support area, the next target remains 162.53. If momentum holds steady, that level could be reached sooner rather than later. Traders managing risk should be attentive near that price, since it represents an area where profit-taking could introduce volatility. Taking partial profits while the price approaches 162.53 is a reasonable approach, while keeping stop-loss levels in place helps protect against any unexpected reversals.

Given the stability of PepsiCo’s broader trend, short-term fluctuations do not change the bigger picture. As long as prices remain comfortably above 116, the bullish case is intact. The reaction around 162.53 will be telling—whether price consolidates, pulls back, or pushes through will dictate the next moves for those holding positions. For now, maintaining a positive stance while monitoring these levels is the strategy we favour.

US stocks are expected to open higher, with futures indicating gains of 207 points for the Dow industrial average, 27 points for the S&P index, and 92 points for the NASDAQ.

Starbucks plans to lay off 1,100 corporate employees globally as part of an effort to streamline operations. The layoffs will not affect baristas or warehouse staff, while shares rose 0.49% in premarket trading.

Microsoft has refuted claims of scaling back its U.S. data centre leases, with shares up 0.32%. Additionally, Apple announced a $500 billion U.S. investment over four years, though its shares fell 0.64%.

Nvidia is set to report earnings, with expected EPS of $0.84 and revenues of $38.08 billion, resulting in a 1.76% rise in shares. AMD is also exploring the sale of its data centre business, with shares up 0.73%.

Last week, the Dow industrial average fell by 2.51%, the S&P index by 1.66%, and the NASDAQ index by 2.51%, marking their worst performances since late 2024 and early 2024. The Russell 2000 declined by 3.71%, its weakest week since December 2022.

The upward momentum in futures trading suggests a rebound following last week’s downturn. A 207-point rise in the Dow industrial average, alongside gains of 27 points for the S&P index and 92 points for the NASDAQ, indicates a shift in sentiment. These movements highlight renewed confidence after widespread losses in the prior sessions.

Howard’s company is making workforce adjustments, cutting 1,100 corporate roles. Retail workers and warehouse employees remain unaffected, focusing the redundancies on administrative divisions. A 0.49% gain in premarket trading suggests the market views the restructuring as a step towards efficiency rather than a sign of distress. The impact of these changes on long-term growth will depend on how operational streamlining translates into cost savings and productivity improvements.

Satya’s team has denied speculation that it is scaling back data centre leases in the United States. A 0.32% rise in shares suggests the market is unfazed by these reports. Meanwhile, Tim’s company has revealed a $500 billion investment plan spread over four years. Despite the announcement, shares dipped 0.64% as investors likely weighed the balance between long-term strategy and immediate financial impact. Large capital commitments often prompt scrutiny over expected returns.

All eyes are on Jensen’s firm ahead of its latest earnings report. Expectations are set at $0.84 per share, with projected revenues of $38.08 billion. The anticipation has already pushed shares up by 1.76%. The outcome of this report could reinforce confidence in semiconductor demand or raise questions about sustained growth. At the same time, Lisa’s company is exploring the possibility of offloading its data centre business. A 0.73% gain in shares suggests a positive reaction, possibly due to investor confidence that refocusing the company’s portfolio could improve profitability.

The market’s recent pullback was pronounced. The Dow, the S&P, and the NASDAQ all saw declines exceeding 2.5%, their weakest showings since late last year and early this year. The Russell 2000 suffered a greater hit, dropping by 3.71%, its worst week in more than a year. These figures reflect widespread selling pressure, prompting keen attention to whether the fresh momentum in futures marks the start of a sustained recovery or merely a short-lived bounce.

BYD Company Limited, based in Shenzhen, China, transitioned from a battery manufacturer to the leading global producer of plug-in electric vehicles by 2022, with over 3 million new energy vehicles sold by 2023. The stock recently reached an all-time high, indicating growth within wave III of the Elliott Wave pattern.

The monthly Elliott Wave chart shows that after a rally from an all-time low, the stock progressed through five waves, peaking at 333 and pulling back to 161.7. Currently, it is expected to continue upward while maintaining support at the 161.7 low.

The daily Elliott Wave chart displays further positive movement in wave III after a pullback at 161.7. Anticipation remains for additional highs to complete wave (3), followed by expected corrections within the cycle.

BYD has transformed dramatically over the years, moving far beyond its original focus on batteries. Today, it stands as the world’s top producer of plug-in cars, having surpassed 3 million in cumulative sales by last year. The numbers speak for themselves, and so does the stock price, which climbed to its highest level on record.

A look at the monthly Elliott Wave structure tells us that this isn’t random movement. Instead, it’s part of a longer-term pattern—one that has already completed five waves, reaching a peak of 333 before a pullback brought it down to 161.7. What matters here is that 161.7 has held as a solid base, which suggests the uptrend remains intact. If this support continues to hold, the share price is expected to press higher as it moves through the later stages of wave III.

Shifting to the daily timeframe, we can see movement that reinforces this perspective. There was a necessary correction back to 161.7, but prices have since resumed their upward trajectory within wave III. Further gains are likely in order to finish wave (3), though traders should remain aware that even within a broader rally, temporary declines are normal. Pullbacks will come, corrections will occur, but as long as the structure remains in place, these should be viewed as part of the existing trend rather than a reversal.

For traders involved in derivatives, this setup offers both opportunities and risks. Momentum can provide openings for leveraged trades, but it also means greater swings that require careful positioning. We should keep an eye on short-term moves without losing sight of the bigger structure. While optimism surrounding BYD is understandable, disciplined execution will determine who benefits most from the unfolding waves.

The USDCAD traded within an 84-pip range last week, exhibiting volatile price movements. The pair initially struggled against the 200-hour moving average at 1.4210 after surpassing the 100-hour moving average at 1.4200, indicating indecision.

Today, USDCAD opened above the moving averages, briefly dipped below during the Asian session, and has since rebounded. Momentum remains weak, with traders looking for a definitive movement in either direction.

Key short-term support lies at 1.4200, the 100-hour moving average. A break above last week’s highs at 1.4235–1.4246 would enhance bullish momentum, while a drop below 1.4200 could direct attention towards lower support levels, including last week’s low at 1.4165.

Support levels include 1.4200, 1.4165, 1.4150, and the rising 100-day moving average at 1.4133. Resistance levels are positioned at 1.4235–1.4246 and 1.4260–1.4269, marking critical breakout points.

Given the way USDCAD moved last week, there is an apparent struggle between buyers and sellers. The price action shows hesitation, particularly around key moving averages. While the pair managed to push higher, it has not sustained bullish momentum for long, highlighting uncertainty.

Today’s early weakness during the Asian session was short-lived, but momentum remains underwhelming. The reluctance to drive decisively in one direction suggests that traders are waiting for a larger catalyst. The 100-hour moving average at 1.4200 is now an immediate support level. If the price slips below this mark with conviction, further declines become more probable. Levels at 1.4165 and 1.4150 line up as potential retracement points, and a deeper move might bring the rising 100-day moving average at 1.4133 into play.

On the upside, passing last week’s highs in the 1.4235–1.4246 range could reinforce a push higher. Clearing this zone with continued buying pressure may open the door to the next resistance area, around 1.4260–1.4269. This remains an area to watch, as previous reactions suggest it could attract selling interest again.

In the current environment, it is essential to acknowledge that price action is not fully committing either way. While the support and resistance levels provide a framework, waiting for confirmation before reacting is safer than making assumptions. Watching for a stronger directional move will offer better opportunities, rather than chasing minor fluctuations.

For those focused on shorter moves, maintaining awareness of the moving averages and reaction levels is wise. Hesitation around key technical markers often means that sudden bursts of momentum can appear when one side loses control. Until then, patience could be the best approach as price remains stuck in a tight range.

The US Dollar (USD) is projected to trade within a range of 7.2350 to 7.2650 against the Chinese Yuan (CNH). For the USD to continue its decline, it needs to break and remain beneath the 7.2300 mark.

In the short term, recent trading shows the USD fluctuated between 7.2339 and 7.2596, closing at 7.2540. A sustained range around 7.2350 to 7.2650 is anticipated.

Longer-term perspectives maintain that while a decline is expected, the USD must drop below 7.2300. Should it breach 7.2800, this would suggest a reversal in the current trend.

At present, the dollar is holding firm within a narrow range against the yuan, showing no clear breakout in either direction. For traders watching price movements closely, the key level to monitor remains 7.2300. If the dollar slips below this, it opens the door for further losses. However, if it remains above, the current pattern of stability continues.

In the past few sessions, the dollar found support around 7.2339 while struggling to move beyond 7.2596. The closing price at 7.2540 signals that, for now, resistance is strong enough to hold off further gains. Unless a definitive push beyond 7.2650 happens, we should anticipate more sideways movement.

In the longer term, expectations lean towards a weaker dollar, but caution is warranted. A slip below 7.2300 would serve as confirmation that this outlook is playing out. On the other hand, if the dollar climbs past 7.2800, those anticipating further declines would need to reassess. Such a move would indicate that downward pressure is weakening, potentially shifting momentum in the other direction.

For those involved in derivatives, these levels provide essential guidance. Breakouts from the established range could alter positioning, and remaining aware of these thresholds allows for more informed trade decisions. Being reactive to movements beyond these points, rather than preempting them, reduces risk in an unpredictable environment.

February is currently quiet, contrasting with recent volatility. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey at 10 am ET is the only noteworthy economic indicator scheduled for today.

S&P 500 futures have increased by 31 points, or 0.5%, following last Friday’s declines. A weekend note from TD Cowen mentioned a slowdown in AI spending, yet the market appears unaffected.

Market sentiment will be a focus this week, particularly with Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday and Vistra’s on Thursday.

This calm start to February stands in stark contrast to the turbulence seen at the end of January. With little economic data to digest, attention is centred on broader trends influencing risk appetite. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey is an isolated data point today, though its impact is generally confined to regional economic conditions rather than driving widespread sentiment shifts.

Futures on the S&P 500 have rebounded after last week’s pullback, suggesting that traders are willing to take on risk ahead of upcoming earnings reports. The mention of weaker AI spending from TD Cowen may have raised concerns, but equity markets have not reacted negatively. This suggests that either expectations were already leaning in that direction or that strong earnings elsewhere are providing a counterbalance.

This week, Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday will act as a test of the AI-driven enthusiasm that has fuelled the recent rally. Jensen’s company has been at the centre of equity strength, and any deviation from expected revenue or forward guidance could have wide-reaching effects. A miss could prompt sharp repositioning, particularly given the weight the stock holds in major indices. On Thursday, Jim’s company will release earnings as well, providing insights into another important sector.

Outside of corporate results, traders should pay attention to bond yields and shifts in interest rate expectations. While equity markets have taken last week’s weakness in stride, sudden changes in rate forecasts could alter positioning quickly. Federal Reserve officials will also be speaking throughout the week, and any deviation from the current market view on rate cuts will need to be accounted for in positioning.

Volatility in currencies and commodities may also provide clues on which sectors could see the most movement in the near term. A stable dollar would support the view that risk sentiment is intact, while any sharp fluctuations would likely reveal underlying nervousness. With few scheduled economic reports in the immediate sessions, sentiment is more likely to be influenced by positioning and expectations rather than abrupt fundamental shifts.

EUR/GBP remains stable around the 0.8300 level, with the UK macro calendar showing no major events for the upcoming week.

In February, the UK preliminary PMIs displayed weakness, with the composite at 50.5, services at 51.1, and manufacturing at 46.4. January experienced the steepest drop in private sector wage growth since 2020 due to weak demand.

Elevated price pressures are driven by high wage growth alongside an anticipated rise in national insurance contributions for employers. The UK economy shows signs of stagnation, and attention is drawn to upcoming communications from Bank of England speakers.

The quiet UK macro calendar means that the next moves in EUR/GBP will likely depend on external factors or unexpected shifts in sentiment. With no immediate economic data releases to direct momentum, the pair may continue to hover around the 0.8300 mark unless fresh catalysts emerge.

The UK’s latest preliminary PMIs painted a picture of weakening business activity. The composite index barely holds above contraction territory at 50.5. While services managed to stay in expansion at 51.1, manufacturing remains in trouble, slipping further to 46.4. These figures suggest that demand is struggling to gain traction, keeping economic activity subdued.

Pay growth has been weakening, particularly in the private sector, where January saw the sharpest year-on-year decline since 2020. This points to businesses feeling the strain and holding back on wages in response to weaker demand. Yet, inflationary pressures remain, with elevated wages and an upcoming increase in employer national insurance contributions expected to keep costs high.

The UK economy has little forward momentum. Growth appears fragile, and concerns linger around whether conditions could deteriorate further. All eyes now turn to the Bank of England, as policymakers will need to assess stagnant business activity, persistent inflationary risks, and weakening earnings.

For those navigating the derivative markets, attention should remain fixed on central bank remarks. Any shift in messaging from officials like Andrew or Huw could steer expectations on interest rates, influencing the next move for GBP-related assets. Without clear signs of recovery, markets will be sensitive to any adjustments in tone from the Bank’s speakers.

With limited UK-specific developments on the horizon, external factors—such as shifts in risk appetite or changes in eurozone data—could play a bigger role in driving short-term fluctuations. A cautious stance may be warranted, especially with market participants attempting to gauge whether the current stagnation turns into something more prolonged.