USD/CAD slipped toward 1.3690 after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs, boosting uncertainty. Weak US growth and mixed inflation cloud the outlook, while Canada’s steady data hints at volatility and downside. – vtmarketsmy.com
Gold rebounded near $5,030 as US-Iran tensions and sticky inflation boosted safe-haven demand. Weak GDP adds support. Traders target a 10–15 day catalyst with short-dated calls, and spreads. – vtmarketsmy.com
US new home sales climbed to 758,000 in November, hinting at a stronger economy. Solid housing, hot CPI, and fading rate-cut odds bolster housing plays, favor Fed-on-hold and volatility options. – vtmarketsmy.com
US new home sales beat forecasts at 745,000, signaling resilient demand. With core CPI sticky at 3.7%, March rate-cut odds slid below 30%, sparking higher-for-longer trades and volatility hedges. – vtmarketsmy.com
Consumer expectations hit 56.6 in February, exactly as forecast—no market shock. But the gloomy reading, weak retail sales, and sticky inflation hint Fed rate cuts, range trading, and retail downside risk. – vtmarketsmy.com
Michigan’s February 1-year inflation expectation dipped to 3.4% vs 3.5%, extending disinflation. Markets now boost July rate-cut odds, favoring bonds, growth stocks, and a weaker dollar. – vtmarketsmy.com
Michigan’s 5-year inflation expectation slipped to 3.3% vs 3.4%, easing inflation fears. Markets now bet on Fed cuts by July, lifting stocks, lowering VIX, and pressuring the dollar. – vtmarketsmy.com
Consumer sentiment fell to 56.6, missing forecasts—an early red flag. Expect weaker spending, more volatility, and potentially a cautious Fed. Consider VIX calls, Treasury futures, and protective index puts. – vtmarketsmy.com
US business growth cooled in February: Composite PMI fell to 52.3 as manufacturing and services softened. Weaker demand, high prices, and weather raise volatility, boost rate-cut odds, and favor defensive, bond, and euro trades. – vtmarketsmy.com
Canada’s 2025 export “diversification” was mostly gold-fueled. Strip out gold, and non‑US growth looks weak, leaving Canada exposed as the USMCA review nears and tariff risks threaten the loonie. – vtmarketsmy.com
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