RBA flags data-driven moves as markets eye another hike; key Aussie wages/jobs and US Fed minutes loom. AUD/USD struggles amid strong USD, weaker China demand, softer iron ore, tight support/resistance range. – vtmarketsmy.com
Australia faces a policy clash: the RBA signals more rate hikes as forecasts strengthen, while a 5% deposit homebuyer scheme fuels prices. Inflation stays high, markets reprice, and rates volatility rises. – vtmarketsmy.com
EUR/USD dips as US-Iran tensions boost the dollar and strong US data cuts Fed-cut bets. Softer Eurozone indicators widen divergence. Watch FOMC minutes; bearish options target below 1.1800. – vtmarketsmy.com
New Zealand PPI barely rose, shocking forecasts and signaling fast-fading inflation. RBNZ hikes may be biting, shifting focus to earlier rate cuts, weaker NZD, and potential opportunities in puts and futures. – vtmarketsmy.com
Surprise NZ data: PPI inputs fell 0.5% in Q4 vs a 0.5% rise expected, flashing deflation. That boosts rate-cut odds, pressures NZD, and may spark volatility ahead of RBNZ. – vtmarketsmy.com
US growth is cooling: TD Securities sees Q4 2025 GDP at 2.3% as consumers, government spending, and exports weaken, while AI investment holds up. Volatility seems underpriced. – vtmarketsmy.com
Japan’s election shock boosts fiscal stimulus: Takaichi’s LDP landslide enables big budget moves, including a ¥5T food VAT cut, spiking USD/JPY volatility, likely weakening yen short-term—yet long-term fears may be overdone. – vtmarketsmy.com
Jobs and inflation data nudged FX markets: US hiring improved, Canada CPI cooled, keeping DXY firm. Pound and yen weakened, gold stayed capped. Now DXY near 104.5 dominates. – vtmarketsmy.com
Gold plunged 3% as a stronger dollar, higher yields, and progress in US–Iran talks hit safe-haven demand. Fed cut bets fell, volatility jumped, and traders eye $4,800 support. – vtmarketsmy.com
Think the Fed will cut less? BNY’s Velis expects three cuts by 2026, citing narrow healthcare-driven job gains and easing inflation—creating a trade setup via SOFR, swaps, and long vol. – vtmarketsmy.com
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