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holdings\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u652f\u6301\u8bc1\u5238MBS\uff09\u538b\u4f4e\u4e86\u8be5\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08yields\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9700\u8981\u591a\u5e74\u624d\u80fd\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6309\u63ed\u503a\u5238\uff08mortgage bond holdings\uff0c\u591a\u6307MBS\uff09\u81ea\u7136\u51cf\u5c11\uff08run off\uff0c\u6307\u4e0d\u518d\u518d\u6295\u8d44\u5230\u671f\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u8ba9\u6301\u4ed3\u968f\u5230\u671f\/\u507f\u4ed8\u9010\u6b65\u7f29\u5c0f\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ba1\u7406\u51c6\u5907\u91d1\u800c\u8d2d\u4e70\u77ed\u671f\u56fd\u503a\uff08Treasury bill buying\uff0cT-bills\u4e3a\u671f\u9650\u5f88\u77ed\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\uff09\u89c4\u6a21\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\n\n\u65bd\u5bc6\u5fb7\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u804c\u8d23\u76ee\u6807\uff08mandate\uff0c\u6307\u6cd5\u5b9a\u76ee\u6807\uff1a\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7269\u4ef7\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0e\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u4e1a\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u65b9\u9762\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u505a\u66f4\u591a\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u5904\u5728\u76f8\u5f53\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u5173\u6ce8\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u7275\u7740\u8d70\u3002\n\n\u65bd\u5bc6\u5fb7\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u95ee\u9898\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4ed6\u8fd8\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u53ef\u5982\u679c\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\u88ab\u786e\u8ba4\uff08confirmed\uff0c\u6307\u7ecf\u7f8e\u56fd\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u6279\u51c6\u4efb\u547d\uff09\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3002\n\n<h3>\u66f4\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u542b\u4e49<\/h3>\n\u901a\u80c0\u76ee\u6807\u8fd9\u8fb9\u4ecd\u6709\u5de5\u4f5c\u8981\u505a\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5e94\u8ba4\u771f\u5bf9\u5f85\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u76841\u6708CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u5c45\u6c11\u6d88\u8d39\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u4e3a2.9%\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u201c\u9ecf\u201d\uff08sticky\uff0c\u6307\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u5feb\u901f\u56de\u843d\uff09\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u51b2\u54112%\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6bb5\u4f9d\u7136\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff08options 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longer\uff09\u7684\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f55\u65f6\u964d\u606f\u5e76\u4e0d\u6e05\u6670\u3002\n\n\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u76f8\u5f53\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u8ba9\u592e\u884c\u6709\u7406\u7531\u7ef4\u6301\u5f53\u524d\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u5931\u4e1a\u73874.1%\uff0c\u4e0a\u6708\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u4e1a19\u4e07\uff08payrolls\uff0c\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u7edf\u8ba1\u53e3\u5f84\uff09\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u538b\u529b\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u4e0d\u5e94\u56e0\u4e3a\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u8f7b\u5fae\u8f6c\u5f31\u5c31\u62bc\u6ce8\u964d\u606f\u3002\n\n\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56de\u5230\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e89\u8bba\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u51c6\u5907\u91d1\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6301\u4ed3\u4ecd\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e6\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6309\u63ed\u503a\u5238\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u7f29\u8868\u9700\u8981\u591a\u5e74\u3002\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5f62\u6210\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u7684\u957f\u671f\u201c\u6536\u7d27\u201d\u6548\u5e94\uff08tightening effect\uff0c\u6307\u91d1\u878d\u6761\u4ef6\u53d8\u7d27\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u7ee7\u7eed\u5bf9\u201c\u4e45\u671f\u66f4\u957f\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u201d\uff08long-duration assets\uff0c\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u654f\u611f\u3001\u6301\u6709\u671f\u66f4\u957f\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5982\u957f\u671f\u503a\u5238\u4e0e\u90e8\u5206\u6210\u957f\u80a1\u4f30\u503c\uff09\u5e26\u6765\u8f7b\u5fae\u538b\u5236\u3002\n\n\u8981\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u4f1a\u5173\u6ce8\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u5360\u636e\u5168\u90e8\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7b56\u7565\uff08volatility strategies\uff0c\u4ee5\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u8c61\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e70\u5165VIX\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08VIX call 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