{"id":30573,"date":"2026-03-05T12:36:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T12:36:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/bny%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%b8%88geoff-yu%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e6%ac%a7%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%a9%e7%84%b6%e6%b0%94%e6%9c%9f%e8%b4%a7%e4%bb%b7%e6%a0%bc%e5%a4%a7%e5%b9%85%e9%87%8d%e6%96%b0%e5%ae%9a%e4%bb%b7\/"},"modified":"2026-03-05T12:36:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T12:36:54","slug":"bny%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%b8%88geoff-yu%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e6%ac%a7%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%a9%e7%84%b6%e6%b0%94%e6%9c%9f%e8%b4%a7%e4%bb%b7%e6%a0%bc%e5%a4%a7%e5%b9%85%e9%87%8d%e6%96%b0%e5%ae%9a%e4%bb%b7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/bny%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%b8%88geoff-yu%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e6%ac%a7%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%a9%e7%84%b6%e6%b0%94%e6%9c%9f%e8%b4%a7%e4%bb%b7%e6%a0%bc%e5%a4%a7%e5%b9%85%e9%87%8d%e6%96%b0%e5%ae%9a%e4%bb%b7\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY\u7b56\u7565\u5e08Geoff Yu\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u671f\u8d27\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u5df2\u8d85\u51fa\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u8fd1\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4ee4\u653f\u7b56\u8def\u5f84\u9762\u4e34\u6311\u6218"},"content":{"rendered":"\u7ebd\u7ea6\u6885\u9686\u94f6\u884c\uff08BNY\uff09\u7b56\u7565\u5e08 Geoff Yu \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u671f\u8d27\u4ef7\u683c\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u6c34\u5e73\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u5de5\u4f5c\u4eba\u5458\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u3002Yu \u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u628a\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u901a\u80c0\u63a8\u9ad8\u5230\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u201c\u57fa\u7ebf\u60c5\u666f\u201d\uff08baseline\uff0c\u6307\u592e\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u91cc\u7528\u4e8e\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7684\u9ed8\u8ba4\u8def\u5f84\uff09\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff1b\u5373\u4f7f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u52a0\u606f\uff08rate rises\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\n\n\u6b64\u524d\uff0c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u671f\u8d27\u201c\u66f2\u7ebf\u201d\uff08futures curve\uff0c\u6307\u4e0d\u540c\u5230\u671f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u671f\u8d27\u4ef7\u683c\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5e8f\u5217\uff09\u53ea\u6697\u793a\u672a\u6765\u4e94\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u4ef7\u683c\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u7684\u57fa\u7ebf\u60c5\u666f\u5047\u8bbe\u4eca\u5e74\u6c14\u4ef7\u66f4\u4f4e\u3002\u5230\u5468\u4e09\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53c2\u8003\u7684\u671f\u8d27\u66f2\u7ebf\u5df2\u53d8\u4e3a\uff1a\u5e73\u5747\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\u6bd4\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u9ad8\u7ea645%\uff0c\u6bd4\u6700\u521d\u5047\u8bbe\u9ad8\u63a5\u8fd160%\u3002\n\n<h3>Gas Prices Now Far Above Baseline<\/h3>\nYu \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ef7\u683c\u5904\u5728\u201c\u9ad890\u5206\u4f4d\u201d\uff08high-90th percentiles\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u9760\u8fd1\u5386\u53f2\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u5c0f\u6bb5\u533a\u95f4\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6b27\u5143\u533a HICP\uff08Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u7edf\u4e00\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u5c06\u6bd4\u57fa\u7ebf\u9ad8\u7ea6100bp\uff08basis points\uff0c\u57fa\u70b9\uff1b100bp=1\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u8ba1\u5165\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u65e9\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u592e\u884c\u3002\n\n\u4ed6\u8fd8\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u8d44\u4ea7\u53ef\u80fd\u627f\u538b\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\uff08real rates\uff0c\u540d\u4e49\u5229\u7387\u51cf\u53bb\u901a\u80c0\u540e\u7684\u201c\u771f\u5b9e\u5229\u7387\u201d\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u4f4e\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u79f0\u5176\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5de5\u5177\u751f\u6210\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u7f16\u8f91\u5ba1\u6838\u3002\n\n\u6b27\u6d32\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u671f\u8d27\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u91cd\u4f30\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u660e\u663e\u6539\u53d8\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u73af\u5883\u3002\u8377\u5170 TTF \u57fa\u51c6\uff08Dutch TTF benchmark\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u4ea4\u6613\u53c2\u8003\u4ef7\uff09\u5df2\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u5146\u74e6\u65f6\uff08MWh\uff0c\u8ba1\u91cf\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u5355\u4f4d\uff0945\u6b27\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6bd4\u592e\u884c\u8fd1\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u9ad860%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6da8\u5e45\u8fdc\u8d85\u6b64\u524d\u201c\u6e29\u548c\u4e0a\u5347\u201d\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u8ba9\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u66f4\u96be\u5904\u7406\u3002\n\n\u5f53\u524d\u671f\u8d27\u66f2\u7ebf\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u533a HICP \u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u57fa\u7ebf\u9ad8\u7ea61\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u504f\u79bb\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5c0f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f2026\u5e742\u6708\u7684\u201c\u5feb\u901f\u901a\u80c0\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u201d\uff08flash inflation estimate\uff0c\u63d0\u524d\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\uff09\u5df2\u7ecf\u663e\u793a\u901a\u80c0\u9ecf\u6027\u8f83\u5f3a\uff0c\u8fbe\u52302.4%\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u56de\u52302%\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\uff08energy component\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u7bee\u5b50\u4e2d\u7531\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff09\u518d\u6b21\u6210\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u98ce\u9669\u3002\n\n<h3>Markets Shift Toward Hikes<\/h3>\n\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u8fc5\u901f\u5f00\u59cb\u8ba1\u5165\u4eca\u5e74\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u660e\u663e\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u6b64\u524d\u9884\u671f\u5f62\u6210\u53cd\u8f6c\u3002\u8fd9\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u201c\u6ede\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u201d\uff08stagflation risk\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u53d8\u6162\u4f46\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff09\uff1a\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8feb\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u65f6\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\uff08tighten policy\uff0c\u6536\u7d27\u8d27\u5e01\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u5bbd\u677e\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u672c\u5730\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u6362\uff08interest rate swaps\uff0c\u4e00\u79cd\u7528\u6765\u5bf9\u51b2\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\u5229\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u5df2\u7ecf\u4f53\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u7ecf\u62b9\u53bb\u4e86\u5e74\u4e2d\u964d\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\n\n\u8fd9\u4e0e2025\u5e74\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff1a\u5f53\u65f6\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f7f\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u8d70\u5411\u5bbd\u677e\uff08monetary easing\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u6216\u589e\u52a0\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff09\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u4fdd\u62a4\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u800c\u51fa\u73b0\u201c\u8d22\u653f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u53cd\u5e94\u201d\uff08fiscal overreaction\uff0c\u7528\u66f4\u591a\u8865\u8d34\u6216\u652f\u51fa\u538b\u4f4e\u80fd\u6e90\u8d26\u5355\u7b49\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba9\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u7ee7\u7eed\u8d70\u4f4e\u3002\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u70b9\u51fb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/trade-now\/\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>\u521b\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5b9e\u8d26\u6237 <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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