{"id":30683,"date":"2026-03-06T12:50:35","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T12:50:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e4%b8%b9%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e5%91%98%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a12%e6%9c%88%e5%b0%b1%e4%b8%9a%e5%a2%9e%e9%95%bf%e6%94%be%e7%bc%93%e3%80%81%e5%a4%b1%e4%b8%9a%e7%8e%87%e7%bb%b4\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T12:50:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T12:50:35","slug":"%e4%b8%b9%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e5%91%98%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a12%e6%9c%88%e5%b0%b1%e4%b8%9a%e5%a2%9e%e9%95%bf%e6%94%be%e7%bc%93%e3%80%81%e5%a4%b1%e4%b8%9a%e7%8e%87%e7%bb%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e4%b8%b9%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e5%91%98%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a12%e6%9c%88%e5%b0%b1%e4%b8%9a%e5%a2%9e%e9%95%bf%e6%94%be%e7%bc%93%e3%80%81%e5%a4%b1%e4%b8%9a%e7%8e%87%e7%bb%b4\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e39\u65af\u514b\u94f6\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u9884\u8ba12\u6708\u5c31\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u57284.3%\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5173\u6ce8\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6210\u672c\u52a8\u6001"},"content":{"rendered":"\u4e39\u65af\u514b\u94f6\u884c\uff08Danske Bank\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u5173\u952e\u7684\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5e03\u662f2\u6708\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\uff08Jobs Report\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u52bf\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\uff09\u3002\u8be5\u884c\u9884\u8ba1\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\uff08Nonfarm Payrolls\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0NFP\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u975e\u519c\u884c\u4e1a\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\uff09\u5c06\u4ece1\u6708\u768413\u4e07\u4eba\u653e\u7f13\u81f37\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\uff08Unemployment Rate\uff1a\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4e2d\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff09\u7ef4\u6301\u57284.3%\u3002\n\n\u8be5\u884c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u591a\u9879\u9ad8\u9891\u6307\u6807\uff08High-frequency indicators\uff1a\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u5b9e\u65f6\u3001\u66f4\u65b0\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff09\u663e\u793a2\u6708\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6761\u4ef6\u66f4\u7a33\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u521d\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u91d1\u4eba\u6570\uff08Jobless Claims\uff1a\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u7684\u4eba\u6570\uff09\u3001ADP\u6bcf\u5468\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u5c31\u4e1a\u4f30\u7b97\uff08ADP weekly private sector estimate\uff1a\u5bf9\u79c1\u8425\u4f01\u4e1a\u5c31\u4e1a\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\uff09\u3001\u4ee5\u53caIndeed Hiring Lab\u6bcf\u65e5\u804c\u4f4d\u53d1\u5e03\uff08Daily job postings\uff1a\u6bcf\u5929\u65b0\u589e\u62db\u8058\u5e7f\u544a\u6570\u91cf\uff09\u3002\u622a\u81f32\u670828\u65e5\u5f53\u5468\uff0c\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u9886\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u4eba\u6570\uff08Weekly initial claims\uff1a\u6bcf\u5468\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u8bf7\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u4eba\u6570\uff09\u4e3a21.3\u4e07\u4eba\u3002\n\n<h3>High Frequency Labor Signals<\/h3>\n\u6301\u7eed\u7533\u9886\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u4eba\u6570\uff08Continuing claims\uff1a\u6301\u7eed\u9886\u53d6\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u7684\u4eba\u6570\uff09\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0a\u5347\u30022\u6708Challenger\u62a5\u544a\uff08Challenger report\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1\u4f01\u4e1a\u88c1\u5458\u4e0e\u62db\u8058\u516c\u544a\u7684\u62a5\u544a\uff09\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7ecf\u5b63\u8282\u8c03\u6574\uff08Seasonally adjusted\uff1a\u5254\u9664\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u7b49\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u540e\uff0c\u88c1\u5458\u516c\u544a\u4ece1\u6708\u768410.8\u4e07\u4eba\u964d\u81f34.83\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u62db\u8058\u516c\u544a\u4ecd\u504f\u4f4e\u8ff7\u3002\n\n\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\uff08Productivity\uff1a\u6bcf\u5355\u4f4d\u6295\u5165\u4ea7\u51fa\u7684\u6548\u7387\uff09\u521d\u503c\uff08Flash\uff1a\u521d\u6b65\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff09\u6309\u5e74\u5316\u5b63\u6bd4\uff08q\/q annualised\uff1a\u628a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u73af\u6bd4\u589e\u901f\u6362\u7b97\u6210\u5e74\u5316\u901f\u5ea6\uff09\u653e\u7f13\u81f32.8%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u76845.2%\uff0c\u540c\u65f6GDP\u8bfb\u6570\u66f4\u5f31\u3002\u5355\u4f4d\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6210\u672c\uff08Unit labour cost\uff1a\u6bcf\u5355\u4f4d\u4ea7\u51fa\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u6210\u672c\uff09\u6309\u5e74\u5316\u5b63\u6bd4\u589e\u901f\u5347\u81f32.8%\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u7684-1.8%\u3002\n\n\u8be5\u884c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u82e5\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u66f4\u5f3a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08US bond yields\uff1a\u503a\u5238\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u4e0e\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u6362\u5229\u7387\uff08Swap rates\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u6362\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u5229\u7387\uff09\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230VIX\u6307\u6570\uff08VIX\uff1a\u53cd\u6620\u7f8e\u80a1\u9884\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u3001MOVE\u6307\u6570\uff08MOVE\uff1a\u53cd\u6620\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u4fe1\u7528\u5229\u5dee\uff08Credit spreads\uff1a\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\uff0c\u8d8a\u5927\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u573a\u8d8a\u62c5\u5fc3\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff09\u5982ITRAX\uff08iTraxx\uff1a\u4fe1\u7528\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6389\u671f\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u4fe1\u7528\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u5fb7\u56fd\u4e24\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503aASW\u5229\u5dee\uff08Schatz ASW-spread\uff1a\u5fb7\u56fd\u4e24\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u4e0e\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u6362\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5229\u5dee\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u89c2\u5bdf\u8d44\u91d1\u4e0e\u4fe1\u7528\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff09\u4ec5\u6e29\u548c\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\n\n\u56de\u770b2025\u5e74\u540c\u671f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5171\u8bc6\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u5bf92\u6708\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ea6\u4e3a7\u4e07\u4eba\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u6570\u636e\u660e\u663e\u66f4\u5f3a\uff0c\u4ee4\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5728\u5f53\u5e74\u5f88\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u627f\u53d7\u4e0a\u884c\u538b\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u6bb5\u5386\u53f2\u4e3a\u89e3\u8bfb\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u683c\u5c40\u63d0\u4f9b\u91cd\u8981\u80cc\u666f\u3002\n\n<h3>Derivative Positioning For Volatility<\/h3>\n\u73b0\u5728\uff0c2026\u5e742\u6708\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u4e1a\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u8868\u9762\u6570\u5b57\u589e\u52a027.5\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e5f\u610f\u5916\u5347\u81f33.9%\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u201c\u62db\u8058\u5f88\u5f3a\u3001\u5931\u4e1a\u5374\u4e0a\u5347\u201d\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u4ee4\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u96be\u5224\u65ad\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff08Federal Reserve\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\uff09\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08Derivative traders\uff1a\u4ea4\u6613\u671f\u8d27\u3001\u671f\u6743\u3001\u4e92\u6362\u7b49\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff09\u9700\u8981\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u6570\u636e\u51b2\u7a81\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u505a\u597d\u5e03\u5c40\u3002\n\n\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e2025\u5e74\u521d\u5f3a\u6570\u636e\u901a\u5e38\u76f4\u63a5\u63a8\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff0c\u5f53\u4e0b\u60c5\u51b5\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u3002MOVE\u6307\u6570\uff08\u503a\u5e02\u6ce2\u52a8\u6307\u6807\uff09\u5728\u7ea6105\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5df2\u628a\u5229\u7387\u65b9\u5411\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8ba1\u5165\u4ef7\u683c\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u201c\u65e0\u8bba\u5411\u4e0a\u6216\u5411\u4e0b\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u90fd\u80fd\u83b7\u5229\u201d\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u671f\u8d27\uff08Treasury futures\uff1a\u4ee5\u56fd\u503a\u4e3a\u6807\u7684\u7684\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u4e0a\u4e70\u5165\u8de8\u5f0f\u671f\u6743\uff08Straddle\uff1a\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u540c\u5230\u671f\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\u800c\u975e\u65b9\u5411\uff09\u3002\n\n\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8c28\u614e\u60c5\u7eea\u4e0d\u5982\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\u660e\u663e\u3002VIX\u6307\u6570\u76ee\u524d\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u7ea6\u572814\u7684\u201c\u677e\u61c8\u201d\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u6307\u6570\u4fdd\u62a4\u6027\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff08Protective put\uff1a\u4e70\u5165\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4fdd\u9669\uff09\u5728\u6807\u666e500\u7b49\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u76f8\u5bf9\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u4fe1\u53f7\u51b2\u7a81\uff0c\u4e70\u5165\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u201c\u4fdd\u9669\u201d\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u6f5c\u5728\u56de\u8c03\u66f4\u7a33\u5065\u3002\n\n\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u5173\u6ce8\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6210\u672c\u538b\u529b\uff08Labor cost pressures\uff1a\u5de5\u8d44\u7b49\u4eba\u5de5\u6210\u672c\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u63a8\u529b\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u57282025\u5e74\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u96be\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u5e73\u5747\u65f6\u85aa\uff08Average hourly earnings\uff1a\u8861\u91cf\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u4ecd\u4ee5\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u7f8e\u8054\u50a82%\u901a\u80c0\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\u3002\u8fd9\u652f\u6301\u5728\u201c\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u7ef4\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\u201d\uff08Higher for longer\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u957f\u671f\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff09\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\u7684\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u5e03\u5c40\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u6362\u4e2d\u652f\u4ed8\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\uff08Paying fixed in interest rate swaps\uff1a\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u652f\u4ed8\u3001\u6536\u53d6\u6d6e\u52a8\u5229\u7387\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u9884\u671f\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u6216\u4e0a\u884c\u65f6\u66f4\u6709\u5229\uff09\u3002\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u70b9\u51fb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/trade-now\/\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>\u521b\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5b9e\u8d26\u6237 <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content 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