{"id":31178,"date":"2026-03-12T21:51:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T21:51:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/ing-%e7%9a%84%e5%a5%88%e7%89%b9%e5%88%a9%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd-2-%e6%9c%88%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e5%8f%97%e6%8e%a7%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%86%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e5%86%b2%e5%87%bb%e5%8f%af\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T21:51:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T21:51:23","slug":"ing-%e7%9a%84%e5%a5%88%e7%89%b9%e5%88%a9%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd-2-%e6%9c%88%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e5%8f%97%e6%8e%a7%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%86%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e5%86%b2%e5%87%bb%e5%8f%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/ing-%e7%9a%84%e5%a5%88%e7%89%b9%e5%88%a9%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd-2-%e6%9c%88%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e5%8f%97%e6%8e%a7%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%86%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e5%86%b2%e5%87%bb%e5%8f%af\/","title":{"rendered":"ING \u7684\u5948\u7279\u5229\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd 2 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prices\uff09\u663e\u793a\u5173\u7a0e\uff08tariff\uff09\u6210\u672c\u8f6c\u5ac1\uff08pass-through\uff0c\u6307\u8fdb\u53e3\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u4f20\u5bfc\u5230\u7ec8\u7aef\u552e\u4ef7\uff09\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u6709\u9650\u3002\u6b64\u540e\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u62c5\u5fc3\u533a\u57df\u4f9b\u5e94\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u201c\u5361\u70b9\u201d\uff08bottlenecks\uff0c\u6307\u8fd0\u8f93\u6216\u4f9b\u7ed9\u73af\u8282\u5835\u585e\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u4f9b\u8d27\u4e0e\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\u3002\n\n\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4e0e\u6c7d\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93\u4e0e\u7269\u6d41\u6210\u672c\uff08logistics costs\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u673a\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\uff08air fares\uff09\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u628a\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u6307\u5305\u542b\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u603b\u6307\u6807\uff09\u63a8\u9ad8\u52303%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u53ef\u80fd\u4e00\u76f4\u9ad8\u4e8e3%\u76f4\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u5e76\u57282026\u5e74\u5c3e\u6bb5\u524d\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\n\n<h3>Inflation Outlook<\/h3>\n\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u901a\u80c0\u8981\u56de\u52302%\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u7b49\u52302027\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u3002\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7ef4\u6301\u66f4\u4e45\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4e0e\u85aa\u8d44\u589e\u901f\uff08wage growth\uff09\u8f6c\u5f31\u53ef\u80fd\u538b\u4f4e\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u4e45\u4e86\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u9010\u6b65\u964d\u6e29\u3002\n\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u50a8\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\uff09\u521d\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5173\u6ce8\u8d70\u9ad8\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6307\u6807\u7ee7\u7eed\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u7a0d\u540e\u8003\u8651\u964d\u606f\uff08cutting interest rates\uff09\u4e00\u5230\u4e24\u6b21\u3002\n\n2\u6708\u901a\u80c0\u62a5\u544a\u5728\u4f0a\u6717\u5c40\u52bf\u5347\u7ea7\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5173\u6ce8\u70b9\u5df2\u660e\u663e\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u628a\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u63a8\u56de3%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4e0d\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u6b63\u597d\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u539f\u672c\u5224\u65ad2025\u5e74\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u7a33\u4e4b\u9645\u3002\n\n\u8fd9\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u63a8\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u7ecf\u53cd\u6620\u3002WTI\u539f\u6cb9\uff08West Texas Intermediate\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8d28\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u51c6\uff09\u4ece2\u6708\u521d\u6bcf\u6876\u7ea680\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u81f395\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e3a2024\u5e74\u672b\u4ee5\u6765\u5c11\u89c1\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6839\u636eAAA\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c7d\u8f66\u534f\u4f1a\uff09\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u5168\u7f8e\u5e73\u5747\u6c7d\u6cb9\u4ef7\u6b63\u5feb\u901f\u9760\u8fd1\u6bcf\u52a0\u4ed13.80\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u6324\u538b\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u53ef\u652f\u914d\u652f\u51fa\u3002\n\n<h3>Market Implications<\/h3>\n\u5728\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\uff08derivatives market\uff0c\u6307\u671f\u8d27\u3001\u671f\u6743\u7b49\u4ee5\u6807\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77ed\u671f\u6700\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u524d\u7aef\uff08front end of the yield curve\uff0c\u6307\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\/\u77ed\u5929\u671f\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff09\u3002\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff08interest rate futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u6807\u7684\u7684\u671f\u8d27\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u4f4e\u201c\u590f\u5b63\u964d\u606f\u201d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u8054\u50a8\u9996\u6b21\u884c\u52a8\u81f3\u5c11\u63a8\u8fdf\u5230\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u201c\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u66f4\u5e73\u201d\uff08flatter yield curve\uff0c\u6307\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u76f8\u5bf9\u957f\u671f\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u4e24\u8005\u5dee\u8ddd\u7f29\u5c0f\uff09\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u601d\u8def\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u6709\u5229\u3002\n\n\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u8d8a\u4e45\uff0c\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u5c31\u8d8a\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u85aa\u8d44\u589e\u901f\u5df2\u51fa\u73b0\u653e\u7f13\u8ff9\u8c61\u4e4b\u4e0b\u3002\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5f62\u6210\u66f4\u68d8\u624b\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\uff1a\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9700\u6c42\u8d70\u5f31\u3002\u201c\u9700\u6c42\u7834\u574f\u201d\uff08demand destruction\uff0c\u6307\u4ef7\u683c\u8fc7\u9ad8\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u51cf\u5c11\u8d2d\u4e70\u4e0e\u4f7f\u7528\uff09\u4e00\u65e6\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u8f83\u540e\u9636\u6bb5\u538b\u4f4e\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u3002\n\n\u6574\u4f53CPI\uff08Consumer Price Index\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff09\u504f\u201c\u9e70\u201d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u6307\u653f\u7b56\u503e\u5411\u66f4\u7d27\u3001\u8f83\u53ef\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u6216\u5347\u606f\uff09\u4f46\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u504f\u201c\u9e3d\u201d\uff08dovish\uff0c\u6307\u503e\u5411\u5bbd\u677e\u3001\u8f83\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\uff09\u7684\u5206\u5316\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u7528SOFR\u671f\u8d27\uff08SOFR futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u62c5\u4fdd\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8d44\u5229\u7387SOFR\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff09\u671f\u6743\uff08options\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u7ea6\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u4ee5\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5165\u6216\u5356\u51fa\u6807\u7684\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff09\u6216VIX\uff08\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6570\u201d\uff09\u76f8\u5173\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5bf9\u51b2\uff08hedging\uff0c\u7528\u4ea4\u6613\u6765\u964d\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u4e0a\u4e0b\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\n\n2022\u5e74\u80fd\u6e90\u98d9\u6da8\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u503c\u5f97\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff1a\u5f53\u65f6\u6210\u672c\u5411\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u4f20\u5bfc\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u957f\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u8054\u50a8\u66f4\u5f3a\u786c\u5e94\u5bf9\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u6b21\u6838\u5fc3\u6307\u6807\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u4ecd\u4f1a\u62c5\u5fc3\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u201c\u56fa\u5316\u201d\uff08entrenched\uff0c\u6307\u957f\u671f\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3001\u96be\u4ee5\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u62bc\u6ce8\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u201c\u9e70\u6d3e\u201d\u6216\u201c\u9e3d\u6d3e\u201d\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u90fd\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 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