{"id":31403,"date":"2026-03-16T13:58:51","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T13:58:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/bbh%e7%9a%84elias-haddad%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e6%88%96%e5%b0%86%e5%8a%a0%e6%81%af25%e4%b8%aa%e5%9f%ba%e7%82%b9%e8%87%b34-10%ef%bc%8c%e8%80%8c%e6%9c%9f\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T13:58:51","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T13:58:51","slug":"bbh%e7%9a%84elias-haddad%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e6%88%96%e5%b0%86%e5%8a%a0%e6%81%af25%e4%b8%aa%e5%9f%ba%e7%82%b9%e8%87%b34-10%ef%bc%8c%e8%80%8c%e6%9c%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/bbh%e7%9a%84elias-haddad%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e6%be%b3%e6%b4%b2%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e6%88%96%e5%b0%86%e5%8a%a0%e6%81%af25%e4%b8%aa%e5%9f%ba%e7%82%b9%e8%87%b34-10%ef%bc%8c%e8%80%8c%e6%9c%9f\/","title":{"rendered":"BBH\u7684Elias Haddad\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u8054\u50a8\u6216\u5c06\u52a0\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u81f34.10%\uff0c\u800c\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u7565\u504f\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027"},"content":{"rendered":"\u5e03\u6717\u5144\u5f1f\u54c8\u91cc\u66fc\uff08Brown Brothers Harriman\uff09\u7684\u4f0a\u83b1\u4e9a\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u8fbe\u5fb7\uff08Elias Haddad\uff09\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\uff08RBA\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\uff09\u5c06\u628a\u5b98\u65b9\u73b0\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u76ee\u6807\uff08cash rate target\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u9694\u591c\u5229\u7387\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6807\uff09\u4e0a\u8c0325\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff08bps\uff0c\u57fa\u70b9\uff1b1\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9=0.01%\uff09\u81f34.10%\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u8be5\u51b3\u5b9a\u88ab\u5f62\u5bb9\u4e3a\u201c\u96be\u5206\u9ad8\u4e0b\u201d\uff0c\u73b0\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff08cash rate futures\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u4ea4\u6613\u672a\u6765\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u663e\u793a\u52a0\u606f\u6982\u7387\u7ea653%\u3002\n\n\u628a\u5229\u7387\u5347\u81f34.10%\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u666f\uff08base case\uff0c\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff09\u3002\u82e5RBA\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\uff08tightens policy\uff0c\u5373\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u504f\u7d27\u7684\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u538b\u901a\u80c0\uff09\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u6fb3\u5143\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97\u652f\u6491\u3002\u7406\u7531\u662f\u56fd\u5185\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\u3002\n\n<h3>Rba Decision Outlook<\/h3>\n\u62a5\u9053\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u51b2\u51fb\uff08energy shock\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u7a81\u7136\u5927\u6da8\u63a8\u9ad8\u6210\u672c\u4e0e\u7269\u4ef7\uff09\u771f\u6b63\u5f71\u54cd\u524d\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u6240\u6709\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u603b\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u5df2\u8fbe\u540c\u6bd43.8%\u3002\u636e\u79f0RBA\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u6a21\u578b\u663e\u793a\u4ea7\u51fa\u7f3a\u53e3\u4e3a\u6b63\uff08positive output gap\uff0c\u5373\u5b9e\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ea7\u51fa\u9ad8\u4e8e\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u504f\u5f3a\uff09\uff0c\u4e0e\u4ea7\u80fd\u7ea6\u675f\u66f4\u7d27\uff08tighter capacity constraints\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u3001\u8bbe\u5907\u4e0e\u4f9b\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u5403\u7d27\uff09\u6709\u5173\u3002\n\n\u6587\u7ae0\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u52a0\u606f\u81f34.10%\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u627f\u8ba4\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u201c\u96be\u5206\u9ad8\u4e0b\u201d\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u6765\u81ea\u73b0\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u663e\u793a\uff0cRBA\u52a0\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a53%\u3002\u8be5\u673a\u6784\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5c06\u4e3a\u6fb3\u5143\u63d0\u4f9b\u6240\u9700\u652f\u6491\u3002\n\n\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7c7b\u4f3c2025\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u662f\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u63a8\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u5b63\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u4f9d\u7136\u987d\u56fa\u5730\u5904\u4e8e\u540c\u6bd43.6%\uff0c\u660e\u663e\u9ad8\u4e8eRBA\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\u3002\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\uff08services\uff0c\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u533b\u7597\u3001\u79df\u91d1\u3001\u4fdd\u9669\u7b49\u975e\u5546\u54c1\u7c7b\u9879\u76ee\uff09\u7684\u6da8\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f7f\u592e\u884c\u518d\u6b21\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u7406\u7531\u66f4\u5145\u5206\u3002\n\n<h3>Trading And Positioning Ideas<\/h3>\n\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u53ea\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u5c0f\u5e45\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u9884\u671f\u4f1a\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u6682\u505c\uff08prolonged pause\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d\u518d\u52a0\u606f\uff09\u3002\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u504f\u9ad8\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u843d\u5dee\uff0c\u6784\u6210\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86RBA\u538b\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u51b3\u5fc3\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u53bb\u5e74\u67d0\u4e9b\u5173\u952e\u65f6\u70b9\u4e00\u6837\u3002\n\n\u5bf9\u8ba4\u4e3a\u52a0\u606f\u6982\u7387\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e70\u5165\u77ed\u671f\u9650\u6fb3\u5143\uff08AUD\uff09\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08call options\uff0c\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e70\u5165\u6743\u5229\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u63a7\u201d\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff08defined-risk\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u4e8f\u635f\u4e3a\u671f\u6743\u91d1\uff09\u3002\u5982\u679cRBA\u7ed9\u51fa\u66f4\u504f\u9e70\u6d3e\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u6297\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u7684\u610f\u5916\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4ed3\u4f4d\u53ef\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u5356\u51fa\u4ef7\u5916\uff08out-of-the-money\uff0c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u6bd4\u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\u66f4\u4e0d\u5229\u3001\u4f46\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u8f83\u4f4e\uff09\u6fb3\u5143\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff08put options\uff0c\u8d4b\u4e88\u5356\u51fa\u6743\u5229\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u4ee5\u6536\u53d6\u6743\u5229\u91d1\uff08premium\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u91d1\uff09\uff0c\u524d\u63d0\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u6fb3\u5143\u4e0b\u884c\u7a7a\u95f4\u6709\u9650\u3002\n\n\u5728\u201c\u96be\u5206\u9ad8\u4e0b\u201d\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6fb3\u5143\u7684\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5728RBA\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4e70\u5165\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08long straddle\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u76f8\u540c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u4e0e\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u3002\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u6c47\u4ef7\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u65f6\u83b7\u5229\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u610f\u5916\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u63aa\u8f9e\u610f\u5916\u504f\u9e3d\u6d3e\uff08dovish\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u964d\u606f\u6216\u66f4\u5bbd\u677e\uff09\u7684\u58f0\u660e\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\n\n\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e5f\u53ef\u7528\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\u8868\u8fbe\u5bf9RBA\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u82e5\u9884\u671f\u51fa\u73b0\u9e70\u6d3e\u610f\u5916\uff0c\u505a\u7a7a\u6fb3\u6d323\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u671f\u8d27\uff08shorting Australian 3-year government bond futures\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u503a\u5238\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3001\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u3002\u82e5\u592e\u884c\u6697\u793a\u5229\u7387\u9700\u8981\u201c\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u66f4\u4e45\u201d\uff08higher for longer\uff0c\u5373\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff09\u800c\u5e02\u573a\u5c1a\u672a\u5145\u5206\u8ba1\u4ef7\uff0c\u8be5\u4ed3\u4f4d\u6709\u671b\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u70b9\u51fb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/trade-now\/\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>\u521b\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5b9e\u8d26\u6237 <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>RBA\u6216\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u52a0\u606f25\u57fa\u70b9\u81f34.10%\uff0c\u671f\u8d27\u4ec5\u5b9a\u4ef753%\u5f15\u7206\u60ac\u5ff5\u3002\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u538b\u529b\u6491\u6fb3\u5143\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u53ef\u7528\u6fb3\u5143\u671f\u6743\u3001\u8de8\u5f0f\u6216\u505a\u7a7a3\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u671f\u8d27\u5e03\u5c40\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31403","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31403"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31403\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}