{"id":31755,"date":"2026-03-19T21:53:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T21:53:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%9a%84%e6%96%af%e7%89%b9%e5%87%a1%c2%b7%e5%ba%93%e6%99%ae%e6%9b%bc%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%b1%e4%bc%a6%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T21:53:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T21:53:54","slug":"%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%9a%84%e6%96%af%e7%89%b9%e5%87%a1%c2%b7%e5%ba%93%e6%99%ae%e6%9b%bc%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%b1%e4%bc%a6%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%9a%84%e6%96%af%e7%89%b9%e5%87%a1%c2%b7%e5%ba%93%e6%99%ae%e6%9b%bc%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%b1%e4%bc%a6%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8377\u5170\u5408\u4f5c\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u65af\u7279\u51e1\u00b7\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u57283.75%\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u56e0\u7d20\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u62c5\u5fe7\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u6e29\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u9e70\u6d3e\u4fe1\u53f7"},"content":{"rendered":"\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\uff08Bank of England\uff09\u628a\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\uff08Bank Rate\uff0c\u6307\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7ef4\u6301\u57283.75%\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u518d\u5ea6\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u63a8\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u6d4b\u540e\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u66f4\u504f\u201c\u9e70\u6d3e\u201d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u6307\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u6765\u538b\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08MPC\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u51b3\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u8d2d\u503a\u7b49\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u82e5\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u5df2\u51c6\u5907\u91c7\u53d6\u5e94\u5bf9\u884c\u52a8\u3002\n\n\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u673a\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u8ba8\u8bba\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u91cd\u70b9\u8f6c\u5411\u901a\u80c0\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u201c\u66f4\u987d\u56fa\u3001\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\u201d\uff08inflation persistence\uff0c\u6307\u901a\u80c0\u4e0d\u6613\u56de\u843d\u3001\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u4f01\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u518d\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u8f6c\u5f31\u3002\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u88ab\u66f4\u591a\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u201c\u5916\u90e8\u51b2\u51fb\u201d\uff08external shock\uff0c\u6307\u7531\u56fd\u9645\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7b49\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u5f15\u8d77\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u201c\u56fd\u5185\u56e0\u7d20\u9a71\u52a8\u201d\uff08domestically driven\uff0c\u6307\u5de5\u8d44\u3001\u9700\u6c42\u8fc7\u70ed\u7b49\u672c\u571f\u56e0\u7d20\uff09\u3002\n\n<h3>Rabobank Outlook And Risks<\/h3>\n\u8377\u5170\u5408\u4f5c\u94f6\u884c\uff08Rabobank\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u9884\u6d4b\u53ea\u4f1a\u52a0\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u3001\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e3a25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff08basis point\uff0cbp\uff1b1\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9=0.01\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u56e0\u6b6425bp=0.25\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u57284\u6708\u3002\u8be5\u884c\u4e5f\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u9700\u6c42\u75b2\u5f31\u4e4b\u9645\u7ee7\u7eed\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\uff08tighter policy\uff0c\u6307\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u7f29\u8868\u7b49\u8ba9\u8d44\u91d1\u66f4\u7d27\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u538b\u7f29\u9700\u6c42\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u66f4\u9ad8\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u201c\u8d38\u6613\u6761\u4ef6\u6076\u5316\u6324\u538b\u201d\uff08terms-of-trade squeeze\uff0c\u6307\u8fdb\u53e3\u80fd\u6e90\u53d8\u8d35\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u6574\u4f53\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e0e\u5c45\u6c11\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u4e5f\u4f1a\u52a0\u91cd\u538b\u529b\u3002\n\n\u8bc4\u8bba\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u51b2\u7a81\u5f88\u5feb\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u5426\u5219MPC\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u201c\u5ffd\u7565\u201d\u4f9b\u5e94\u51b2\u51fb\uff08look through the supply shock\uff0c\u6307\u4e0d\u56e0\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u4f9b\u7ed9\u56e0\u7d20\u800c\u8c03\u6574\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u3002\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; 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