{"id":32180,"date":"2026-03-25T18:55:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T18:55:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/ing%e7%9a%84%e8%a9%b9%e5%a7%86%e6%96%af%c2%b7%e5%8f%b2%e5%af%86%e6%96%af%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e4%bb%b7%e6%a0%bc%e8%b5%b0%e5%8a%bf%e5%b0%86%e5%bc%95%e5%af%bc%e8%8b%b1%e4%bc%a6\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T18:55:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T18:55:27","slug":"ing%e7%9a%84%e8%a9%b9%e5%a7%86%e6%96%af%c2%b7%e5%8f%b2%e5%af%86%e6%96%af%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e4%bb%b7%e6%a0%bc%e8%b5%b0%e5%8a%bf%e5%b0%86%e5%bc%95%e5%af%bc%e8%8b%b1%e4%bc%a6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/ing%e7%9a%84%e8%a9%b9%e5%a7%86%e6%96%af%c2%b7%e5%8f%b2%e5%af%86%e6%96%af%e8%a1%a8%e7%a4%ba%ef%bc%8c%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e4%bb%b7%e6%a0%bc%e8%b5%b0%e5%8a%bf%e5%b0%86%e5%bc%95%e5%af%bc%e8%8b%b1%e4%bc%a6\/","title":{"rendered":"ING\u7684\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u53f2\u5bc6\u65af\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u8d70\u52bf\u5c06\u5f15\u5bfc\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u5cf0\u503c\u6599\u4ecb\u4e8e3.5%\u81f34%\u4e4b\u95f4"},"content":{"rendered":"\u82f1\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u9884\u8ba1\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21 Ofgem\uff08\u82f1\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\uff09\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u9650\uff08\u6bcf\u6237\u7535\u8d39\/\u71c3\u6c14\u8d39\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6536\u8d39\u6807\u51c6\uff09\u66f4\u65b0\u5c06\u57287\u6708\u516c\u5e03\u3002\u6309\u76ee\u524d\u6279\u53d1\u4ef7\u63a8\u7b97\uff0c7\u6708\u80fd\u6e90\u8d26\u5355\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u8c03\u7ea625%\u3002\n\n\u6574\u4f53CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6da8\u5e45\uff09\u9884\u8ba1\u57284\u6708\u964d\u81f32.3%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e2\u6708\u76843%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0a\u4e00\u8d22\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u52a8\u4e0d\u518d\u8ba1\u5165\u540c\u6bd4\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u901a\u80c0\uff08\u670d\u52a1\u7c7b\u4ef7\u683c\u6da8\u5e45\uff09\u9884\u8ba1\u4ece4.3%\u4e0b\u964d\u8d85\u8fc71\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\n\n<h3>Near Term Inflation Path<\/h3>\n\u82e5\u6cb9\u4ef7\u5728100\u7f8e\u5143\/\u6876\uff08bbl=\u6876\uff09\u4e14TTF\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u572850\u201355\u6b27\u5143\/\u5146\u74e6\u65f6\uff08MWh=\u7528\u7535\/\u7528\u6c14\u91cf\u7684\u8ba1\u4ef7\u5355\u4f4d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u80fd\u6e90\u6279\u53d1\u4ef7\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u79cb\u5b63\u77ed\u6682\u56de\u52304%\u3002\u6309ING\uff08\u8377\u5170\u56fd\u9645\u96c6\u56e2\uff09\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u666f\uff08base case=\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e3b\u5047\u8bbe\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\uff082Q=\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\uff09\u6270\u52a8\u7f13\u89e3\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u8ba1\u57289\u6708\u89c1\u9876\u7ea63.5%\u3002\n\n\u8fd9\u6b21\u901a\u80c0\u5cf0\u503c\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6bd4\u4fc4\u4e4c\u6218\u4e89\u7206\u53d1\u524d\u7684\u9884\u671f\u9ad8\u51fa1\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u5c55\u671b\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2025\u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u4f5c\u4e3a\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u5c40\u52bf\u7684\u53c2\u7167\u5e74\u4efd\u3002\n\n\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ecd\u9ad8\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u53c2\u8003\u8fc7\u53bb\u5224\u65ad\u5e02\u573a\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u5e94\u30022022\u5e74\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u51b2\u51fb\u63d0\u9192\u5e02\u573a\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5feb\u51fa\u9519\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u901a\u80c0\u5cf0\u503c\u7ea64%\uff0c\u4f46\u540e\u6765\u4e8b\u5b9e\u662fCPI\u57282022\u5e7410\u6708\u98d9\u5347\u81f311.1%\uff0c\u521b41\u5e74\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\n\n\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a\u4f9b\u5e94\u51b2\u51fb\uff08\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7a81\u7136\u53d7\u9650\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ef7\u683c\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u901a\u80c0\u4f30\u8ba1\u5f80\u5f80\u504f\u4f4e\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5e94\u8b66\u60d5\u201c\u5f53\u524d\u538b\u529b\u4e0d\u5927\u6216\u5f88\u5feb\u7ed3\u675f\u201d\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u671f\u6743\uff08\u7528\u6765\u62bc\u6ce8\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u671f\u6743\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u201c\u5e73\u7a33\u8c03\u6574\u201d\u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\uff08\u4ef7\u683c\u504f\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff09\u3002\n\n<h3>Implications For Traders<\/h3>\n\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53cd\u5e94\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u63092025\u5e74\u7684\u201c\u5267\u672c\u201d\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u91cd\u6f142022\u5e74\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u901a\u80c0\u7a33\u6b65\u56de\u843d\u3001\u63a5\u8fd12%\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u975e\u5e38\u8106\u5f31\u3001GDP\uff08\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u603b\u4ea7\u51fa\uff09\u589e\u957f\u75b2\u5f31\u3002\u82f1\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40ONS\uff08\u5b98\u65b9\u7edf\u8ba1\u673a\u6784\uff09\u786e\u8ba4\u5168\u5e74\u4ec5\u589e\u957f0.4%\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c\uff08\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff09\u4e0d\u613f\u91c7\u53d6\u7a81\u7136\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u52a8\u4f5c\u3002\n\n\u9274\u4e8e2026\u5e742\u6708\u6700\u65b0\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\uff08unemployment rate=\u5931\u4e1a\u4eba\u53e3\u5360\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff09\u5c0f\u5e45\u5347\u81f34.5%\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u4f18\u5148\u8003\u8651\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7528\u6fc0\u8fdb\u65b9\u5f0f\u6253\u538b\u8fd1\u671f\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u901a\u80c0\u56de\u5347\u3002\u5b83\u4f1a\u8c28\u614e\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\uff08tightening=\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u523a\u6fc0\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u514d\u89e6\u53d1\u8870\u9000\uff08recession=\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u53bb\u5e74\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff08interest rate futures=\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e86\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u66f4\u5f3a\u786c\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u529b\u5ea6\u3002\n\n\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u5e03\u5c40\u592e\u884c\u201c\u843d\u540e\u4e8e\u5f62\u52bf\u201d\uff08behind the curve=\u52a0\u606f\/\u7d27\u7f29\u8ddf\u4e0d\u4e0a\u901a\u80c0\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5173\u6ce8\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u6362\uff08interest rate swaps=\u4ea4\u6362\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u6d6e\u52a8\u5229\u7387\u73b0\u91d1\u6d41\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u5229\u7387\u5728\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u7ef4\u6301\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u5f53\u524d\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5173\u952e\u662f\u4ea4\u6613\u592e\u884c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u53cd\u5e94\u5c06\u53d7\u52302025\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8106\u5f31\u8bb0\u5fc6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u70b9\u51fb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/trade-now\/\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>\u521b\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5b9e\u8d26\u6237 <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u901a\u80c04\u6708\u6599\u964d\u81f32.3%\u4f46\u522b\u6389\u4ee5\u8f7b\u5fc3\uff1a7\u6708Ofgem\u4ef7\u4e0a\u9650\u6216\u63a8\u9ad8\u80fd\u6e90\u8d26\u535525%\uff0c\u79cb\u5b63CPI\u6216\u56de\u5347\u81f33.5%\u3002\u592e\u884c\u66f4\u987e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u6216\u6ca1\u5e02\u573a\u60f3\u8c61\u5f3a\u786c\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32180","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32180"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32180\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}