{"id":43659,"date":"2026-03-30T22:15:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T22:15:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e9%b2%8d%e5%a8%81%e5%b0%94%e5%91%8a%e8%af%89%e5%93%88%e4%bd%9b%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%ad%a6%e7%94%9f%ef%bc%9a%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e5%8f%af%e6%9a%82%e5%81%9c%e8%a1%8c%e5%8a%a8%ef%bc%8c\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T22:15:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T22:15:59","slug":"%e9%b2%8d%e5%a8%81%e5%b0%94%e5%91%8a%e8%af%89%e5%93%88%e4%bd%9b%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%ad%a6%e7%94%9f%ef%bc%9a%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e5%8f%af%e6%9a%82%e5%81%9c%e8%a1%8c%e5%8a%a8%ef%bc%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e9%b2%8d%e5%a8%81%e5%b0%94%e5%91%8a%e8%af%89%e5%93%88%e4%bd%9b%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%ad%a6%e7%94%9f%ef%bc%9a%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e5%8f%af%e6%9a%82%e5%81%9c%e8%a1%8c%e5%8a%a8%ef%bc%8c\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u544a\u8bc9\u54c8\u4f5b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b66\u751f\uff1a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ef\u6682\u505c\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5728\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u4e2d\u5e73\u8861\u53cc\u91cd\u4f7f\u547d"},"content":{"rendered":"Jerome Powell\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff08Fed\uff09\u7684\u4e24\u5927\u76ee\u6807\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u62c9\u626f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u59d4\u5458\u610f\u89c1\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u653f\u7b56\u5904\u5728\u201c\u9002\u5408\u89c2\u671b\u201d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5148\u89c2\u5bdf\u5f53\u524d\u60c5\u51b5\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e5f\u8fd8\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\n\n\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u8ba9\u901a\u80c0\uff08inflation\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u7269\u4ef7\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\u5728\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u56de\u52302%\u3002\u4ed6\u5f62\u5bb9\u201c\u5173\u7a0e\u901a\u80c0\u201d\uff08tariff inflation\uff0c\u56e0\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fdb\u53e3\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u63a8\u9ad8\u7269\u4ef7\uff09\u66f4\u50cf\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u8c03\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u901a\u80c0\u589e\u52a00.5\u52301\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\n\n<h3>\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\u53d6\u820d<\/h3>\nPowell\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6c7d\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u201c\u770b\u7a7f\u201d\u4f9b\u7ed9\u51b2\u51fb\uff08supply shocks\uff0c\u56e0\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4e2d\u65ad\u6216\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u9020\u6210\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u7269\u4ef7\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5fc5\u987b\u5173\u6ce8\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff0c\u6c11\u4f17\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff09\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4ecd\u7136\u201c\u951a\u5b9a\u201d\uff08anchored\uff0c\u5373\u9884\u671f\u7a33\u5b9a\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u5931\u63a7\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3002\n\n\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u666e\u904d\u53d1\u73b0\u8d2d\u4e70\u957f\u671f\u8d44\u4ea7\u4f1a\u538b\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u5e76\u652f\u6491\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u6709\u9053\u7406\u3002\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u66fe\u9884\u6d4b\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u8fc7\u5927\uff08balance sheet\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6301\u6709\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u89c4\u6a21\uff09\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u660e\u663e\u526f\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u76ee\u524d\u5e76\u672a\u770b\u5230\u3002\n\nPowell\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5fc5\u987b\u5b8c\u5168\u72ec\u7acb\u3001\u4e0d\u80fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5316\uff1b\u81f3\u4e8e\u76d1\u7ba1\uff0c\u81ea\u4ece\u300a\u591a\u5fb7-\u5f17\u5170\u514b\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff08Dodd-Frank\uff0c2008\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u5f3a\u91d1\u878d\u76d1\u7ba1\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\uff09\u4ee5\u6765\u5df2\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u5f88\u4f4e\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u8d85\u51fa\u6b63\u5e38\u666f\u6c14\u5faa\u73af\uff08business cycle\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5f20\u4e0e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u5468\u671f\uff09\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u957f\u671f\u53d8\u5316\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u3002\n\n\u4ed6\u4e5f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI\uff09\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u66f4\u9ad8\u6548\uff0c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u4e2d\u671f\u4e0e\u957f\u671f\u975e\u5e38\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5728\u8fdb\u5165\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u786e\u5b9e\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\n\n<h3>\u5e02\u573a\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0e\u4ed3\u4f4d\u601d\u8def<\/h3>\n\u76ee\u524d\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\u5904\u5728\u201c\u9002\u5408\u89c2\u671b\u201d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u5e02\u573a\u5148\u524d\u5bf92025\u5e74\u57fa\u8c03\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff08federal funds rate\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u77ed\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u4e09\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u7ef4\u6301\u57285.25%\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u77ed\u671f\u5e94\u9884\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u533a\u95f4\u9707\u8361\u4e3a\u4e3b\u3002CME FedWatch Tool\uff08\u829d\u5546\u6240\u6839\u636e\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\u63a8\u7b97\u7684\u964d\u606f\u6982\u7387\u5de5\u5177\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u8ba1\u5165\uff1a\u57282026\u5e747\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a65%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u573a\u8010\u5fc3\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u671f\u653f\u7b56\u5c06\u8f6c\u5411\u5bbd\u677e\u3002\n\n\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u516c\u5f00\u7acb\u573a\u4ecd\u662f\u628a\u901a\u80c0\u62c9\u56de2%\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f97\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u6700\u65b02026\u5e742\u6708\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff08CPI\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u5c45\u6c11\u6d88\u8d39\u7bee\u5b50\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u663e\u793a\u901a\u80c0\u964d\u81f32.8%\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u538b\u529b\u6b63\u5728\u7d2f\u79ef\u3002\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u8c03\u67e5\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4e94\u5e74\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u4ecd\u951a\u5b9a\u5728\u7ea62.9%\uff0c\u8ba9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u672a\u6765\u9010\u6b65\u653e\u677e\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u81f3\u4e8e\u5f15\u53d1\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u5931\u63a7\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002\n\n\u56de\u5934\u770b\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5bf9\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u5df2\u6210\u73b0\u5b9e\u30022026\u5e742\u6708\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\uff08non-farm payrolls\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6708\u5ea6\u5c31\u4e1a\u589e\u91cf\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4e0d\u542b\u519c\u4e1a\uff09\u4ec5\u589e\u52a09.5\u4e07\u4eba\uff0c\u660e\u663e\u4f4e\u4e8e2025\u5e74\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\u7ea618\u4e07\u4eba\u7684\u6708\u5747\u589e\u5e45\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u75b2\u5f31\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u504f\u5411\u201c\u9e3d\u6d3e\u9884\u671f\u201d\uff08dovish expectations\uff0c\u5373\u9884\u671f\u964d\u606f\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u8f83\u5bbd\u677e\uff09\u7684\u5173\u952e\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4e5f\u652f\u6301\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e70\u5165SOFR\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u7ea6\uff08SOFR futures\uff0c\u4ee5SOFR\u9694\u591c\u878d\u8d44\u5229\u7387\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u62bc\u6ce8\u6216\u5bf9\u51b2\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u3002\n\n\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u8981\u8bb0\u4f4f\u201c\u770b\u7a7f\u4f9b\u7ed9\u51b2\u51fb\u201d\u7684\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5c24\u5176\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u63a8\u9ad8WTI\u539f\u6cb9\uff08\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8d28\u539f\u6cb9\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u51c6\uff09\u6da88%\u81f3\u6bcf\u687682\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e26\u6765\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u80fd\u6e90\u7c7bETF\uff08\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u4ea4\u6613\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u8ddf\u8e2a\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\uff09\u5982XLE\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff08options\uff0c\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e70\u5356\u6743\u5229\u4f46\u975e\u4e49\u52a1\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u4e70\u5165\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u66f4\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5347\u6e29\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\n\n\u5173\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u201c\u5927\u578b\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u672a\u5f15\u53d1\u91cd\u5927\u8d1f\u9762\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4e5f\u4ecd\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u4ecd\u9ad8\u4e8e6.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u5176\u7f13\u6162\u7f29\u8868\uff08\u7f29\u51cf\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u56de\u6536\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff09\u5e76\u672a\u9020\u6210\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u62c5\u5fc3\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6270\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u201c\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u201d\uff08tail risk\uff0c\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u4f46\u51b2\u51fb\u6781\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\u7a81\u7136\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7d27\u7f29\uff08liquidity crunch\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u8d44\u91d1\u9aa4\u7136\u53d8\u5c11\u3001\u878d\u8d44\u56f0\u96be\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u8ba9\u957f\u671f\u770b\u591a\uff08bullish\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\u80a1\u7968\u6307\u6570\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08equity index derivatives\uff0c\u4e0e\u80a1\u6307\u6302\u94a9\u7684\u671f\u8d27\/\u671f\u6743\u7b49\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u66f4\u5b89\u5fc3\u3002\n<p>\r\n\r\n<p><strong>\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613 &#8211; \u70b9\u51fb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/trade-now\/\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>\u521b\u5efa\u60a8\u7684 VT Markets \u771f\u5b9e\u8d26\u6237 <\/strong> <\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u79f0\u53cc\u76ee\u6807\u62c9\u626f\u81f4\u59d4\u5458\u5206\u6b67\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u5b9c\u89c2\u671b\uff1b\u5173\u7a0e\u63a8\u901a\u80c0\u6216\u4ec5\u4e00\u6b21\u6027+0.5\u81f31%\u3002\u5c31\u4e1a\u8f6c\u5f31\u589e\u964d\u606f\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4e0e\u5730\u7f18\u98ce\u9669\u4e0b\u5173\u6ce8\u5bf9\u51b2\u4e0eSOFR\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43659\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}