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FedWatch\uff08\u829d\u5546\u6240\u5229\u7387\u6982\u7387\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u7528\u671f\u8d27\u4ef7\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff09\u663e\u793a2026\u5e74\u5269\u4f59\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4e144\u6708\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a80%\u3002\n\n\u7279\u6717\u666e\u628a4\u67086\u65e5\u8bbe\u4e3a\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u91cd\u5f00\u7684\u6700\u540e\u671f\u9650\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u5df2\u5ef6\u957f10\u5929\u3002\u54c8\u5c14\u514b\u5c9b\u5904\u7406\u4f0a\u6717\u7ea690%\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u51fa\u53e3\uff1b\u9ad8\u76db\u79f0\uff0c\u82e5\u957f\u671f\u5173\u95ed\uff0c\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u53ef\u80fd\u6d4b\u8bd52008\u5e74\u9ad8\u70b9\u9644\u8fd1\u7684147\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u8ba1\u5468\u4e09EIA\u5e93\u5b58\u62a5\u544a\u5c06\u663e\u793a\u51cf\u5c11120\u4e07\u6876\uff08draw\uff0c\u5e93\u5b58\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u4e00\u5468\u4e3a\u589e\u52a0\uff08build\uff0c\u5e93\u5b58\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u3002\n\n\u5728WTI\u5b88\u5728\u6bcf\u6876100\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\uff08volatility\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u77ed\u671f\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u4e0b\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u6210\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u6700\u5173\u952e\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u4eceCBOE\u539f\u6cb9\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6307\u6570OVX\uff08CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index\uff0c\u4ee5\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u672a\u676530\u5929\u6ce2\u52a8\u9884\u671f\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u6765\uff1aOVX\u7ef4\u6301\u572855\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u504f\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5e02\u573a\u6781\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u5bf9\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u4ee5\u6807\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u5982\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u671f\u6743\u7b49\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u671f\u6743\u8d39\uff08option premium\uff0c\u4e70\u671f\u6743\u9700\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\u975e\u5e38\u8d35\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u4e70\u5165\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08call\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\u6216\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff08put\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\u6210\u672c\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\n\n\u534e\u76db\u987f\u4e0e\u5fb7\u9ed1\u5170\u7684\u7a81\u53d1\u65b0\u95fb\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4ee4\u671f\u6743\u5e02\u573a\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u7684\u6b63\u504f\u659c\uff08positive skew\uff0c\u4e5f\u79f0\u201c\u504f\u659c\/\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u201d\uff0c\u6307\u540c\u6837\u8ddd\u79bb\u73b0\u4ef7\u7684\u671f\u6743\u4e2d\uff0c\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\u6bd4\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\u8d35\u5f97\u591a\uff09\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u62c5\u5fc3\u4ef7\u683c\u7a81\u7136\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5927\u8dcc\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u504f\u659c\u57282022\u5e74\u4fc4\u4e4c\u51b2\u7a81\u521d\u671f\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6WTI\u968f\u540e\u51b2\u5411120\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u3002\n\n<h3>\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52a8\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u601d\u8def<\/h3>\n\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u76844\u67086\u65e5\u671f\u9650\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08binary event\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u201c\u6210\/\u8d25\u201d\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\uff09\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u4ed3\u4f4d\u4e0a\u505a\u53d6\u820d\u3002\u82e5\u5916\u4ea4\u7a81\u7834\uff0c14\u81f318\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u6ea2\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5feb\u6d88\u5931\uff1b\u82e5\u54c8\u5c14\u514b\u5c9b\u906d\u88ad\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc8\u5411115\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u671f\u6743\u6602\u8d35\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u5782\u76f4\u4ef7\u5dee\uff08vertical spread\uff0c\u7528\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u6267\u884c\u4ef7\u7684\u4e24\u5f20\u671f\u6743\u7ec4\u5408\u6765\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u5e76\u9650\u5b9a\u98ce\u9669\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u725b\u5e02\u770b\u6da8\u4ef7\u5dee\uff08bull call spread\uff09\u6216\u718a\u5e02\u770b\u8dcc\u4ef7\u5dee\uff08bear put spread\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u5728\u8868\u8fbe\u65b9\u5411\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u628a\u6700\u5927\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u521d\u59cb\u6210\u672c\u63a7\u5236\u5728\u53ef\u9884\u671f\u8303\u56f4\u3002\n\n\u4f9b\u5e94\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u201c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6027\u5173\u95ed\u201d\u5df2\u8ba9\u5927\u91cf\u539f\u6cb9\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u800c\u6218\u7565\u50a8\u5907\u6295\u653e\u672a\u80fd\u4fee\u8865\u7f3a\u53e3\u3002\u56de\u987e2019\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u6c99\u7279\u8bbe\u65bd\u9047\u88ad\u66fe\u5f15\u53d1\u4f9b\u5e94\u51b2\u51fb\uff08supply shock\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u7a81\u7136\u51cf\u5c11\uff09\uff0c\u4ee4\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u5355\u65e5\u8df3\u7a7a\uff08gap 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