{"id":44123,"date":"2026-04-07T21:42:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T21:42:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%ef%bc%8c%e6%b3%a2%e6%96%af%e6%b9%be%e5%b9%b2%e6%89%b0%e5%8f%8a%e9%9c%8d%e5%b0%94%e6%9c%a8%e5%85%b9%e6%b5%b7%e5%b3%a1%e7%93%b6%e9%a2%88%e5%b0%86\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T21:42:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T21:42:14","slug":"%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%ef%bc%8c%e6%b3%a2%e6%96%af%e6%b9%be%e5%b9%b2%e6%89%b0%e5%8f%8a%e9%9c%8d%e5%b0%94%e6%9c%a8%e5%85%b9%e6%b5%b7%e5%b3%a1%e7%93%b6%e9%a2%88%e5%b0%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e9%81%93%e6%98%8e%e8%af%81%e5%88%b8%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%ef%bc%8c%e6%b3%a2%e6%96%af%e6%b9%be%e5%b9%b2%e6%89%b0%e5%8f%8a%e9%9c%8d%e5%b0%94%e6%9c%a8%e5%85%b9%e6%b5%b7%e5%b3%a1%e7%93%b6%e9%a2%88%e5%b0%86\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9053\u660e\u8bc1\u5238\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u6ce2\u65af\u6e7e\u5e72\u6270\u53ca\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u74f6\u9888\u5c06\u4f7f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u6bcf\u687690\u81f3100\u7f8e\u5143\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u76f4\u81f32027\u5e74"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD Securities\uff08\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u9053\u660e\u8bc1\u5238\uff09\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u56e2\u961f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ce2\u65af\u6e7e\uff08Persian Gulf\uff09\u51fa\u73b0\u957f\u671f\u4e2d\u65ad\uff0c\u4e14\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91cd\u8981\u80fd\u6e90\u822a\u9053\uff09\u8fd0\u8f93\u88ab\u5c01\u9501\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u63a8\u9ad8\u3002\u8be5\u56e2\u961f\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u5728\u822a\u9053\u65e0\u6cd5\u901a\u884c\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u539f\u6cb9\uff08crude oil\uff0c\u672a\u63d0\u70bc\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\uff09\u3001\u6210\u54c1\u6cb9\uff08petroleum products\uff0c\u5982\u6c7d\u6cb9\u4e0e\u67f4\u6cb9\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u6db2\u5316\u5929\u7136\u6c14\uff08LNG\uff0cLiquefied Natural Gas\uff0c\u628a\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u51b7\u5374\u6210\u6db2\u4f53\u4ee5\u4fbf\u6d77\u8fd0\uff09\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u53ef\u80fd\u8d8b\u7d27\uff08\u66f4\u7f3a\u8d27\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e2\u961f\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u82e5\u5c01\u9501\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u4ea7\u91cf\u5c06\u8d70\u5f31\u3001\u5e93\u5b58\u5c06\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u5b83\u79f0\u5982\u679c\u51b2\u7a81\u62d6\u5f97\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u4e45\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u7ee7\u7eed\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

Potential Price Surge Scenario<\/h3>\n

\u56e2\u961f\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u82e5\u51b2\u7a81\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u5185\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u6da850\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u66f4\u591a\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6218\u4e8b\u5f88\u5feb\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4f9b\u5e94\u7f3a\u53e3\uff08deficits\uff0c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u5c11\u4e8e\u9700\u6c42\uff09\u4e0e\u4f4e\u5e93\u5b58\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e2\u961f\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6bcf\u687690\u81f3100\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u5ef6\u7eed\u52302027\u5e74\u3002\u5b83\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u7b49\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u52a0\u5feb\u8865\u5e93\uff08rebuild inventories\uff0c\u628a\u5e93\u5b58\u8865\u56de\u5b89\u5168\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6587\u7ae0\u79f0\u5185\u5bb9\u7531\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5de5\u5177\u751f\u6210\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u7f16\u8f91\u5ba1\u6838\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9274\u4e8e\u6ce2\u65af\u6e7e\u51b2\u7a81\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6cb9\u4ef7\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u662f\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u884c\u3002\u81ea2025\u5e74\u5e95\u5c01\u9501\u5f00\u59cb\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7a7f\u8d8a\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u7684\u8fd0\u8f93\u91cf\u4e0b\u6ed1\u8fd180%\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6bcf\u5929\u5c11\u4e86\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u6876\u4f9b\u5e94\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u51b2\u51fb\uff08supply shock\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u7a81\u7136\u51cf\u5c11\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u9707\u8361\uff09\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8fd1\u671f\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6da8\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u672a\u7ed3\u675f\u3002<\/p>\n

Risk Management And Volatility Outlook<\/h3>\n

\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5e94\u8003\u8651\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u518d\u4e00\u6ce2\u660e\u663e\u4e0a\u884c\u505a\u5e03\u5c40\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u4e70\u5165\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8d27\uff08crude oil futures\uff0c\u7ea6\u5b9a\u672a\u6765\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5356\u539f\u6cb9\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u4e0e\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08call options\uff0c\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5165\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u82e5\u5c40\u52bf\u4e0d\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u4e0a\u6da850\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0d\u4f4e\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4f3c2022\u5e74\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4f9b\u5e94\u53d7\u6270\u540e\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent crude\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u57fa\u51c6\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u4e00\u5ea6\u5347\u7834\u6bcf\u6876130\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f9b\u5e94\u5371\u673a\u56e0\u5168\u7403\u5e93\u5b58\u5904\u4e8e\u6781\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u800c\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u7f13\u51b2\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u4fe1\u606f\u7f72\uff08EIA\uff0cEnergy Information Administration\uff092026\u5e743\u6708\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6218\u7565\u50a8\u5907\uff08strategic reserves\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u7528\u4e8e\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u50a8\u5907\uff09\u5904\u4e8e50\u5e74\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u591a\u6570\u7ecf\u5408\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08OECD\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff09\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u51b2\u7a81\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u7b49\u56fd\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u4e3e\u8865\u5e93\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u652f\u6491\u9ad8\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5373\u4fbf\u660e\u5929\u5ba3\u5e03\u505c\u706b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5efa\u8bae\u5efa\u7acb\u5927\u91cf\u7a7a\u5934\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff08short positions\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u6301\u4ed3\uff09\u3002\u751f\u4ea7\u8bbe\u65bd\u53d7\u635f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u56de\u8865\u6240\u9700\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4f9b\u9700\u7f3a\u53e3\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u52302027\u5e74\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6bcf\u687690\u81f3100\u7f8e\u5143\u533a\u95f4\u5f62\u6210\u65b0\u7684\u201c\u5e95\u90e8\u201d\uff08floor\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u8f83\u96be\u8dcc\u7834\u7684\u533a\u95f4\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u53ef\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u7ef4\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5c06\u4f7f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08volatility\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4ee4\u671f\u6743\u6210\u4e3a\u7ba1\u7406\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u628a\u63e1\u4e0a\u884c\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u829d\u5546\u6240\u65d7\u4e0bCboe\u539f\u6cb9\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6307\u6570OVX\uff08Cboe Crude Oil Volatility Index\uff0c\u7528\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u63a8\u7b97\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff09\u6301\u7eed\u572845\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6c34\u5e73\u81ea\u53bb\u5e74\u51b2\u7a81\u521d\u671f\u51b2\u51fb\u4ee5\u6765\u4e0d\u5e38\u89c1\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u66f4\u5229\u4e8e\u4ece\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f46\u4e3b\u8981\u98ce\u9669\u4ecd\u504f\u5411\u6cb9\u4ef7\u7a81\u7136\u3001\u5267\u70c8\u98d9\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u82e5\u957f\u671f\u5c01\u9501\uff0c\u539f\u6cb9\u4e0eLNG\u4f9b\u5e94\u9aa4\u7d27\u3001\u5e93\u5b58\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u6216\u518d\u98d950\u7f8e\u5143\uff1b\u5373\u4f7f\u505c\u706b\u4ecd\u96be\u56de\u843d\uff0c90-100\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u6210\u65b0\u5e95\u81f32027\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u6210\u5173\u952e\u5bf9\u51b2\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44123","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44123"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44123\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}