{"id":44181,"date":"2026-04-08T04:58:03","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T04:58:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e8%8b%b1%e9%95%91-%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e9%80%bc%e8%bf%911-3400%ef%bc%8c%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e5%81%9c%e7%81%ab%e6%8f%90%e6%8c%af%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%81%8f%e5%a5%bd%e5%b9%b6%e5%89%8a%e5%bc%b1%e7%be%8e\/"},"modified":"2026-04-08T04:58:03","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T04:58:03","slug":"%e8%8b%b1%e9%95%91-%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e9%80%bc%e8%bf%911-3400%ef%bc%8c%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e5%81%9c%e7%81%ab%e6%8f%90%e6%8c%af%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%81%8f%e5%a5%bd%e5%b9%b6%e5%89%8a%e5%bc%b1%e7%be%8e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e8%8b%b1%e9%95%91-%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e9%80%bc%e8%bf%911-3400%ef%bc%8c%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e5%81%9c%e7%81%ab%e6%8f%90%e6%8c%af%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%81%8f%e5%a5%bd%e5%b9%b6%e5%89%8a%e5%bc%b1%e7%be%8e\/","title":{"rendered":"\u82f1\u9551\/\u7f8e\u5143\u903c\u8fd11.3400\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u505c\u706b\u63d0\u632f\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u5e76\u524a\u5f31\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6c47\u4ef7\u8d70\u9ad8"},"content":{"rendered":"

GBP\/USD \u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e\u603b\u7edf\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u4f0a\u6717\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u6682\u505c\u4e24\u5468\u540e\uff0c\u4ece 1.3200 \u4f4e\u4f4d\u56de\u5347\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd1 1.3400 \u7684\u5f53\u65e5\u9ad8\u70b9\u3002\u6c47\u4ef7\u56de\u5230 1.3300 \u4e0a\u65b9\u9ad8\u4f4d\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u5e76\u7ad9\u4e0a\u5c0f\u65f6\u56fe 50 \u4e0e 200 \u5468\u671f\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7ebf\uff08moving average\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0 MA\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u5e73\u6ed1\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u3001\u5224\u65ad\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u4ef7\u683c\u7ebf\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u8f6c\u5411\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\uff08risk assets\uff0c\u6307\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u8d27\u5e01\u7b49\u5728\u60c5\u7eea\u504f\u597d\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\u66f4\u53d7\u9752\u7750\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff09\uff0c\u56e0 WTI \u539f\u6cb9\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8d28\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u51c6\uff09\u4ece\u6bcf\u6876 106 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8dcc\u81f3 90 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002\u6807\u666e 500 \u6307\u6570\u671f\u8d27\uff08S&P 500 futures\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u7f8e\u80a1\u76d8\u524d\/\u9884\u671f\u8d70\u52bf\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u6da8\u903e 1%\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\uff08US Dollar Index\uff0cDXY\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u5bf9\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u5f3a\u5f31\u7684\u6307\u6570\uff09\u56de\u843d\u81f3 100.00 \u9644\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u4e0e PMI \u8d70\u5f31<\/h3>\n

\u82f1\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u504f\u5f31\uff0c3 \u6708\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a PMI\uff08\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u884c\u4e1a\u666f\u6c14\u5ea6\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u6307\u6807\uff1b50 \u4e3a\u8363\u67af\u7ebf\uff09\u7ec8\u503c\u4ece 51.2 \u4e0b\u4fee\u81f3 50.5\uff0c\u5e76\u4f4e\u4e8e 2 \u6708\u7684 53.9\u3002\u7efc\u5408 PMI\uff08\u628a\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u5408\u5e76\u8861\u91cf\u603b\u4f53\u666f\u6c14\uff09\u8dcc\u81f3 50.3\uff1b\u65b0\u8ba2\u5355\uff08new work\uff0c\u65b0\u63a5\u5230\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\/\u8ba2\u5355\uff09\u81ea 2025 \u5e74 11 \u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u901a\u80c0\uff08input cost inflation\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u539f\u6750\u6599\u3001\u5de5\u8d44\u7b49\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u6da8\u538b\u529b\uff09\u5347\u81f3 11 \u4e2a\u6708\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\uff08Bank of England\uff0cBoE\uff09\u81ea 2025 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u8d77\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728 3.75%\uff0c\u5e76\u5728 3 \u6708\u4e00\u81f4\u6295\u7968\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\uff08pricing\uff0c\u6307\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\/\u6389\u671f\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff09\u4e00\u5ea6\u4ece\u201c2026 \u5e74\u964d\u606f\u4e24\u5230\u4e09\u6b21\u201d\u8f6c\u4e3a\u201c\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u52a0\u606f\u56db\u6b21\u3001\u6bcf\u6b21 0.25 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff08quarter-point\uff0c25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff09\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u505c\u706b\u6d88\u606f\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u5229\u7387\u62bc\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f0a\u6717\u5728\u8be5\u6d88\u606f\u53d1\u5e03\u524d\u6570\u5c0f\u65f6\u62d2\u7edd\u4e34\u65f6\u505c\u706b\uff1b\u9884\u6d4b\u5e73\u53f0 Polymarket \u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u622a\u81f3 4 \u6708\u5e95\u5b9e\u73b0\u957f\u671f\u505c\u706b\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a 22.5%\u3002\u91cd\u70b9\u6570\u636e\u5305\u62ec\uff1aFOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\uff08\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8bae\u606f\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u653f\u7b56\u503e\u5411\uff0c18:00 GMT\uff09\u3001\u6838\u5fc3 PCE\uff08Core PCE\uff0c\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u504f\u597d\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff0c12:30 GMT\uff09\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca 3 \u6708 CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u80c0\uff0c12:30 GMT\uff09\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f CPI \u540c\u6bd4\uff08YoY\uff0c\u6309\u5e74\u6bd4\u8f83\uff09\u4e3a 3.3%\uff08\u524d\u503c 2.4%\uff09\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u4e3a 2.7%\uff08\u524d\u503c 2.5%\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82f1\u56fd\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6307\u6807\u5305\u62ec\uff1aHalifax \u623f\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff08\u4ee5\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u6570\u636e\u8861\u91cf\u623f\u4ef7\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u3001\u5efa\u7b51\u4e1a PMI\u3001\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\u4fe1\u8d37\u72b6\u51b5\u8c03\u67e5\uff08Credit Conditions Survey\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u94f6\u884c\u653e\u8d37\u610f\u613f\u4e0e\u4fe1\u8d37\u9700\u6c42\uff09\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca RICS \u623f\u4ef7\u5dee\u503c\uff08Housing Price Balance\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u7687\u5bb6\u7279\u8bb8\u6d4b\u91cf\u5e08\u5b66\u4f1a\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u6b63\u503c\u4ee3\u8868\u4e0a\u6da8\u8005\u591a\u4e8e\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8005\uff09\u9884\u4f30\u4e3a -18%\u3002GBP\/USD \u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4ef7\u4f4d\u5305\u62ec\uff1a200 \u5468\u671f EMA\uff08\u6307\u6570\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u7ebf\uff0c\u7ed9\u4e88\u8fd1\u671f\u4ef7\u683c\u66f4\u9ad8\u6743\u91cd\u7684\u5747\u7ebf\uff09\u5728 1.3261\uff0c\u963b\u529b\uff08resistance\uff0c\u4e0a\u65b9\u5356\u538b\u533a\u57df\uff09\u5728 1.3480 \u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u533a\u95f4\u5728 1.3160 \u81f3 1.3480 \u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u671f\u6743\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u5bf9\u51b2<\/h3>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u5173\u6ce8\u82f1\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u504f\u5f31\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a PMI \u7ec8\u503c\u4e0b\u4fee\u81f3 50.5 \u7684\u4e0d\u5229\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u8be5\u201c\u7c7b\u6ede\u80c0\u201d\uff08stagflationary\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u51fa\u73b0\u589e\u957f\u504f\u5f31\u4e0e\u6210\u672c\/\u7269\u4ef7\u538b\u529b\u504f\u9ad8\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff09\u4fe1\u53f7\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e70\u5165 GBP\/USD \u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u201c\u505a\u7a7a\u7f8e\u5143\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u62bc\u6ce8\u82f1\u9551\u8fd9\u79cd\u66f4\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e38\u89c1\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u4e70\u5165 GBP\/USD \u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff08put options\uff0c\u8d4b\u4e88\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\/\u5230\u671f\u65f6\u4ee5\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u5356\u51fa\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u9632\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u6c47\u4ef7\u53cd\u8f6c\uff1b\u6216\u8fdb\u884c\u76f8\u5bf9\u4ef7\u503c\u4ea4\u6613\uff08relative value trades\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u8d27\u5e01\u4e4b\u95f4\u505a\u5f3a\u5f31\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8ba9\u82f1\u9551\u5bf9\u66f4\u5f3a\u52bf\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u8d70\u5f31\uff08shorting the pound\uff0c\u505a\u7a7a\u82f1\u9551\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u65f6\uff082025 \u5e74\u540c\u5468\uff09\u7f8e\u56fd CPI \u4e0e FOMC \u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u6570\u636e\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u56f4\u7ed5\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u5206\u5316\uff08central bank divergence\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u592e\u884c\u8d70\u5411\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5982\u4e00\u65b9\u504f\u9e70\u6d3e\u52a0\u606f\u3001\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u504f\u9e3d\u6d3e\u964d\u606f\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u4ed3\u4f4d\u5b89\u6392\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u7ecf\u9a8c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3 CPI \u82e5\u610f\u5916\u504f\u79bb 0.2%\uff0cGBP\/USD \u53ef\u80fd\u51e0\u4e4e\u77ac\u95f4\u6ce2\u52a8\u8d85\u8fc7 40 \u70b9\uff08pips\uff0c\u5916\u6c47\u6700\u5c0f\u62a5\u4ef7\u5355\u4f4d\uff1b\u5728 GBP\/USD \u4e2d 1 pip = 0.0001\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u5c11\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7528\u77ed\u671f\u671f\u6743\uff08short-dated options\uff0c\u5230\u671f\u65f6\u95f4\u5f88\u77ed\uff09\u5e76\u8ba9\u5176\u5728\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\u540e\u5230\u671f\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u6355\u6349\u516c\u5e03\u65f6\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u907f\u514d\u628a\u98ce\u9669\u62d6\u5230\u6570\u5468\u4e4b\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n

WTI \u539f\u6cb9\u4ece 106 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u65b9\u8dcc\u81f3 90 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u65b9\uff0c\u662f\u5f53\u65f6\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u63a8\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4e24\u8005\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u8f83\u5f3a\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u573a\u505a\u5bf9\u51b2\uff08hedging\uff0c\u7528\u53e6\u4e00\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u62b5\u6d88\u6f5c\u5728\u4e8f\u635f\uff09\u3002\u4e00\u79cd\u5e38\u89c1\u7ed3\u6784\u662f\uff1a\u6301\u6709 GBP\/USD \u73b0\u8d27\u591a\u5934\uff08spot position\uff0c\u5373\u65f6\u6210\u4ea4\u7684\u6301\u4ed3\uff09\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165 WTI \u671f\u8d27\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5728\u505c\u706b\u7834\u88c2\u3001\u6cb9\u4ef7\u6025\u5347\u65f6\u63d0\u4f9b\u7f13\u51b2\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u65f6\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u6280\u672f\u4f4d\uff08technical levels\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u56fe\u8868\u7684\u652f\u6491\/\u963b\u529b\u7b49\u4ef7\u4f4d\uff09\u5982 1.3480 \u9644\u8fd1\u963b\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u9002\u5408\u8bbe\u8ba1\u671f\u6743\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u770b\u5230\u6bcf\u5468\u671f\u6743\uff08weekly options\uff0c\u5230\u671f\u5728\u4e00\u5468\u5de6\u53f3\uff09\u5728 1.3500 \u884c\u6743\u4ef7\uff08strike price\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4e70\u5356\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08call options\uff0c\u5230\u671f\u65f6\u6709\u6743\u6309\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e70\u5165\uff09\u6210\u4ea4\u6d3b\u8dc3\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u8f83\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u62bc\u6ce8\u6da8\u52bf\u5ef6\u7eed\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c1.3300 \u4e5f\u6210\u4e3a\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\u70ed\u95e8\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u591a\u5934\u4ed3\u4f4d\u7684\u201c\u5730\u677f\u201d\uff08floor\uff0c\u4e0b\u65b9\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f4d\uff09\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u9632\u8303\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u7a81\u7136\u56de\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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