BNY \u7b56\u7565\u5e08 Geoff Yu \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\uff08EUR\uff09\u4ed3\u4f4d\u5df2\u4ece\u51b2\u7a81\u524d\u201c\u5bf9\u51b2\u7f8e\u5143\u201d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff08\u901a\u8fc7\u6301\u6709\u6b27\u5143\u6765\u964d\u4f4e\u7f8e\u5143\u6ce2\u52a8\u5f71\u54cd\uff09\u8f6c\u4e3a\u6574\u4f53\u88ab\u4f4e\u914d\uff08\u5e02\u573a\u6301\u6709\u91cf\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4e00\u822c\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u672a\u6765\u4e24\u5468\u505c\u706b\u80fd\u591f\u7ef4\u6301\uff0c\u5916\u6c47\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u51b2\u7a81\u7206\u53d1\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u201c\u6781\u7aef\u201d\u6ce2\u52a8\u540e\uff0c\u56de\u5230\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u5386\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u6536\u652f\uff08\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u5916\u6536\u652f\u7684\u603b\u8d26\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u8d38\u6613\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u52a8\uff09\u627f\u538b\u4e0b\uff0c\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u8d27\u5e01\u51fa\u73b0\u8d44\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0e\u6ede\u80c0\uff08\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e4f\u529b\u4f46\u901a\u80c0\u504f\u9ad8\uff09\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u53d1\u8fbe\u5e02\u573a\u8d27\u5e01\u4e5f\u88ab\u629b\u552e\u3002\u76f8\u5bf9\u5730\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u76f8\u5173\u8d27\u5e01\u83b7\u5f97\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u66f4\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u8fdb\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u6536\u7d27\uff08\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u6536\u7d27\u91d1\u878d\u6761\u4ef6\u4ee5\u538b\u5236\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
Yu \u5bf9\u6bd4\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u4e0e\u632a\u5a01\uff1a\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u80fd\u6e90\u6210\u672c\u63a8\u9ad8\u6ede\u80c0\u62c5\u5fe7\uff1b\u800c\u632a\u5a01\u53ef\u80fd\u8fce\u6765\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6761\u4ef6\uff08terms of trade\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u4ef7\u683c\u76f8\u5bf9\u8fdb\u53e3\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6539\u5584\u901a\u5e38\u4ee3\u8868\u56fd\u5bb6\u6536\u5165\u589e\u52a0\uff09\u6b63\u5411\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u4ed6\u79f0\u632a\u5a01\u592e\u884c\uff08Norges Bank\uff09\u57fa\u672c\u5df2\u201c\u9884\u5148\u627f\u8bfa\u201d\uff08\u63d0\u524d\u91ca\u653e\u6e05\u6670\u6307\u5f15\uff09\u5c06\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u5f62\u5bb9\u5176\u4e3a\u6b27\u6d32\u552f\u4e00\u5982\u6b64\u660e\u786e\u8868\u6001\u7684\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u592e\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5148\u524d\u201c\u5bf9\u51b2\u7f8e\u5143\u201d\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u56de\u64a4\u5df2\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u4f7f\u6b27\u5143\u5728\u6574\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u5904\u4e8e\u88ab\u4f4e\u914d\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u4ed6\u5c06\u6b64\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u7528\u4e8e\u5bf9\u51b2\u7684\u8fdc\u671f\u6b27\u5143\u4e70\u76d8\u51cf\u5c11\uff08\u8fdc\u671f\u5408\u7ea6\uff1a\u7ea6\u5b9a\u672a\u6765\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u6c47\u7387\u4e70\u5356\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u9501\u5b9a\u6c47\u7387\u98ce\u9669\uff09\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u63a8\u52a8\u66f4\u591a\u5bf9\u51b2\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n
\u9488\u5bf9\u632a\u5a01\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u82e5\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u89c1\u9876\uff0c\u632a\u5a01\u514b\u6717\uff08NOK\uff09\u8d70\u5f3a\u53ef\u80fd\u6682\u505c\u3002\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u6e90\u6536\u5165\u8db3\u4ee5\u8986\u76d6\u653f\u5e9c\u878d\u8d44\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u632a\u5a01\u592e\u884c\u6216\u6062\u590d\u5916\u6c47\u8d2d\u4e70\uff08\u7528\u672c\u5e01\u6362\u5916\u5e01\u4ee5\u589e\u52a0\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\uff09\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9 NOK \u7684\u6301\u4ed3\u4ecd\u662f\u6b27\u6d32\u8d27\u5e01\u4e2d\u6700\u5f3a\u7684\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n
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\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u4e00\u5224\u65ad\uff1a\u6b27\u5143\u533a 2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63 GDP \u4ec5\u589e\u957f 0.2%\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u75b2\u5f31\uff1b\u540c\u65f6 3 \u6708\u901a\u80c0\u964d\u6e29\u81f3 2.1%\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u4e0a\u6708\u5c06\u5173\u952e\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f3 3.75%\uff0c\u6269\u5927\u4e86\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u6839\u636e\u6700\u65b0\u7684 COT \u6301\u4ed3\u62a5\u544a\uff08Commitment of Traders\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u671f\u8d27\u4e0e\u671f\u6743\u6301\u4ed3\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u6765\u89c2\u5bdf\u6295\u673a\u8d44\u91d1\u591a\u7a7a\uff09\uff0c\u6295\u673a\u8d44\u91d1\u5bf9\u6b27\u5143\u7684\u51c0\u7a7a\u4ed3\uff08\u7a7a\u5934\u591a\u4e8e\u591a\u5934\uff09\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u5e74\u591a\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n
\u53e6\u4e00\u8fb9\uff0c\u632a\u5a01\u514b\u6717\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u957f\u671f\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u51c6\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u6bcf\u6876 95 \u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f7f\u632a\u5a01\u592e\u884c\u5f97\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u504f\u9e70\u6d3e\u7acb\u573a\uff08\u503e\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u3001\u6291\u5236\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u7684 4.75% \u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\u3002NOK \u4ecd\u662f G10 \u8d27\u5e01\uff08\u5341\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u8d27\u5e01\uff09\u4e2d\u6700\u62e5\u6324\u7684\u591a\u5934\u4e4b\u4e00\uff08\u5e02\u573a\u5927\u91cf\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a NOK \u7684\u5347\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u5728\u5931\u53bb\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u591a\u5934\u6301\u4ed3\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5df2\u504f\u201c\u62c9\u6ee1\u201d\uff08\u4ed3\u4f4d\u8fc7\u5ea6\u96c6\u4e2d\uff09\u3002\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u51fa\u73b0\u89c1\u9876\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u6216\u653f\u5e9c\u77f3\u6cb9\u6536\u5165\u5927\u5230\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9\u632a\u5a01\u592e\u884c\u91cd\u65b0\u5356\u51fa\u514b\u6717\u4ee5\u6362\u53d6\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\uff08\u589e\u52a0\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\uff09\uff0c\u6da8\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u505c\u6ede\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u6301\u6709 NOK \u591a\u5934\u7684\u4eba\u6784\u6210\u660e\u786e\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5bf9\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u4ef7\u503c\u6765\u81ea\u6c47\u7387\u7b49\u6807\u7684\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u5982\u671f\u6743\u4e0e\u8fdc\u671f\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u683c\u5c40\u610f\u5473\u7740 EUR\/USD \u7684\u865a\u503c\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08out-of-the-money call\uff0c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4e8e\u73b0\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u4f4e\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u884c\u624d\u83b7\u5229\uff09\u5b9a\u4ef7\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u53ef\u62bc\u6ce8\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u201c\u5feb\u901f\u56de\u5f39\u201d\u884c\u60c5\u3002\u9274\u4e8e\u6b27\u5143\u88ab\u4f4e\u914d\u7a0b\u5ea6\u9ad8\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u6b63\u9762\u50ac\u5316\u5242\uff08\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6216\u6570\u636e\uff09\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u89e6\u53d1\u7a7a\u5934\u5feb\u901f\u56de\u8865\uff08\u4e70\u56de\u4ee5\u5e73\u4ed3\uff09\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u6025\u5347\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u671f\u6743\u6210\u672c\u4f4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\u5177\u201c\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6536\u76ca\u201d\uff08\u4e0b\u884c\u635f\u5931\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u95f4\u8f83\u5927\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n
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