{"id":44621,"date":"2026-04-14T16:57:52","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T16:57:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%b8%88%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e5%a2%a8%e8%a5%bf%e5%93%a5%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86%e4%ba%8e5%e6%9c%88%e5%88%9d%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af2\/"},"modified":"2026-04-14T16:57:52","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T16:57:52","slug":"%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%b8%88%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e5%a2%a8%e8%a5%bf%e5%93%a5%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86%e4%ba%8e5%e6%9c%88%e5%88%9d%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%b8%88%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e5%a2%a8%e8%a5%bf%e5%93%a5%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86%e4%ba%8e5%e6%9c%88%e5%88%9d%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af2\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8377\u5170\u5408\u4f5c\u94f6\u884c\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u9884\u8ba1\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u4e8e5\u6708\u521d\u964d\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u5e74\u5e95\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f36.50%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Rabobank 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<\/p>\n<p>\u7eaa\u8981\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51b3\u7b56\u5c06\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u4e0e\u5916\u90e8\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e0e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u51b2\u7a81\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u592e\u884c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u671f\u5185\u8ba9\u603b\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u628a\u6240\u6709\u9879\u76ee\u90fd\u7b97\u8fdb\u53bb\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u56de\u5230 3% \u76ee\u6807\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>Rabobank \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u4f1a\u8bae\u53ec\u5f00\u65f6\uff0c3 \u6708 CPI \u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff09\u5c1a\u672a\u516c\u5e03\u3002\u8be5\u884c\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u5411\u4e0b\u884c\uff08skewed to the 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4.5%\uff0c\u660e\u663e\u9ad8\u4e8e 3% \u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4f7f\u51b3\u7b56\u66f4\u96be\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u9ecf\u6027\uff08stickiness\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u56de\u843d\uff09\u610f\u5473\u7740\u592e\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u9009\u62e9\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\uff08hold rates steady\uff0c\u4e0d\u964d\u606f\uff09\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ee7\u7eed\u964d\u606f\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u66fe\u51fa\u73b0\u7c7b\u4f3c\u60c5\u51b5\uff1a\u901a\u80c0\u610f\u5916\u4e0a\u5347\u540e\uff0c\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u592e\u884c\u6682\u505c\u964d\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff08easing cycle\uff0c\u4e00\u6bb5\u6301\u7eed\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u592e\u884c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8d56\u6570\u636e\uff08data-dependent\uff0c\u4f1a\u968f\u6570\u636e\u6539\u53d8\u7acb\u573a\uff09\uff0c\u82e5\u62c5\u5fc3\u201c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u901a\u80c0\u6548\u5e94\u201d\uff08second-round effects\uff0c\u5373\u521d\u671f\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u5f15\u53d1\u5de5\u8d44\u4e0e\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5546\u54c1\u518d\u6b21\u6da8\u4ef7\uff09\u4fbf\u4e0d\u4f1a\u964d\u606f\u3002\u672a\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5f53\u524d\u7269\u4ef7\u538b\u529b\u53ea\u662f\u77ed\u6682\u73b0\u8c61\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\uff08derivative traders\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u671f\u6743\u3001\u671f\u8d27\u7b49\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u4eba\uff09\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u7eb3\u5165\u201c\u82e5\u964d\u606f\u5219\u6bd4\u7d22\u8d70\u5f31\u201d\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u4e70\u5165 USD\/MXN \u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08call options\uff0c\u7ed9\u4f60\u5728\u5230\u671f\u524d\u4ee5\u7ea6\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5165\u7f8e\u5143\/\u5356\u51fa\u6bd4\u7d22\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff09\u53ef\u5728\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u65f6\u83b7\u5229\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7b56\u7565\u8ba9\u4e0a\u6da8\u6536\u76ca\u7a7a\u95f4\u4fdd\u7559\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u628a\u6700\u5927\u4e8f\u635f\u9501\u5b9a\u5728\u671f\u6743\u6743\u5229\u91d1\uff08premium\uff0c\u4e70\u671f\u6743\u8981\u4ed8\u7684\u8d39\u7528\uff09\u3002  <\/p>\n<p>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u75b2\u5f31\u4e0e\u901a\u80c0\u504f\u9ad8\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6c47\u7387\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08volatility\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u8d77\u4f0f\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u201c\u65e0\u8bba\u6da8\u8dcc\u53ea\u8981\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u201d\u7684\u671f\u6743\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u957f\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08long straddle\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u3001\u540c\u4e00\u6267\u884c\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u62bc\u6ce8 5 \u6708 7 \u65e5\u516c\u5e03\u540e\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u884c\u60c5\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u62a2\u8dd16\u6708\uff01Rabobank\u6599Banxico 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