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\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u94f6\u884c\uff08Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0\u201c\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u8054\u50a8\u201d\uff09\u603b\u88c1\u5965\u65af\u5766\u00b7\u53e4\u5c14\u65af\u6bd4\uff08Austan Goolsbee\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u901a\u80c0\uff08\u7269\u4ef7\u6574\u4f53\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u964d\u606f\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u8fdf\u52302026\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u653f\u7b56\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u52a0\u606f\u3001\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\uff08\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff09\u6216\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5f62\u52bf\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u538b\u529b\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u4e45\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u901a\u80c0\u662f\u5426\u6539\u5584\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u901a\u80c0\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u5bf9\u6539\u5584\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5c31\u4f1a\u88ab\u8feb\u5ef6\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e4\u5c14\u65af\u6bd4\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\uff09\u6b63\u5728\u89c2\u5bdf\u539f\u6cb9\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u71c3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u603b\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\uff08headline inflation\uff1a\u5305\u542b\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\uff08core inflation\uff1a\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff09\u51fa\u73b0\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u9f13\u821e\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u628a\u901a\u80c0\u62c9\u56de2%\u3002\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u901a\u80c0\u57284%\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u5e94\u671f\u5f85\u5229\u7387\u56de\u52302%\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u901a\u80c0\uff08housing inflation\uff1a\u79df\u91d1\u4e0e\u4f4f\u623f\u76f8\u5173\u6210\u672c\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\uff09\u4f20\u6765\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u9047\u5230\u4f9b\u5e94\u51b2\u51fb\uff08supply shock\uff1a\u56e0\u4f9b\u7ed9\u7aef\u5982\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u7269\u6d41\u4e2d\u65ad\u5bfc\u81f4\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\uff08tighten policy\uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u52a0\u606f\u7b49\u8ba9\u91d1\u878d\u6761\u4ef6\u53d8\u7d27\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff1a\u6c11\u4f17\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff09\u4ecd\u4fdd\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u672a\u5931\u63a7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6c7d\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u6da8\u5230\u6bcf\u52a0\u4ed15\u7f8e\u5143\u5e76\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u201c\u5931\u951a\u201d\uff08unanchored\uff1a\u4e0d\u518d\u7a33\u5b9a\u5728\u53ef\u63a7\u8303\u56f4\u3001\u5f00\u59cb\u81ea\u6211\u5f3a\u5316\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c0a\u91cd\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u671f\u5916\u754c\u4f1a\u805a\u7126\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u6cd5\u5b9a\u804c\u8d23\uff08legal mandate\uff1a\u56fd\u4f1a\u8d4b\u4e88\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7a33\u5b9a\u7269\u4ef7\u4e0e\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u4e1a\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u9009\u4e3e\u653f\u6cbb\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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