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\u767d\u94f6\uff08XAG\/USD\uff09\u5468\u4e94\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u622a\u81f3\u53d1\u7a3f\u65f6\u62a5\u7ea679.40\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u65e5\u5185\u4e0a\u6da81.25%\u3002\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u7b56\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u94f6\u4ef7\u7ef4\u6301\u572879\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u4fdd\u6301\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u7b49\u5f85\u6709\u5173\u7f8e\u4f0a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3e\u884c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u4f1a\u8c08\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u7ec6\u8282\u3002\u534e\u76db\u987f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5bf9\u8bdd\u53ef\u80fd\u57284\u670821\u65e5\u3001\u4e3a\u671f\u4e24\u5468\u7684\u505c\u706b\u7ed3\u675f\u524d\u6062\u590d\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5c40\u52bf\u8fdb\u5c55\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u5e02\u573a\u613f\u610f\u627f\u62c5\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff08risk appetite\uff0c\u6307\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u66f4\u504f\u597d\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u6216\u66f4\u4fdd\u5b88\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u5f71\u54cd\u5bf9\u907f\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\uff08safe-haven assets\uff0c\u6307\u5728\u52a8\u8361\u65f6\u671f\u76f8\u5bf9\u4fdd\u503c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u5982\u9ec4\u91d1\u3001\u767d\u94f6\u3001\u7f8e\u5143\u7b49\uff09\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u62a5\u9053\u79f0\uff0c\u4f1a\u8c08\u53ef\u80fd\u6db5\u76d6\u4f0a\u6717\u6838\u8ba1\u5212\uff08nuclear programme\uff0c\u6307\u6838\u6280\u672f\u4e0e\u6838\u6750\u6599\u76f8\u5173\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u6d53\u7f29\u94c0\u5e93\u5b58\uff08enriched uranium stockpiles\uff0c\u6307\u7ecf\u8fc7\u63d0\u7eaf\u3001\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u6838\u80fd\u6216\u6f5c\u5728\u519b\u4e8b\u7528\u9014\u7684\u94c0\u50a8\u5907\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\u7ee7\u7eed\u627f\u538b\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\uff08US Dollar Index\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0DXY\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u5143\u5bf9\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u5f3a\u5f31\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u672c\u5468\u9884\u8ba1\u518d\u5ea6\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u901a\u5e38\u5229\u597d\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8ba1\u4ef7\u7684\u5546\u54c1\uff08dollar-priced commodities\uff0c\u6307\u7528\u7f8e\u5143\u62a5\u4ef7\u7684\u539f\u6750\u6599\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u767d\u94f6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u7f13\u548c\u4e5f\u62d6\u7d2f\u6cb9\u4ef7\uff0c\u5e76\u538b\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff0c\u6307\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7269\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u53ef\u80fd\u8f6c\u5411\u66f4\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\uff08easier policy\uff0c\u6307\u964d\u606f\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u7d27\u7f29\u529b\u5ea6\uff09\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5bf9\u6bd42025\u5e74\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u4e0e2026\u5e74\u73af\u5883<\/h3>\n

\u56de\u987e2025\u5e744\u6708\u540c\u671f\uff0c\u94f6\u4ef7\u66fe\u53cd\u5f39\u81f379\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u6765\u81ea\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u4f0a\u5916\u4ea4\u7a81\u7834\u7684\u671f\u5f85\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f31\u3002\u5730\u7f18\u7d27\u5f20\u7f13\u548c\u540e\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u5bbd\u677e\u7acb\u573a\uff08more accommodative Federal Reserve\uff0c\u6307\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u964d\u606f\u6216\u653e\u6162\u52a0\u606f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5e02\u573a\u671f\u5f85\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8f6c\u201c\u9e3d\u201d\uff08dovish pivot\uff0c\u6307\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4ece\u504f\u7d27\u8f6c\u5411\u504f\u5bbd\u677e\uff09\u5e76\u672a\u771f\u6b63\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u901a\u80c0\u4f9d\u7136\u987d\u56fa\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff08Consumer Price Index\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0CPI\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u4e00\u7bee\u5b50\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u53cd\u6620\u901a\u80c0\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u663e\u793a\uff0c2026\u5e743\u6708\u901a\u80c0\u540c\u6bd4\uff08year-over-year\uff0c\u6307\u4e0e\u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u6708\u76f8\u6bd4\uff09\u7ef4\u6301\u57283.8%\uff0c\u660e\u663e\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u62ac\u9ad8\u6301\u6709\u767d\u94f6\u7b49\u65e0\u5229\u606f\u6536\u76ca\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u7f8e\u5143\u5f3a\u52bf\u4e0e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u504f\u201c\u9e70\u201d\uff08hawkish Fed\uff0c\u6307\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u7ef4\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u6216\u7ee7\u7eed\u7d27\u7f29\u4ee5\u538b\u5236\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff08derivative traders\uff0c\u6307\u4ea4\u6613\u671f\u6743\u3001\u671f\u8d27\u7b49\u201c\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u201d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff09\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u533a\u95f4\u884c\u60c5\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u73b0\u6709\u6301\u4ed3\u4e0a\u5356\u51fa\u4ef7\u5916\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08selling out-of-the-money call options\uff0c\u6307\u5356\u51fa\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u4ee5\u6536\u53d6\u6743\u5229\u91d1\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u4f7f\u7528\u718a\u5e02\u770b\u6da8\u4ef7\u5dee\uff08bear call spreads\uff0c\u6307\u5356\u51fa\u8f83\u4f4e\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\u3001\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u8f83\u9ad8\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u6765\u83b7\u53d6\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7b56\u7565\u4e3b\u8981\u8d5a\u53d6\u65f6\u95f4\u4ef7\u503c\u8870\u51cf\uff08time decay\uff0c\u6307\u671f\u6743\u4e34\u8fd1\u5230\u671f\u65f6\u4ef7\u503c\u81ea\u7136\u51cf\u5c11\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u57fa\u4e8e\u5b8f\u89c2\u538b\u529b\u9650\u5236\u4e0a\u884c\u7a7a\u95f4\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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