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TD Securities \u7684 Daniel Ghali \u5c06\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e0e\u6240\u8c13\u201c\u9738\u6743\u4ea4\u6613\u201d\uff08Hegemon trade\uff09\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5b9e\u529b\u4e0e\u8d22\u653f\u80fd\u5426\u957f\u671f\u7ef4\u6301\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u770b\u6cd5\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7f8e\u5143\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u4ef7\u503c\u50a8\u5b58\u201d\uff08store of value\uff0c\u6307\u8d44\u4ea7\u80fd\u5426\u5728\u957f\u671f\u4fdd\u503c\u3001\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8f7b\u6613\u8d2c\u503c\uff09\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u89c2\u611f\uff0c\u4f1a\u5de6\u53f3\u6d77\u5916\u503a\u6743\u4eba\uff08foreign creditors\uff0c\u6307\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u5916\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u673a\u6784\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff09\u3001\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5224\u65ad\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u5426\u7ef4\u6301\u5176\u201c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u7279\u6743\u201d\uff08exorbitant privilege\uff0c\u6307\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u7528\u672c\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u5168\u7403\u501f\u94b1\u3001\u8fdb\u53e3\u4e0e\u878d\u8d44\uff0c\u5e76\u4eab\u6709\u8f83\u4f4e\u878d\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u5f62\u5bb9\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u201c\u8d2c\u503c\u4ea4\u6613\u201d\uff08debasement trade\uff0c\u6307\u5e02\u573a\u62c5\u5fc3\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u88ab\u7a00\u91ca\u3001\u8d27\u5e01\u201c\u53d8\u8584\u201d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8f6c\u5411\u8d35\u91d1\u5c5e\u7b49\u4fdd\u503c\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4e3b\u9898\uff09\u6700\u660e\u663e\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u8d35\u91d1\u5c5e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u793a\u8fd9\u4e24\u6761\u4e3b\u9898\u90fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u50a8\u5b58\u529f\u80fd\u6709\u5173\u3002\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\uff0c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff08geopolitical staying power\uff0c\u6307\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u535a\u5f08\u4e2d\u7ef4\u6301\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff09\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u634d\u536b\u7f8e\u5143\u4fdd\u503c\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9738\u6743\u4ea4\u6613\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u50a8\u5b58<\/h3>\n

Ghali \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u5f53\u524d\u5904\u4e8e\u201c\u8d27\u5e01\u9632\u536b\u201d\uff08currency defence\uff0c\u6307\u653f\u5e9c\u6216\u592e\u884c\u4e3a\u7a33\u5b9a\u672c\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u6c47\u7387\u4e0e\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\uff0c\u52a8\u7528\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u3001\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u5b9e\u65bd\u7ba1\u5236\u7b49\u63aa\u65bd\uff09\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u201c\u5168\u9762\u80dc\u5229\u201d\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u9ec4\u91d1\u504f\u5229\u7a7a\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u4e70\u91d1\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5404\u56fd\u66f4\u4f18\u5148\u4fdd\u969c\u80fd\u6e90\u8fdb\u53e3\u3001\u7a33\u5b9a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u6c47\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u628a\u50a8\u5907\u5206\u6563\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u9ec4\u91d1\uff08reserve diversification\uff0c\u6307\u51cf\u5c11\u96c6\u4e2d\u6301\u6709\u5355\u4e00\u8d44\u4ea7\u5982\u7f8e\u5143\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u8f6c\u5411\u9ec4\u91d1\u7b49\u4e0d\u540c\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ee5\u5206\u6563\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u8d27\u5e01\u9632\u536b\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u51fa\u73b0\u5bf9\u76f8\u5173\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u505c\u706b\uff08unfavourable ceasefire\uff0c\u6307\u505c\u706b\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0d\u7406\u60f3\u3001\u524a\u5f31\u5176\u8c08\u5224\u5730\u4f4d\u6216\u7ecf\u6d4e\u627f\u53d7\u529b\uff09\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u52a8\u9ec4\u91d1\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6bb5\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u4ed6\u628a\u8fd9\u4e0e\u5404\u56fd\u52a0\u5feb\u628a\u50a8\u5907\u8f6c\u5411\u9ec4\u91d1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e02\u573a\u91cd\u65b0\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e9e\u5927\u503a\u52a1\u538b\u529b\uff08debt overhang\uff0c\u6307\u503a\u52a1\u89c4\u6a21\u8fc7\u5927\u3001\u62d6\u7d2f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u8d22\u653f\u7a7a\u95f4\uff09\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u4f7f\u7528 AI \u5de5\u5177\u5236\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u7f16\u8f91\u5ba1\u6838\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6301\u4ed3\u4e0e\u671f\u6743\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n

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\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u51e0\u5468\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9ec4\u91d1\u671f\u8d27\uff08gold futures\uff0c\u6307\u7ea6\u5b9a\u672a\u6765\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5356\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u7acb\u573a\u504f\u5229\u7a7a\u5230\u4e2d\u6027\u8f83\u5408\u9002\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u4e70\u5165\u77ed\u671f\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff08short-dated put options\uff0cput \u4e3a\u201c\u8dcc\u4ef7\u4fdd\u62a4\/\u770b\u8dcc\u201d\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff1b\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u5f53\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u65f6\u589e\u503c\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u5bf9\u51b2\u4e8f\u635f\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u9632\u4e00\u65e6\u51fa\u73b0\u5bf9\u897f\u65b9\u6709\u5229\u7684\u505c\u706b\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u9ec4\u91d1\u671f\u6743\u7684\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08implied volatility\uff0c\u6307\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff09\u5df2\u964d\u81f3\u7ea6 14%\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u8f83\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e5f\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fdd\u62a4\u6027\u4ed3\u4f4d\u7684\u6210\u672c\u66f4\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u5728\u4e8e\u201c\u8d27\u5e01\u9632\u536b\u201d\u53ef\u80fd\u5931\u6548\u3002\u82e5\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u8c08\u5224\u51fa\u73b0\u5bf9\u76f8\u5173\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u505c\u706b\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u6216\u5e02\u573a\u770b\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\uff08geopolitical influence\uff0c\u6307\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u80fd\u529b\uff09\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f6e\u5927\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u89e6\u53d1\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u7c7b\u4f3c\u60c5\u51b5\u5728 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\uff1a\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6cbb\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e0b\u6ed1\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0e\u9ec4\u91d1\u8131\u94a9\uff08de-linked\uff0c\u6307\u4e0d\u518d\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u89c4\u5219\u628a\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0e\u9ec4\u91d1\u5151\u6362\u6302\u94a9\uff09\u5f15\u53d1\u91d1\u4ef7\u5927\u5e45\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u4e70\u5165\u8f83\u957f\u671f\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08longer-dated call options\uff0ccall \u4e3a\u201c\u770b\u6da8\u201d\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff1b\u5728\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u65f6\u83b7\u5229\uff09\u6765\u5e03\u5c40\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u662f 2026 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u4e0e 12 \u6708\u5408\u7ea6\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u4f4e\u4f30\u8fd9\u79cd\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u66f4\u5173\u6ce8\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff08Federal Reserve\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\uff09\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u52a8\u4f5c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\u5360 GDP \u6bd4\u4f8b\uff08debt-to-GDP ratio\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u503a\u52a1\u76f8\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff09\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u9884\u7b97\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\uff08CBO, Congressional Budget Office\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b98\u65b9\u9884\u7b97\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u673a\u6784\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8be5\u6bd4\u4f8b\u521a\u8d85\u8fc7 125%\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u60c5\u7eea\u8f6c\u5411\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ed3\u4f4d\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u53ef\u89c2\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5404\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u901f\u628a\u50a8\u5907\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u503a\u52a1\u8d44\u4ea7\u5206\u6563\u51fa\u53bb\uff0c\u8f6c\u5411\u9ec4\u91d1\u7b49\u66f4\u5177\u4fdd\u503c\u5c5e\u6027\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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