{"id":45327,"date":"2026-04-22T20:22:59","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T20:22:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e6%a0%87%e6%99%ae500%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b0%e5%bc%80%e7%9b%98%e8%a1%a8%e7%8e%b0%e7%a8%b3%e5%81%a5%ef%bc%8c%e5%87%af%e6%96%87%c2%b7%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%ef%bc%88kevin-warsh%ef%bc%89%e5%87%ba%e5%b8%ad%e5%90%ac\/"},"modified":"2026-04-22T20:22:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T20:22:59","slug":"%e6%a0%87%e6%99%ae500%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b0%e5%bc%80%e7%9b%98%e8%a1%a8%e7%8e%b0%e7%a8%b3%e5%81%a5%ef%bc%8c%e5%87%af%e6%96%87%c2%b7%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%ef%bc%88kevin-warsh%ef%bc%89%e5%87%ba%e5%b8%ad%e5%90%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e6%a0%87%e6%99%ae500%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b0%e5%bc%80%e7%9b%98%e8%a1%a8%e7%8e%b0%e7%a8%b3%e5%81%a5%ef%bc%8c%e5%87%af%e6%96%87%c2%b7%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%ef%bc%88kevin-warsh%ef%bc%89%e5%87%ba%e5%b8%ad%e5%90%ac\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u5f00\u76d8\u8868\u73b0\u7a33\u5065\uff0c\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\u51fa\u5e2d\u542c\u8bc1\u53ca\u505c\u706b\u671f\u9650\u5c4a\u6ee1\u4ee4\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u5347\u6e29"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\uff08S&P 500\uff09\u5728\u5f00\u76d8\u65f6\u4ecd\u7136\u7ad9\u7a33\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u9047\u5230\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a\u4e00\u573a\u6d89\u53ca\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\u7684\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u4f0a\u6717\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4e24\u5468\u505c\u706b\u671f\u5230\u671f\u3002\u505c\u706b\u5230\u671f\u540e\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u518d\u5ea6\u51fa\u73b0\u654c\u5bf9\u8a00\u8bba\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5c01\u9501\u63aa\u65bd\u4ecd\u5728\u6267\u884c\uff0c\u800c\u4f0a\u6717\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u5165\u8c08\u5224\u3002<\/p>\n

\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u56f4\u7ed5\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u8fd0\u8f93\u54bd\u5589\u8981\u9053\uff09\u66f4\u5f3a\u786c\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e86\u5468\u4e94\u4f0a\u6717\u4ee3\u8868\u5148\u524d\u8f83\u201c\u5b89\u629a\u5e02\u573a\u201d\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u3002\u4e5f\u6709\u62a5\u9053\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u65b0\u7206\u53d1\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u51c6\u5907\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5e94\u4e0e\u6807\u9898\u98ce\u9669<\/h3>\n

\u6c83\u4ec0\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e8b\u5148\u5e76\u672a\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u76d8\u4e2d\u56e0\u6b64\u8f6c\u5411\u201c\u907f\u9669\u201d\uff08risk-off\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u51cf\u5c11\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u5982\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u8f6c\u5411\u7f8e\u5143\u3001\u56fd\u503a\u7b49\u76f8\u5bf9\u5b89\u5168\u8d44\u4ea7\uff09\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u8c08\u5224\u5e76\u672a\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ba3\u5e03\u5355\u65b9\u9762\u5ef6\u957f\u505c\u706b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u51e0\u5206\u949f\u5185\u8f6c\u56de\u201c\u504f\u597d\u98ce\u9669\u201d\uff08risk-on\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u56de\u5230\u80a1\u7968\u7b49\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\uff09\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u6536\u76d8\u65f6\u4ecd\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u65e9\u524d\u201c\u907f\u9669\u201d\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u5927\u7ea6\u4e00\u534a\u6da8\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u8bb0\u5f97\u53bb\u5e74\uff082025\u5e74\uff09\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u66fe\u56e0\u4f0a\u6717\u4e0e\u505c\u706b\u5ef6\u957f\u7b49\u65b0\u95fb\u53cd\u590d\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570\u751a\u81f3\u4f1a\u56e0\u4e3a\u603b\u7edf\u4e00\u53e5\u8bdd\uff0c\u5728\u51e0\u5206\u949f\u5185\u5c31\u53cd\u8f6c\u3002\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u5728\u201c\u975e\u6218\u3001\u975e\u548c\u201d\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u4e2d\uff0c\u201c\u6807\u9898\u98ce\u9669\u201d\uff08headline risk\uff0c\u6307\u65b0\u95fb\u6807\u9898\u89e6\u53d1\u7684\u77ed\u7ebf\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u5f71\u54cd\u65e5\u5185\u8d70\u52bf\u7684\u9996\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7d27\u5f20\u683c\u5c40\u5982\u4eca\u518d\u5ea6\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\u62a5\u9053\u79f0\uff0c\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u9644\u8fd1\u6d77\u519b\u529b\u91cf\u5728\u96c6\u7ed3\uff0c\u6cb9\u8f6e\uff08tanker\uff09\u901a\u884c\u91cf\u636e\u62a5\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e24\u5468\u653e\u7f13\u8d85\u8fc710%\u3002\u8fd9\u8ba9\u4eba\u8054\u60f3\u52302025\u5e74\u66fe\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5c01\u9501\u624b\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u79cd\u7d27\u5f20\u5df2\u7ecf\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4e0a\uff1aWTI\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8d27\uff08WTI crude futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u897f\u5fb7\u5dde\u4e2d\u8d28\u539f\u6cb9\u4e3a\u6807\u7684\u7684\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u5b88\u5728\u6bcf\u687692\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u65b9\u3002CBOE\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6307\u6570\uff08VIX\uff0c\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6570\u201d\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff09\u4e5f\u4ece\u5341\u591a\u4e2a\u70b9\u5347\u81f321\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u521b\u4eca\u5e74\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd9\u663e\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u5f00\u59cb\u4e70\u5165\u201c\u4fdd\u62a4\u201d\uff08protection\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6307\u7528\u671f\u6743\u7b49\u5de5\u5177\u505a\u9632\u62a4\uff09\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u6f5c\u5728\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed3\u4f4d\u4e0e\u5bf9\u51b2\u65b9\u5f0f<\/h3>\n

\u8003\u8651\u52302025\u5e74\u90a3\u79cd\u7a81\u7136\u53cd\u8f6c\u7684\u8bb0\u5fc6\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u7528\u671f\u8d27\uff08futures\uff0c\u7ea6\u5b9a\u672a\u6765\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u4e70\u5356\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u505a\u5355\u5411\u62bc\u6ce8\u98ce\u9669\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u6539\u7528\u671f\u6743\uff08options\uff0c\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e70\u5356\u6743\u5229\u800c\u975e\u4e49\u52a1\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u53bb\u4e70\u201c\u6ce2\u52a8\u201d\uff08buying volatility\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728SPY\u6216QQQ\u4e0a\u4e70\u5165\u201c\u5e73\u503c\u8de8\u5f0f\u201d\uff08at-the-money straddle\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u540c\u4e00\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff09\u3002\u8be5\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u4e0a\u6da8\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u65f6\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5229\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u9632\u8303\u7a81\u7136\u7684\u201c\u504f\u597d\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u6216\u201c\u907f\u9669\u201d\u5207\u6362\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u5df2\u7ecf\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u591a\u5934\u4ed3\u4f4d\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u5173\u952e\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u65f6\u70b9\u3002\u4e70\u5165\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6570\u7684\u201c\u865a\u503c\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\u201d\uff08out-of-the-money put\uff0c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u4f4e\u4e8e\u73b0\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff09\u53ef\u4f5c\u4e3a\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u4fdd\u9669\uff0c\u5e94\u5bf9\u6025\u8dcc\u3002\u4e5f\u53ef\u7528\u201c\u770b\u8dcc\u501f\u65b9\u4ef7\u5dee\u201d\uff08put debit spread\uff0c\u7528\u8f83\u9ad8\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u4e70\u5165\u770b\u8dcc\u3001\u540c\u65f6\u7528\u8f83\u4f4e\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u5356\u51fa\u770b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u5e76\u9650\u5b9a\u6700\u5927\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u6765\u964d\u4f4e\u4fdd\u62a4\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5e76\u628a\u98ce\u9669\u8303\u56f4\u56fa\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u573a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u4e0a\u6708CPI\uff08\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u6570\u636e\u7565\u504f\u70ed\uff0c\u8fbe3.2%\uff0c\u4f7f\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff09\u4eca\u5e74\u7a0d\u540e\u7684\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\u66f4\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u6c83\u4ec0\u542c\u8bc1\u4f1a\u57282025\u5e74\u5e26\u6765\u60ac\u800c\u672a\u51b3\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u56de\u843d\u4e0d\u987a\uff08\u901a\u80c0\u201c\u9ecf\u6027\u201d\uff0c\u6307\u901a\u80c0\u8f83\u96be\u964d\u4e0b\u53bb\uff09\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u6b27\u5143\u5df2\u5347\u81f3\u516d\u5468\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u8d44\u91d1\u6b63\u6084\u6084\u8f6c\u5411\u907f\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u6807\u666e500\u53d7\u6c83\u4ec0\u542c\u8bc1\u4e0e\u4f0a\u6717\u505c\u706b\u5230\u671f\u6405\u5c40\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u77ac\u53d8\uff1b\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u7d27\u5f20\u63a8\u9ad8\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4e0eVIX\u3002\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5b9c\u7528\u671f\u6743\u4e70\u6ce2\u52a8\u3001\u90e8\u7f72\u770b\u8dcc\u5bf9\u51b2\uff0c\u9632\u6807\u9898\u98ce\u9669\u7a81\u88ad\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45327","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45327"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45327\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45327"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45327"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45327"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}