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Generale\uff09\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u4e0b\u5468\u5c06\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u65b0\u589e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5c40\u52bf\u4ecd\u5728\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u6599\u5c06\u8f6c\u5411\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u671f\uff08\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5e74\uff09\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u8d70\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u884c\u76ee\u524d\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u6709\u4e24\u6b21\u540425\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff08bp\uff0c0.25\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff09\u7684\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u57286\u6708\u4e0e9\u6708\u3002\u5e76\u9884\u6d4b2027\u5e74\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u4e3a2.6%\u3002\uff08\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\uff1a\u5254\u9664\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u98df\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u540e\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u957f\u671f\u7269\u4ef7\u538b\u529b\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<h3>\u653f\u7b56\u5c55\u671b\u4e0e\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387<\/h3>\n<p>\u9884\u8ba1\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u201c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u533a\u95f4\u201d\uff08neutral range\uff09\u7684\u4e0a\u6cbf\u9644\u8fd1\u3002\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6307\u65e2\u4e0d\u523a\u6fc0\u3001\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6291\u5236\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8be5\u884c\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u9762\u4e34\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669\uff08\u589e\u957f\u53ef\u80fd\u504f\u5f31\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u4ecd\u672a\u6d88\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u884c\u628a\u8fd9\u4e00\u5224\u65ad\u4e0e\u591a\u9879\u56e0\u7d20\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u6c11\u95f4\u90e8\u95e8\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u72b6\u51b5\uff08\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e0e\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3001\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u8d1f\u503a\u60c5\u51b5\uff09\u3001\u8ba1\u5212\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI\uff09\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5fb7\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\uff08\u653f\u5e9c\u589e\u52a0\u652f\u51fa\u6216\u51cf\u7a0e\u4ee5\u5e26\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u201c\u4e0d\u5229\u60c5\u5883\u201d\uff08adverse scenario\uff0c\u4e0d\u597d\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u60c5\u666f\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u57282027\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\uff081Q27\uff09\u5347\u81f3\u7ea62.8%\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u8be5\u884c\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u5df2\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4e24\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u4e4b\u5916\u8fd8\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u201c\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u201d\uff08\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u7a81\u7136\u52a0\u901f\u6216\u53cd\u8f6c\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u201c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u5f71\u54cd\u201d\uff08second-round effects\uff1a\u901a\u80c0\u63a8\u5347\u5de5\u8d44\u3001\u5de5\u8d44\u518d\u63a8\u5347\u7269\u4ef7\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u6548\u5e94\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u884c\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u56e0\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u5982\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\uff09\u800c\u6301\u7eed\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a8\u9ad8\u5de5\u8d44\u538b\u529b\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u201c\u96c7\u4e3b\u514d\u7a0e\u5956\u91d1\u201d\u7b49\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u63a8\u9ad8\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u901f\u3002\uff08\u514d\u7a0e\u96c7\u4e3b\u5956\u91d1\uff1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u53d1\u653e\u7ed9\u5458\u5de5\u3001\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u53ef\u4eab\u7a0e\u52a1\u4f18\u60e0\u7684\u5956\u91d1\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<h3>\u5e02\u573a\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0e\u4ea4\u6613\u7126\u70b9<\/h3>\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u65b0\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u4e0b\u5468\u4f1a\u8bae\u5927\u6982\u7387\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u671f\u6743\uff08\u4ee5\u5229\u7387\u4e3a\u6807\u7684\u7684\u671f\u6743\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u6240\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u201c\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u201d\uff08implied volatility\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4e3a\u5356\u51fa\u8fd1\u6708\u7684\u671f\u6743\u65f6\u95f4\u4ef7\u503c\uff08near-dated premium\uff1a\u77ed\u671f\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u6ea2\u4ef7\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u7126\u70b9\u5c06\u8f6c\u5411\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u524d\u666f\u4e0e\u4ecd\u504f\u9ad8\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u5df2\u4ece2025\u5e743\u6708\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u5e76\u4f1a\u91ca\u653e\u672a\u6765\u884c\u52a8\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4ece6\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u52a0\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u201c\u8c08\u5224\u5de5\u8d44\u8ffd\u8e2a\u6307\u6807\u201d\uff08negotiated wage tracker\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u96c6\u4f53\u8c08\u5224\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u6570\u636e\uff09\u663e\u793a\uff0c2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u4e3a4.5%\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\uff08derivative markets\uff1a\u671f\u8d27\u3001\u671f\u6743\u3001\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u6362\u7b49\u5408\u7ea6\u5e02\u573a\uff09\u5e94\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bf96\u6708\u4e0e9\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4f7f\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u7684\u8fdc\u671f\u5229\u7387\u534f\u8bae\uff08FRA\uff0cforward rate agreement\uff1a\u9501\u5b9a\u672a\u6765\u67d0\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u4e0a\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u6b63\u5728\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u52a8\u529b\u6765\u81ea\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d22\u52a1\u72b6\u51b5\u7a33\u5065\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9AI\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u6b27\u76df\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\uff08Eurostat\uff09\u5bf92026\u5e743\u6708\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u201c\u5feb\u901f\u4f30\u7b97\u201d\uff08flash estimate\uff1a\u521d\u503c\u6570\u636e\uff09\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u9ecf\u7740\u57282.9%\uff08sticky\uff1a\u4e0b\u964d\u7f13\u6162\u3001\u96be\u4ee5\u56de\u843d\uff09\uff0c\u660e\u663e\u9ad8\u4e8e\u592e\u884c\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u6302\u94a9\u4e92\u6362\uff08inflation-linked swaps\uff1a\u4e0e\u901a\u80c0\u6c34\u5e73\u6216\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6570\u6302\u94a9\u7684\u4e92\u6362\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u53ef\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7528\u6765\u5bf9\u51b2\uff08hedge\uff1a\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u6216\u62bc\u6ce8\uff08speculate\uff1a\u6295\u673a\uff09\u201c\u901a\u80c0\u5728\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u7ef4\u6301\u504f\u9ad8\u201d\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u53ef\u80fd\u57282027\u5e74\u521d\u63a5\u8fd12.8%\u89c1\u9876\uff0c\u4f46\u9274\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u4f1a\u4fdd\u6301\u8c28\u614e\u3002\u56de\u987e2025\u5e74\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5e0c\u671b\u907f\u514d\u91cd\u6f142021-22\u5468\u671f\u7684\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u66f4\u65e9\u884c\u52a8\u6765\u9884\u9632\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5e73\u8861\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5230\u6765\uff0c\u4f46\u4f1a\u63d0\u524d\u91ca\u653e\u6e05\u6670\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u5bf9\u672c\u5df2\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7d27\u5f20\u53ef\u80fd\u8feb\u4f7f\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u5728\u8f83\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u7ef4\u6301\u201c\u9650\u5236\u6027\u201d\uff08restrictive\uff1a\u504f\u7d27\u3001\u6291\u5236\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u901a\u80c0\u7684\uff09\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6b27\u5143\u533a2026\u5e744\u6708\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\uff08\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u6307\u6570\uff1a\u53cd\u6620\u666f\u6c14\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u6307\u6807\uff1b50\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6269\u5f20\u300150\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6536\u7f29\uff09\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u6536\u7f29\u533a\u95f4\u768446.5\uff0c\u4f46\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u6784\u56e0\u7d20\u6b63\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u957f\u671f\u5de5\u8d44\u538b\u529b\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5e94\u9884\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u66f4\u8d8b\u5e73\u5766\uff08flatter yield curve\uff1a\u77ed\u671f\u4e0e\u957f\u671f\u5229\u7387\u5dee\u8ddd\u7f29\u5c0f\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u628a\u957f\u671f\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8ba1\u5165\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\u5f00\u8bbeVT Markets\u771f\u5b9e\u8d26\u6237<\/a>\u00a0\u5e76\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">\u7acb\u5373\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea4\u6613<\/a>\u3002 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