{"id":45556,"date":"2026-04-24T21:57:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T21:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e9%87%8e%e6%9d%91%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e8%8b%b1%e5%9b%bd%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e5%9c%a83-75%ef%bc%8c%e5%b0%bd%e7%ae%a1%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e5%bf%a7%e8%99%91\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T21:57:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T21:57:00","slug":"%e9%87%8e%e6%9d%91%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e8%8b%b1%e5%9b%bd%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e5%9c%a83-75%ef%bc%8c%e5%b0%bd%e7%ae%a1%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e5%bf%a7%e8%99%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e9%87%8e%e6%9d%91%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e8%8b%b1%e5%9b%bd%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86%e7%bb%b4%e6%8c%81%e5%88%a9%e7%8e%87%e5%9c%a83-75%ef%bc%8c%e5%b0%bd%e7%ae%a1%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e5%bf%a7%e8%99%91\/","title":{"rendered":"\u91ce\u6751\u9884\u8ba1\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u57283.75%\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u80fd\u6e90\u5fe7\u8651\u5347\u6e29\uff1bPill\u6210\u552f\u4e00\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\uff0c\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c8\u6bd41"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u91ce\u6751\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\uff08Bank of England\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\uff09\u5c06\u5728\u4e0b\u5468\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08MPC\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u51b3\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7684\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff09\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c\u628a\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\uff08Bank Rate\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u5411\u592e\u884c\u501f\u94b1\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7ef4\u6301\u57283.75%\u4e0d\u53d8\u3002\u91ce\u6751\u9884\u8ba1\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\u4e3a8\u7968\u8d5e\u6210\u7ef4\u6301\u30011\u7968\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4f11\u00b7\u76ae\u5c14\uff08Huw Pill\uff09\u5c06\u6295\u7968\u652f\u6301\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e0e\u6700\u65b0\u9884\u6d4b\u5c06\u4e8e\u4e0b\u5468\u56db\u4e2d\u5348\u516c\u5e03\u3002\u91ce\u6751\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\u4f1a\u5728\u53d1\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u7ed9\u51fa\u66f4\u660e\u786e\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6307\u5f15\uff08guidance\uff0c\u5373\u592e\u884c\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u8bf4\u660e\uff09\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5c06\u663e\u793a\u901a\u80c0\u66f4\u9ad8\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7565\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n

Nomura View On The Upcoming Decision<\/h3>\n

\u91ce\u6751\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u52302027\u5e74\u5e95\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u63d0\u9192\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u5e03\u4e0d\u5747\uff1a\u77ed\u671f\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u52a0\u606f\u610f\u5916\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u624d\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u62bc\u6ce8\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u4f1a\u52a0\u606f\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e24\u6b21\u3002\u4f46\u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u663e\u793a\uff0c4\u670830\u65e5\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u53ea\u6709\u7ea62\u20133\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff08bp\uff0c\u57fa\u70b9\uff1b1bp=0.01\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u968f\u7740\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e34\u8fd1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u5176\u5c06\u628a\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u76844.25%\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u518d\u6b21\u62bc\u6ce8\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\uff08tighter policy\uff0c\u5373\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u51cf\u5c11\u523a\u6fc0\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e0e\u592e\u884c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u51fa\u73b0\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n

Trading Implications For Rates Volatility<\/h3>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u57282025\u5e74\u6625\u5b63\u89c1\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u60c5\u51b5\uff1a\u5f53\u65f6\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u4e3a3.75%\uff0c\u4f46\u5e02\u573a\u62bc\u6ce8\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u591a\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u3002MPC\u5f53\u65f6\u4ecd\u575a\u6301\u4e0d\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u91ca\u653e\u51fa\u660e\u786e\u8baf\u53f7\uff1a\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u75b2\u5f31\u65f6\u4e0d\u613f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7d27\u3002\u90a3\u6bb5\u65f6\u671f\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a5\u53d7\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u504f\u6fc0\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4e0d\u540c\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u524d\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6301\u7ee7\u7eed\u6682\u505c\uff1a\u82f1\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\uff08ONS\uff09\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u6240\u6709\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u964d\u81f32.8%\uff0c\u4f46\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\uff08core inflation\uff0c\u5254\u9664\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u4e0e\u80fd\u6e90\u540e\uff09\u4ecd\u987d\u56fa\u9ad8\u4e8e\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08Q1 GDP\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u603b\u91cf\uff09\u589e\u957f\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u4ec50.2%\uff0c\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u96be\u4ee5\u627f\u53d7\u66f4\u9ad8\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\uff08borrowing costs\uff0c\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u878d\u8d44\u6210\u672c\uff09\u201d\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u901a\u80c0\u9ecf\u6027\uff08sticky inflation\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u4e0e\u589e\u957f\u505c\u6ede\u5e76\u5b58\uff0c\u8ba9MPC\u5904\u5883\u66f4\u56f0\u96be\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5728\u5229\u7387\u5e02\u573a\u5356\u51fa\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08selling near-term volatility\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7b56\u7565\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u6765\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u6ce2\u52a8\u53d8\u5c0f\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5408\u9002\u3002\u82e5\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\u5927\u6982\u7387\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\uff0c\u77ed\u671fSONIA\u671f\u8d27\uff08SONIA futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u82f1\u9551\u9694\u591c\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u5747\u5229\u7387SONIA\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff09\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff08options\uff0c\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e70\u5356\u6743\u5229\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u504f\u8d35\u3002\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u52a8\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5356\u51fa\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08short straddle\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5356\u51fa\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u3001\u540c\u4e00\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u6ce2\u52a8\u53d8\u5c0f\uff09\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u98ce\u9669\u5e76\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\uff1a\u77ed\u671f\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u201c\u9e70\u6d3e\u610f\u5916\u201d\uff08hawkish surprise\uff0c\u5373\u592e\u884c\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u66f4\u5f3a\u786c\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u5e74\u5185\u540e\u6bb5\u624d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u964d\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e70\u5165\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u4ef7\u5916\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff08out-of-the-money call options\uff0c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4e8e\u73b0\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u4f4e\uff09\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u51b2\uff08hedge\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u964d\u4f4e\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u66f4\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u53ef\u9632\u8303\u592e\u884c\u4e3a\u5e94\u5bf9\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u901a\u80c0\u6548\u5e94\uff08second-round effects\uff0c\u5de5\u8d44\u4e0e\u6210\u672c\u63a8\u52a8\u7269\u4ef7\u518d\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\uff09\u800c\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u5f3a\u786c\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u82f1\u4f26\u94f6\u884c\u88ab\u8feb\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u9700\u8981\u540e\u6765\u64a4\u56de\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u52a8\u4f5c\u30022026\u5e74\u540e\u6bb5\u62162027\u5e74\u521d\u51fa\u73b0\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\uff08policy pivot\uff0c\u4ece\u52a0\u606f\u503e\u5411\u8f6c\u4e3a\u964d\u606f\u6216\u66f4\u5bbd\u677e\uff09\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u957f\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u671f\u6743\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u65e5\u5386\u4ef7\u5dee\uff08calendar spreads\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u7684\u671f\u6743\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0d\u540c\u671f\u9650\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u6765\u8868\u8fbe\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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