{"id":45571,"date":"2026-04-25T02:35:27","date_gmt":"2026-04-25T02:35:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%9a%84%e6%96%af%e7%89%b9%e5%87%a1%c2%b7%e5%ba%93%e6%99%ae%e6%9b%bc%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%b1%e5%9b%bd%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e8%b4%a7\/"},"modified":"2026-04-25T02:35:27","modified_gmt":"2026-04-25T02:35:27","slug":"%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%9a%84%e6%96%af%e7%89%b9%e5%87%a1%c2%b7%e5%ba%93%e6%99%ae%e6%9b%bc%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%b1%e5%9b%bd%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e8%b4%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/%e8%8d%b7%e5%85%b0%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%93%b6%e8%a1%8c%e7%9a%84%e6%96%af%e7%89%b9%e5%87%a1%c2%b7%e5%ba%93%e6%99%ae%e6%9b%bc%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%ef%bc%8c%e8%8b%b1%e5%9b%bd%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e8%b4%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8377\u5170\u5408\u4f5c\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u65af\u7279\u51e1\u00b7\u5e93\u666e\u66fc\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5c06\u628a\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u57283.75%\uff0c\u5e76\u57284\u6708\u4fdd\u6301\u8b66\u60d5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u8377\u5170\u5408\u4f5c\u94f6\u884c\uff08Rabobank\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u82f1\u683c\u5170\u94f6\u884c\uff08BoE\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\uff09\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08MPC\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u51b3\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7684\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff09\u5c06\u57284\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u628a\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\uff08Bank Rate\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\u7ef4\u6301\u57283.75%\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u504f\u8c28\u614e\u3002\u8be5\u884c\u628a\u8fd9\u4e00\u5224\u65ad\u4e0e\u8fd1\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u8d8b\u7a33\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u884c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u9700\u6c42\u8d70\u5f31\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0e2022\u5e74\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u653f\u7b56\u5df2\u5c5e\u504f\u7d27\uff08restrictive policy\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u8f83\u9ad8\u3001\u6291\u5236\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u6761\u4ef6\u8f83\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u5f15\u53d1\u201c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u8f6e\u6548\u5e94\u201d\uff08second-round effects\uff0c\u6307\u7269\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e26\u52a8\u5de5\u8d44\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u8fde\u9501\u63a8\u5347\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u77ed\u671f\u901a\u80c0<\/h3>\n<p>\u8be5\u884c\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\uff08Strait of Hormuz\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91cd\u8981\u77f3\u6cb9\u8fd0\u8f93\u901a\u9053\uff09\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u5173\u95ed\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5b83\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u82e5\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u6301\u7eed\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u6d4b\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0b\u4fee\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Rabobank\u79f0\uff0c\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u51b2\u51fb\uff08inflation impulse\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u7269\u4ef7\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff09\u5c06\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\u201c\u56fa\u5316\u201d\uff08entrenched inflation\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u8f83\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u96be\u4ee5\u4e0b\u964d\uff09\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u524d\u666f\u4ecd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u8be5\u884c\u4ecd\u9884\u8ba1\u5229\u7387\u4f1a\u518d\u4e0a\u8c03\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f1a\u91cd\u542f\u4e00\u8f6e\u6301\u7eed\u52a0\u606f\uff08rate-hiking cycle\uff0c\u4e00\u8fde\u4e32\u52a0\u606f\u884c\u52a8\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u5229\u7387\u6ce2\u52a8\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5df2\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u538b\u529b\u3002\u6700\u65b02026\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\uff08Q1 2026\uff09\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u603b\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff09\u4ec5\u589e\u957f0.1%\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002\u75b2\u5f31\u8868\u73b0\u4ee4MPC\u9762\u4e34\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u653e\u677e\u504f\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u504f\u9ecf\uff08sticky inflation\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u56de\u843d\u7f13\u6162\u3001\u8f83\u96be\u964d\u4e0b\u6765\uff09\u4e0e\u589e\u957f\u505c\u6ede\u4e4b\u95f4\u62c9\u626f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5229\u7387\u6ce2\u52a8\uff08rates volatility\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u7a33\u59a5\u3002\u53ef\u8003\u8651\u4f7f\u7528SONIA\u671f\u8d27\uff08SONIA futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u82f1\u9551\u9694\u591c\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u5747\u5229\u7387\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\u7684\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff09\u671f\u6743\uff08options\uff0c\u8d4b\u4e88\u4e70\u5356\u6743\u5229\u4f46\u975e\u4e49\u52a1\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8de8\u5f0f\u7b56\u7565\uff08straddles\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u4f46\u4e0d\u62bc\u65b9\u5411\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u5728\u5229\u7387\u5411\u4e0a\u6216\u5411\u4e0b\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u53d8\u52a8\u65f6\u83b7\u5229\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u8ba1\u5165\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u4e24\u6b21\u5b8c\u6574\u964d\u606f\uff08rate cuts\uff0c\u8c03\u4f4e\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u8def\u5f84\u504f\u79bb\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u5feb\u901f\u91cd\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff08repricing\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u8fc5\u901f\u8c03\u6574\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u82e5\u6709\u660e\u786e\u65b9\u5411\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u75b2\u5f31\u589e\u957f\u80cc\u666f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u62bc\u6ce8\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u4f4e\u8f83\u5408\u7406\u3002\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u5229\u7387\u4e92\u6362\uff08interest rate swaps\uff0c\u7528\u56fa\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u6d6e\u52a8\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u6362\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff0c\u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u62bc\u6ce8\u6216\u5bf9\u51b2\u5229\u7387\u53d8\u5316\uff09\u5efa\u7acb\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff0c\u6216\u505a\u591aSONIA\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u7ea6\uff08go long\uff0c\u4e70\u5165\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u62bc\u5408\u7ea6\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\uff1b\u5728\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\u4e2d\u901a\u5e38\u5bf9\u5e94\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\uff09\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u8c28\u614e\u628a\u63e1\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u665a\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rabobank\u6599\u82f1\u592e\u884c4\u6708\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u3001\u7acb\u573a\u504f\u8c28\u614e\uff1a\u9700\u6c42\u8d70\u5f31\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u4f4e\u6216\u538b\u77ed\u671f\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u4f46GDP\u8fd1\u96f6\u589e\u957f\u4ee4\u5bbd\u677e\u538b\u529b\u5347\u3002\u5229\u7387\u6ce2\u52a8\u6216\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u53ef\u7528SONIA\u671f\u6743\u8de8\u5f0f\u6355\u6349\u91cd\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45571"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45571\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}