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\u7f8e\u56fd\u53f8\u6cd5\u90e8\uff08DOJ\uff09\u57284\u670824\u65e5\u7ec8\u6b62\u5bf9\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u5c40\uff08Fed\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff09\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6770\u7f57\u59c6\u00b7\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\uff08Jerome Powell\uff09\u7684\u5211\u4e8b\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u5e76\u6309\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u628a\u6d89\u53ca25\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u603b\u90e8\u7ffb\u65b0\u4e8b\u9879\uff0c\u79fb\u4ea4\u7ed9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u76d1\u5bdf\u957f\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\uff08Office of Inspector General\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0OIG\uff0c\u8d1f\u8d23\u5185\u90e8\u5ba1\u8ba1\u4e0e\u8c03\u67e5\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u76d1\u7763\u5355\u4f4d\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u4e3e\u7b26\u5408\u5171\u548c\u515a\u53c2\u8bae\u5458\u6c64\u59c6\u00b7\u8482\u5229\u65af\uff08Thom Tillis\uff09\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u3001\u7528\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u51ef\u6587\u00b7\u6c83\u4ec0\uff08Kevin Warsh\uff09\u4efb\u547d\u786e\u8ba4\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f46\u5916\u754c\u5f62\u5bb9\u5c40\u52bf\u4ecd\u7136\u8106\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u94f6\u884c\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u9884\u8ba1\u57284\u670829\u65e5\u7f8e\u4e1c\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u534810\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u6c83\u4ec0\u7684\u4efb\u547d\u8fdb\u884c\u8868\u51b3\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u8ddd\u79bb\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8d1f\u8d23\u5236\u5b9a\u5229\u7387\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff09\u7684\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\u4ec5\u6570\u5c0f\u65f6\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u628a\u8fd9\u9879\u63d0\u540d\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e3a\u201c\u9e3d\u6d3e\u201d\uff08dovish\uff0c\u504f\u5411\u964d\u606f\u4e0e\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

Markets Focus On Leadership Transition<\/h3>\n

\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u518d\u521b\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u6cb9\u57fa\u51c6\uff09\u56de\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u6876100\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u4e5f\u5173\u6ce8\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u4ee5\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8eab\u4efd\u4e3b\u6301\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u573aFOMC\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\uff0c\u7126\u70b9\u5728\u4e8e\u4ed6\u662f\u5426\u8ba1\u5212\u7ee7\u7eed\u4ee5\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7406\u4e8b\uff08Governor\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u51b3\u7b56\u5c42\u6210\u5458\uff09\u8eab\u4efd\u7559\u4efb\u81f32028\u5e741\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56de\u770b2025\u5e74\u540c\u671f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u66fe\u56e0\u6c83\u4ec0\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u4efb\u65b0\u4efb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u800c\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002\u5176\u786e\u8ba4\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u9e3d\u6d3e\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u4ee4\u80a1\u5e02\u5728\u9ad8\u6cb9\u4ef7\u62c5\u5fe7\u4e0b\u4ecd\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u3002\u7531\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u6c83\u4ec0\uff0c\u8ba9\u5e02\u573a\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u66f4\u5bbd\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7531\u6c83\u4ec0\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u57282025\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u786e\u5b9e\u4e24\u5ea6\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u80c0\uff08inflation\uff0c\u7269\u4ef7\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u987d\u56fa\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u76842026\u5e743\u6708\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff08CPI\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u5c45\u6c11\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u663e\u793a\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u8fbe3.9%\uff0c\u4ee4\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8fdb\u9000\u4e24\u96be\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u4e5f\u4ece\u671f\u5f85\u66f4\u591a\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u8f6c\u4e3a\u62c5\u5fc3\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u201c\u53cd\u5411\u201d\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u6682\u505c\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u91cd\u65b0\u8003\u8651\u52a0\u606f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u610f\u5473\u7740\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5468\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u671f\u6743\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6307\u6570\uff08CBOE VIX\uff0c\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u201c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6570\u201d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff09\u5df2\u4ece\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7ea614\u7684\u4f4e\u4f4d\u5347\u81f320\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u524d\u7684\u7126\u8651\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u6743\u5229\u91d1\uff08option premiums\uff0c\u4e70\u671f\u6743\u6240\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff09\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u589e\u52a0\u907f\u9669\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

Derivatives Positioning For Volatility<\/h3>\n

\u5bf9\u884d\u751f\u54c1\uff08derivatives\uff0c\u4ef7\u503c\u6765\u81ea\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6c47\u7387\u7b49\u6807\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u73af\u5883\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u5173\u6ce8\u201c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7b56\u7565\u201d\uff08\u4ee5\u6ce2\u52a8\u5927\u5c0f\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u83b7\u5229\u6765\u6e90\uff09\u3002\u5728\u6807\u666e500\u7b49\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u4e70\u5165\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08straddle\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u4e0e\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff09\u6216\u5bbd\u8de8\u5f0f\uff08strangle\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53ea\u8981\u4ef7\u683c\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u51b2\u6216\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u83b7\u5229\uff0c\u65e0\u9700\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u7d27\u7ef7\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4efb\u4f55\u610f\u5916\u8868\u6001\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u5feb\u901f\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5229\u7387\u5e02\u573a\u4e5f\u5728\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u5e26\u6765\u4e0e\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\u6700\u654f\u611f\u76842\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff082-year Treasury yield\uff09\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u5df2\u4e0a\u5347\u8d85\u8fc750\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff08basis points\uff0c1\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9=0.01\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff09\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u57284.75%\u9644\u8fd1\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7\u56fd\u503a\u671f\u8d27\u671f\u6743\uff08options on Treasury futures\uff0c\u4ee5\u56fd\u503a\u671f\u8d27\u4e3a\u6807\u7684\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff09\u5e03\u5c40\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8feb\u91ca\u653e\u66f4\u201c\u9e70\u6d3e\u201d\uff08hawkish\uff0c\u66f4\u504f\u5411\u52a0\u606f\u6216\u6536\u7d27\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u538b\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u6765\u5bf9\u6297\u901a\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5185\u90e8\u529b\u91cf\u53d8\u5316\u4e5f\u662f\u5173\u952e\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u82e5\u7ee7\u7eed\u62c5\u4efb\u7406\u4e8b\u81f32028\u5e74\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u4f20\u51fa\u6c83\u4ec0\u7684\u9e3d\u6d3e\u9635\u8425\u4e0e\u66f4\u8c28\u614e\u6d3e\u4e4b\u95f4\u5206\u6b67\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u8c28\u614e\u6d3e\u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5e26\u5934\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5185\u90e8\u62c9\u626f\u589e\u52a0\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u957f\u5929\u671f\uff08long-dated\uff0c\u8ddd\u79bb\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u66f4\u4e45\uff09\u7684\u671f\u6743\u5bf9\u770b\u597d\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u4eba\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

DOJ\u7ec8\u6b62\u8c03\u67e5\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5e76\u79fb\u4ea4OIG\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u4efb\u547d\u8868\u51b3\u903c\u8fd1FOMC\u5f15\u7206\u201c\u9e3d\u6d3e\u201d\u9884\u671f\uff1b\u4f46\u901a\u80c03.9%\u3001VIX\u783420\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u4e0e\u5229\u7387\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u6210\u7126\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[129],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45649"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45649\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}