{"id":45674,"date":"2026-04-27T18:32:40","date_gmt":"2026-04-27T18:32:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/uncategorized\/guntermann-%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e6%ac%a7%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86%e6%8c%89%e5%85%b5%e4%b8%8d%e5%8a%a8%ef%bc%8c%e5%9b%a0%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e6%8e%a8%e5%8d%87%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%94\/"},"modified":"2026-04-27T18:32:40","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T18:32:40","slug":"guntermann-%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e6%ac%a7%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86%e6%8c%89%e5%85%b5%e4%b8%8d%e5%8a%a8%ef%bc%8c%e5%9b%a0%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e6%8e%a8%e5%8d%87%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%94","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarketsmy.com\/cn\/live-updates\/guntermann-%e9%a2%84%e8%ae%a1%e6%ac%a7%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e5%b0%86%e6%8c%89%e5%85%b5%e4%b8%8d%e5%8a%a8%ef%bc%8c%e5%9b%a0%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e6%8e%a8%e5%8d%87%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%94\/","title":{"rendered":"Guntermann \u9884\u8ba1\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\uff0c\u56e0\u80fd\u6e90\u63a8\u5347\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u4e144\u6708\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u6682\u65f6\u56de\u843d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6b27\u5143\u533a4\u6708\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4ef7\u683c\u6570\u636e\u5c06\u4e8e\u672c\u5468\u516c\u5e03\uff1a\u5404\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u4ece\u5468\u4e09\u8d77\u9646\u7eed\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u5468\u56db\u516c\u5e03\u6b27\u5143\u533aHICP\uff08\u7edf\u4e00\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u901a\u7528\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\uff09\u7684\u201c\u5feb\u62a5\u201d\uff08\u5148\u884c\u4f30\u7b97\u503c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c4\u6708\u603b\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\uff08headline inflation\uff0c\u628a\u6240\u6709\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u4ef7\u683c\u90fd\u7b97\u8fdb\u53bb\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u5c06\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u63a8\u52a8\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\uff08core inflation\uff0c\u5254\u9664\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u98df\u54c1\u7b49\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\u7684\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u66f4\u80fd\u53cd\u6620\u957f\u671f\u4ef7\u683c\u538b\u529b\uff09\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u77ed\u6682\u56de\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n

ECB\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u5c55\u671b<\/h3>\n

\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\uff08ECB\uff09\u672c\u5468\u5c06\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u73b0\u5728\u52a0\u606f\u4ecd\u663e\u5f97\u8fc7\u65e9\u3002<\/p>\n

ECB\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5728\u201c\u4e25\u91cd\u60c5\u666f\u201d\uff08severe scenario\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6cb9\u4ef7\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u6876145\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u5047\u8bbe\uff09\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u5e76\u672a\u660e\u786e\u663e\u793a\u9700\u8981\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u4ecd\u672a\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u201c\u4ef7\u683c\u4f20\u5bfc\u201d\uff08price pass-through\uff0c\u539f\u6cb9\u7b49\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u9010\u6b65\u8f6c\u5ac1\u5230\u8fd0\u8f93\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u4e0e\u7ec8\u7aef\u552e\u4ef7\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u63a8\u9ad8\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\uff09\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u4fc3\u4f7fECB\u57286\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0cECB\u672c\u5468\u4f1a\u4fdd\u6301\u201c\u5e73\u8861\u5f0f\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u201d\uff1a\u5373\u627f\u8ba4\u98ce\u9669\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u6682\u4e0d\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5373\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u76844\u6708\u901a\u80c0\u5927\u6982\u7387\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u80fd\u6e90\u62c9\u52a8\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u603b\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u77ed\u6682\u4e0a\u51b2\uff0c\u800c\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u4e0b\u6ed1\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u89c2\u671b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u66f4\u5173\u952e\u76846\u6708\u8bae\u606f\u4f1a\u8bae\u94fa\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u805a\u71266\u6708\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u98ce\u9669<\/h3>\n

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\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\uff1a6\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u98ce\u9669\u4ecd\u672a\u89e3\u9664\u3002\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\uff08derivative markets\uff0c\u4ee5\u671f\u8d27\u3001\u671f\u6743\u3001\u6389\u671f\u7b49\u5408\u7ea6\u6765\u4ea4\u6613\u5229\u7387\/\u6c47\u7387\u9884\u671f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff09\u76ee\u524d\u53ea\u8ba1\u5165\u7ea640%\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53ea\u8981\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u6216\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u201c\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4ef7\u201d\uff08repricing\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u8fc5\u901f\u4fee\u6b63\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u843d\u5dee\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8d27\uff08short-term interest rate futures\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u672a\u6765\u77ed\u7aef\u5229\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\uff09\u4e0e\u671f\u6743\uff08options\uff0c\u652f\u4ed8\u6743\u5229\u91d1\u540e\u83b7\u5f97\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e70\/\u5356\u7684\u6743\u5229\uff09\u5e26\u6765\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u5e94\u4f4e\u4f30ECB\u51fa\u624b\u7684\u610f\u613f\u30022022\u5e74\u4e2d\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\u5df2\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\uff08inflation expectations\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e0e\u6da8\u85aa\uff09\u6210\u4e3a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc5\u901f\u4e14\u5f3a\u786c\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5c40\u52bf\u6ca1\u6709\u7f13\u548c\uff0c6\u6708\u8fdb\u884c\u201c\u9884\u9632\u5f0f\u52a0\u606f\u201d\uff08precautionary hike\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u9632\u6b62\u901a\u80c0\u5931\u63a7\u800c\u63d0\u524d\u52a0\u606f\uff09\u7b26\u5408\u8fd9\u4e00\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf96\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\u5230\u671f\u7684\u671f\u6743\u5174\u8da3\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728EUR\/USD\uff08\u6b27\u5143\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u4e0a\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8de8\u5f0f\u671f\u6743\uff08straddle\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u540c\u4e00\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u6ce2\u52a8\u53d8\u5927\uff09\u6216\u5bbd\u8de8\u5f0f\u671f\u6743\uff08strangle\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u4e0e\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u4f4e\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u7b49\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u7b56\u7565\u4e70\u5165\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08buying volatility\uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u6c47\u4ef7\/\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u8f83\u7a33\u59a5\u3002\u82e5\u51fa\u73b0\u9884\u9632\u5f0f\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u5f3a\uff1b\u82e5\u7ee7\u7eed\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u4e14\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u8f6c\u5f31\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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